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Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:liu-145557" > Potential applicati...

Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

White, Christopher J. (författare)
School of Engineering and ICT, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia / Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Hobart, Australia
Carlsen, Henrik (författare)
Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
Robertson, Andrew W. (författare)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
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Klein, Richard J T, 1969- (författare)
Stockholm Environment Institute, Bonn, Germany
Lazo, Jeffrey K. (författare)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), Boulder, CO, USA
Kumar, Arun (författare)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC), College Park, MD, USA
Vitart, Frederic (författare)
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Coughlan de Perez, Erin (författare)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA / Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
Ray, Andrea J. (författare)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Boulder, CO, USA
Murray, Virginia (författare)
Public Health England (PHE), London, UK
Bharwani, Sukaina (författare)
Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford, UK
MacLeod, Dave (författare)
Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, UK
James, Rachel (författare)
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK
Fleming, Lora (författare)
European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Truro, UK
Morse, Andrew P. (författare)
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, UK
Eggen, Bernd (författare)
Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England (PHE), Chilton, UK
Graham, Richard (författare)
UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Kjellström, Erik (författare)
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Becker, Emily (författare)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC), College Park, MD, USA
Pegion, Kathleen V. (författare)
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
Holbrook, Neil J. (författare)
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
McEvoy, Darryn (författare)
Global Cities Research Institute, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
Depledge, Michael (författare)
European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Truro, UK
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah (författare)
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Brown, Timothy J. (författare)
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA
Street, Roger (författare)
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), University of Oxford, UK
Jones, Lindsey (författare)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), UK
Remenyi, Tomas A. (författare)
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Hobart, Australia
Hodgson-Johnston, Indi (författare)
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Hobart, Australia
Buontempo, Carlo (författare)
UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Lamb, Rob (författare)
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK / JBA Trust, Skipton, UK
Meinke, Holger (författare)
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Arheimer, Berit (författare)
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Zebiak, Stephen E. (författare)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA / Climate Information Services Ltd, Tappan, NY, USA
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 (creator_code:org_t)
John Wiley & Sons, 2017
2017
Engelska.
Ingår i: Meteorological Applications. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 24:3, s. 315-325
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
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  • While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

Ämnesord

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Environmental Management (hsv//eng)
TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Miljöledning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Software Engineering (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Programvaruteknik (hsv//swe)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Media and Communications -- Information Systems, Social aspects (hsv//eng)
SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Medie- och kommunikationsvetenskap -- Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning (hsv//swe)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Other Social Sciences -- Social Sciences Interdisciplinary (hsv//eng)
SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Annan samhällsvetenskap -- Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap (Datateknik) (hsv//swe)
TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik (hsv//swe)
SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Medie- och kommunikationsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Annan samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences (hsv//eng)
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering (hsv//eng)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Media and Communications (hsv//eng)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Other Social Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

climate prediction
forecasting
decision-support
ensemble forecasts
extremes
extended-range
seasonal prediction

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