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Model averaging ver...
Model averaging versus model selection : estimating design floods with uncertain river flow data
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- Okoli, Kenechukwu (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden
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- Breinl, Korbinian (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden
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- Brandimarte, Luigia (författare)
- KTH,Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik,Royal Inst Technol, Dept Sustainable Dev Environm Sci & Engn, Stockholm, Sweden
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- Botto, Anna (författare)
- Univ Padua, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Padua, Italy.
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- Volpi, Elena (författare)
- Univ Roma Tre, Dept Sci Ingn Civile, Rome, Italy.
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- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2018-12-06
- 2018
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63:13-14, s. 1913-1926
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- This study compares model averaging and model selection methods to estimate design floods, while accounting for the observation error that is typically associated with annual maximum flow data. Model selection refers to methods where a single distribution function is chosen based on prior knowledge or by means of selection criteria. Model averaging refers to methods where the results of multiple distribution functions are combined. Numerical experiments were carried out by generating synthetic data using the Wakeby distribution function as the parent distribution. For this study, comparisons were made in terms of relative error and root mean square error (RMSE) referring to the 1-in-100 year flood. The experiments show that model averaging and model selection methods lead to similar results, especially when short samples are drawn from a highly asymmetric parent. Also, taking an arithmetic average of all design flood estimates gives estimated variances similar to those obtained with more complex weighted model averaging.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- model averaging
- model selection
- design flood
- Akaike information criterion
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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