| 41. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 42. |
- Klingberg, Sofia, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Increase in waist circumference over 6 years predicts subsequent cardiovascular disease and total mortality in nordic women.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.). - : Wiley. - 1930-739X .- 1930-7381. ; 23:10, s. 2123-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite solid evidence of an association between centralized body fatness and subsequent disease risk, little is known about the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. Recently it was shown that large hip circumference (HC), measured once, was protective against total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women but that gain or loss in HC was unrelated to these outcomes. This study examines whether a 6-year change in waist circumference (WC) predicts mortality and CVD in the same study sample.
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| 43. |
- Klingberg, Sofia, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Loss of height predicts total and cardiovascular mortality: a cohort study of northern European women
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective To examine height changes in middle-aged northern European women in relation to overall and cardiovascular mortality. Design Population-based cohort studies with longitudinally measured heights and register-based mortality. Setting Sweden and Denmark. Participants Population-based samples of 2406 Swedish and Danish women born on selected years in 1908-1952, recruited to baseline examinations at ages 30-60, and re-examined 10-13 years later. Main outcome measure Total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) specific mortality during 17-19 years of follow-up after last height measure. Results For each 1 cm height loss during 10-13 years, the HR (95% CI) for total mortality was 1.14 (1.05 to 1.23) in Swedish women and 1.21 (1.09 to 1.35) in Danish women, independent of key covariates. Low height and high leisure time physical activity at baseline were protective of height loss, independent of age. Considering total mortality, the HR for major height loss, defined as height loss greater than 2 cm, were 1.74 (1.32 to 2.29) in Swedish women and 1.80 (1.27 to 2.54) in Danish women. Pooled analyses indicated that height loss was monotonically associated with an increased mortality, confirming a significant effect above 2 cm height loss. For cause-specific mortality, major height loss was associated with a HR of 2.31 (1.09 to 4.87) for stroke mortality, 2.14 (1.47 to 3.12) for total CVD mortality and 1.71 (1.28 to 2.29) for mortality due to causes other than CVD. Conclusion Height loss is a marker for excess mortality in northern European women. Specifically the hazard of CVD mortality is increased in women with height loss during middle age, and the results suggest that the strongest cause-specific endpoint may be stroke mortality. The present findings suggest attention to height loss in early and mid-adulthood to identify women at high risk of CVD, and that regular physical activity may prevent early onset height loss.
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| 44. |
- Lapidus, L, et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol intake among women and its relationship to diabetes incidence and all-cause mortality: the 32-year follow-up of a population study of women in Gothenburg, Sweden
- 2005
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. ; 28, s. 2230-2235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Department of Primary Health Care, Sahlgrenska Uni, Göteborg University, Box 454 S-405 30 Göteborg, Sweden. leif.lapidus@swipnet.se OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to explore the predictive value of women's alcohol habits in relation to incidence of diabetes and all-cause mortality. Special attention was paid to potential confounding factors such as age, heredity, education, socioeconomic group, physical inactivity, smoking, blood pressure, serum lipids, and, in particular, obesity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A longitudinal population study consisting of a representative sample of 1,462 women aged 38-60 started in Göteborg, Sweden, in 1968-1969 monitoring for diabetes and mortality over 32 years. RESULTS: Alcohol intake, expressed as intake of wine, hard liquor, or total grams of alcohol, was significantly negatively associated to 32-year diabetes incidence independent of age. However, the apparently protective effect of the alcohol variables was attenuated when BMI was included as a covariate. The inverse relationship between wine intake and diabetes did not remain after adjustment for physical activity or socioeconomic group. Beer and wine intake were significantly negatively associated to mortality. Increase of alcohol intake between the examination in 1968-1969 and 1980-1981 was significantly inversely related to the mortality between 1980-1981 and 2000-2001 and independent of all covariates. No relationship was observed between an increase in alcohol intake and diabetes incidence. However, after adjustment for age, family history, and basal alcohol consumption altogether, a significant inverse relationship was observed between increase of alcohol and diabetes incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The initially significant inverse associations observed between alcohol and diabetes as well as mortality were dependent on a number of confounding factors, of which BMI seems to be the most important. PMID: 16123495 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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| 45. |
- Lapidus, Leif, 1950, et al.
(författare)
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Weight and length at birth and their relationship to diabetes incidence and all-cause mortality--a 32-year follow-up of the population study of women in Gothenburg, Sweden
- 2008
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Ingår i: Primary Care Diabetes. ; 2, s. 127-133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Department of Primary Health Care, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden. leif.lapidus@vgregion.se OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to explore the relationship of weight and length at birth to diabetes in adult life and to all-cause mortality. Special attention was taken to potential confounding factors as age, family history, education, socio-economic group, physical inactivity, smoking, blood pressure, serum lipids and obesity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A longitudinal population study consisting of a representative sample of 1381 women aged 38-54 started in Gothenburg, Sweden, in 1968-1969 monitoring for diabetes mellitus and overall mortality over 32 years. Original delivery records were retrieved for 61.2% of the women. Death certificates were obtained for 99.3% the women who died during the 32-year follow-up period. RESULTS: We observed an inverse statistically significant relationship between birth weight and 32-year diabetes incidence independent of age, the highest incidence 16.3% in the lowest quartile of birth weight compared to 9.2% in the highest quartile. The relationship remained when controlling for the following covariates: education, socio-economic group, physical activity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, adult body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio, serum triglycerides and cholesterol. When overweight women (BMI> or =25) were excluded from the statistical analyses birth weight was even stronger related to the incidence of diabetes, 12.8% in lowest quartile and 5.7% in the highest quartile of birth weight independent of birth length, education, socio-economic group, physical activity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist-hip ratio, blood glucose, serum triglycerides and cholesterol. Length at birth was a predictor for diabetes independent of age plus adult body mass index (BMI) and smoking but not independent of age only. No significant associations were observed between birth factors as birth weight and birth length and overall mortality during the 32-year of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: A low birth weight seems to be a risk factor for diabetes in adult women independent of age and most of the established risk factors for diabetes.
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| 46. |
- Leong, Tora, et al.
(författare)
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Asymmetric dimethylarginine independently predicts fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke in women : 24 year follow up of the Population Study of Women in Gothenburg
- 2008
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Ingår i: Arteriosclerosis, thrombosis, and vascular biology. - 1079-5642. ; 28:5, s. 961-967
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA) reduces nitric oxide by inhibiting nitric oxide synthase is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our study examined the association of ADMA with CVD prospectively in a healthy population-based cohort of women. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured baseline ADMA of 880 women in the Population Study of Women in Gothenburg using high-performance liquid chromatography. After adjustment for traditional risk factors, creatinine clearance, and homocysteine using Cox models, the HR (95% CI in parentheses) of CVD end points at 24 years for a 0.15 micromol/L (1 SD) increase in ADMA were: all-cause mortality 1.12 (0.96, 1.32), fatal CVD 1.30 (1.04, 1.62), total CVD events 1.29 (1.09, 1.53). The top quintile (ADMA >or=0.71 micromol/L) compared with the bottom four-fifths, conferred a cumulative risk 22 versus 14%, relative risk 1.75 (95% CI 1.18, 2.59) and population attributable risk 12.7% of total CVD events, and further identified individuals who are at higher than expected risk based on the SCORE and Framingham systems. CONCLUSIONS: A 0.15 mumol/L increase in baseline ADMA levels is associated with approximately 30% increase in incident cardiovascular risk at 24 years in women after adjustment. ADMA levels >or=0.71 micromol/L enhances CVD risk assessment in women.
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| 47. |
- Leu Agelii, Monica, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Low vitamin D status in relation to cardiovascular disease and mortality in Swedish women - Effect of extended follow-up
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nutrition Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases. - : Elsevier BV. - 0939-4753 .- 1590-3729. ; 27:12, s. 1143-1151
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims: The impact of vitamin D concentrations on subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and overall mortality has been generally examined for periods under two decades. The magnitude of the association may depend on follow-up length. We aimed to investigate the relationship between baseline vitamin D and risk of total CVD, stroke and all-cause mortality over three decades of follow-up. Secondly, we aimed to assess how follow-up affects the associations. Methods and results: Concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25D) were measured in a population-based sample of 1227 middle-aged women using serum collected at baseline and categorized into low (lowest 25D quartile) vs high 25D status (upper three 25D quartiles). Hazard ratio (HR) of the endpoints was estimated for low 25D. The impact of follow-up was examined in intermediary analyses where follow-up was interrupted up to four times, each time decreasing it by five years. There were 596 cardiovascular events and 635 participants died. During the first 17 years, the low 25D group experienced a 29% higher CVD risk and 3.3-fold higher stroke risk after accounting for confounders. Longer follow-up diminished significantly these risks and 25D status had no contribution at 32 years. For mortality, the decline over time was less dramatic, with HR = 1.96 (1.25; 3.08) at 17 years and HR = 1.42 (1.17; 1.72) at 37 years. Conclusion: Low 25D status increased the risk for all endpoints, but a lengthy follow-up diminished these risks towards the null. The impact of follow-up depends on the outcome. Future studies of 25D and disease should use repeated 25D assessments. (C) 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
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| 48. |
- Leu, Monica, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Quality Assessment of 25(OH)D, Insulin, Total Cholesterol, Triglycerides, and Potassium in 40-Year-Old Frozen Serum
- 2015
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Ingår i: Epidemiology Research International. - : Hindawi Limited. - 2090-2980 .- 2090-2972. ; 2015
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Many longitudinal epidemiological studies collect specimens into biobanks to investigate how biomarkers predict future disease. In 1968-1969, the Population Study of Women in Gothenburg (PSWG) established a biobank. Objective: To examine the validity of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), total cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin and potassium after 40 years of storage at -20⁰C in terms of relative and absolute agreement. The quality of these markers under such condition has not been previously investigated. Methods: Baseline- and re-measured levels were compared in selected samples through percentage change, correlation and regression. 25(OH)D levels, not assessed at baseline, were compared by season, by BMI and longitudinally over six years. Results: Despite some lack of absolute agreement, Spearman correlations were >0.7 and statistically significant for all biomarkers. The 1968-1969 25(OH)D correlated with BMI (r=-0.45, p=0.05) and with levels six years later (r=0.85, p<0.001). Summer 25(OH)D was higher than winter 25(OH)D (p=0.02). Conclusion: For all markers, baseline- and re-measured levels exhibited high relative agreement. 25(OH)D was comparable with expected levels on fresh blood and varied with season. In future studies, PSWG individuals will be ranked according to these markers in order to follow incidence of disease.
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| 49. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
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Ingår i: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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| 50. |
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