Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,wedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, S-90183 Umea, Sweden.,Institutionen för vatten och miljö,Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Umeå universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap,Climate Impacts Research Centre (CIRC),Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, Climate Impacts Res Ctr, S-90187 Umea, Sweden.;INRA, AgroImpact UPR1158, New York, NY USA.
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske (hsv//swe)
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (hsv//eng)