| 1. |
- Arnqvist, Per, 1963-
(författare)
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Allowing Left Truncated and Censored Fertility Data in the Normal Waiting Model
- 1995
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Models describing marital fertility are under consideration. In Arnqvist (Research Report 2, Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University), a normal approximation of the waiting model was introduced. In this report a modification of the normal approximation is suggested. This specification allows the data to be left truncated and censored, which gives the possibility to apply the normally approximated waiting model in datasets as from the United Nations World Fertility Services. The model is appropriate except for extremely high fertility intensities, when it gives rise to bias in the parameter estimations. In this case, therefore, a bootstrap method is suggested to estimate and correct the bias. This means that the normal approximated waiting model is a good competitor to the well known Poisson or Coale-Trussell model. It also uses an understandable fertility specification.
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| 2. |
- Arnqvist, Per, 1963-
(författare)
-
Approximation of the waiting model
- 1995
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In an attempt to estimate the level of family planning in a population, Coale-Trussell suggested an intensity model based on five year summarized data as given in the reports of the United Nations. Their model is denoted Coale-Trussell model. To make inference in the model, it was assumed that the pregnancy data in the model followed a Poisson process. In Arnqvist (research report 1, 1995, Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University), a modification of the Poisson assumption in the intensity model was suggested, introducing waiting time after the pregnancies. The resulting model was named the waiting model. The aim of this paper is to compare the Coale-Trussell model with the waiting model when data of the form given in UN World Fertility Surveys are used (Table 1). By using a normal approximation of the first two moments of the number of pregnancies, the asymptotic variance of the estimators of the interesting parameters is given. Simulation studies show that the Coale-Trussell model and the normal approximation model both approximate the lower intensities in the waiting model well. However, the Coale-Trussell model gives essentially biased estimates of the intensities for high birth intensities.
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| 3. |
- Arnqvist, Per, 1963-
(författare)
-
Aspects of the Coale-Trussell Model
- 1995
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Coale-Trussell model for marital fertility is investigated. The assumption that the data follow a Poisson model is invalidated by empirical evidence. The data are less spread than assumed, which indicates a point process which is undersdispersed relative to the Poisson model. By generalizing the Poisson model, by using a more realistic assumption about spacing between births, eg. allowing for a constant delay after each birth, we produce a better and more natural descripton of human reproduction.
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