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Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Henley, B. J. (författare)
Meehl, G. (författare)
Power, S. B. (författare)
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Folland, Chris K. (författare)
Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences
King, A. D. (författare)
Brown, J. N. (författare)
Karoly, D. J. (författare)
Delage, F. (författare)
Gallant, A. J. E. (författare)
Freund, M. (författare)
Neukom, R. (författare)
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2017
2017
Engelska.
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - 1748-9326. ; 12:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
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  • Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumvents assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4-0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Variability
IPO
PDO
decadal oscillation
surface-temperature
hiatus periods
warming
hiatus
cmip5 models
variability
circulation
modulation
mechanism
impact
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

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