| 801. |
- Ackermann, M., et al.
(författare)
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FERMI-LAT OBSERVATIONS OF THE DIFFUSE γ-RAY EMISSION : IMPLICATIONS FOR COSMIC RAYS AND THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 750:1, s. 3-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gamma-ray sky >100MeVis dominated by the diffuse emissions from interactions of cosmic rays with the interstellar gas and radiation fields of the Milky Way. Observations of these diffuse emissions provide a tool to study cosmic-ray origin and propagation, and the interstellar medium. We present measurements from the first 21 months of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) mission and compare with models of the diffuse gamma-ray emission generated using the GALPROP code. The models are fitted to cosmic-ray data and incorporate astrophysical input for the distribution of cosmic-ray sources, interstellar gas, and radiation fields. To assess uncertainties associated with the astrophysical input, a grid of models is created by varying within observational limits the distribution of cosmic-ray sources, the size of the cosmic-ray confinement volume (halo), and the distribution of interstellar gas. An all-sky maximum-likelihood fit is used to determine the X-CO factor, the ratio between integrated CO-line intensity and H-2 column density, the fluxes and spectra of the gamma-ray point sources from the first Fermi-LAT catalog, and the intensity and spectrum of the isotropic background including residual cosmic rays that were misclassified as gamma-rays, all of which have some dependency on the assumed diffuse emission model. The models are compared on the basis of their maximum-likelihood ratios as well as spectra, longitude, and latitude profiles. We also provide residual maps for the data following subtraction of the diffuse emission models. The models are consistent with the data at high and intermediate latitudes but underpredict the data in the inner Galaxy for energies above a few GeV. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed, including the contribution by undetected point-source populations and spectral variations of cosmic rays throughout the Galaxy. In the outer Galaxy, we find that the data prefer models with a flatter distribution of cosmic-ray sources, a larger cosmic-ray halo, or greater gas density than is usually assumed. Our results in the outer Galaxy are consistent with other Fermi-LAT studies of this region that used different analysis methods than employed in this paper.
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| 802. |
- Ackermann, M., et al.
(författare)
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Searches for cosmic-ray electron anisotropies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope
- 2010
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Ingår i: PHYS REV D. - 1550-7998. ; 82:9, s. 092003-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi satellite (Fermi LAT) detected more than 1.6 x 10(6) cosmic-ray electrons/positrons with energies above 60 GeV during its first year of operation. The arrival directions of these events were searched for anisotropies of angular scale extending from similar to 10 degrees up to 90 degrees, and of minimum energy extending from 60 GeV up to 480 GeV. Two independent techniques were used to search for anisotropies, both resulting in null results. Upper limits on the degree of the anisotropy were set that depended on the analyzed energy range and on the anisotropy's angular scale. The upper limits for a dipole anisotropy ranged from similar to 0.5% to similar to 10%.
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| 803. |
- Ackermann, M., et al.
(författare)
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The Fermi All-Sky Variability Analysis : A List Of Flaring Gamma-Ray Sources And The Search For Transients In Our Galaxy
- 2013
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 771:1, s. 57-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we present the Fermi All-sky Variability Analysis (FAVA), a tool to systematically study the variability of the gamma-ray sky measured by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. For each direction on the sky, FAVA compares the number of gamma-rays observed in a given time window to the number of gamma-rays expected for the average emission detected from that direction. This method is used in weekly time intervals to derive a list of 215 flaring gamma-ray sources. We proceed to discuss the 27 sources found at Galactic latitudes smaller than 10 degrees and show that, despite their low latitudes, most of them are likely of extragalactic origin.
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| 804. |
- Ackermann, M., et al.
(författare)
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THE RADIO/GAMMA-RAY CONNECTION IN ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI IN THE ERA OF THE FERMI LARGE AREA TELESCOPE
- 2011
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 741:1, s. 30-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a detailed statistical analysis of the correlation between radio and gamma-ray emission of the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) detected by Fermi during its first year of operation, with the largest data sets ever used for this purpose. We use both archival interferometric 8.4 GHz data (from the Very Large Array and ATCA, for the full sample of 599 sources) and concurrent single-dish 15 GHz measurements from the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO, for a sub sample of 199 objects). Our unprecedentedly large sample permits us to assess with high accuracy the statistical significance of the correlation, using a surrogate data method designed to simultaneously account for common-distance bias and the effect of a limited dynamical range in the observed quantities. We find that the statistical significance of a positive correlation between the centimeter radio and the broadband (E > 100 MeV) gamma-ray energy flux is very high for the whole AGN sample, with a probability of < 10(-7) for the correlation appearing by chance. Using the OVRO data, we find that concurrent data improve the significance of the correlation from 1.6 x 10(-6) to 9.0 x 10(-8). Our large sample size allows us to study the dependence of correlation strength and significance on specific source types and gamma-ray energy band. We find that the correlation is very significant (chance probability < 10(-7)) for both flat spectrum radio quasars and BL Lac objects separately; a dependence of the correlation strength on the considered gamma-ray energy band is also present, but additional data will be necessary to constrain its significance.
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| 805. |
- Adler, SS, et al.
(författare)
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Double helicity asymmetry in inclusive midrapidity pi(0) production for polarized p+p collisions at root s=200 GeV
- 2004
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 1079-7114. ; 93:20: 202002
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a measurement of the double longitudinal spin asymmetry in inclusive pi(0) production in polarized proton-proton collisions at roots=200 GeV. The data were taken at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider with average beam polarizations of 0.27. The measurements are the first in a program to study the longitudinal spin structure of the proton, using strongly interacting probes, at collider energies. The asymmetry is presented for transverse momenta 1-5 GeV/c at midrapidity, where next-to-leading-order perturbative quantum chromodynamic (NLO pQCD) calculations well describe the unpolarized cross section. The observed asymmetry is small and is compared to a NLO pQCD calculation with a range of polarized gluon distributions.
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| 806. |
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| 807. |
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| 808. |
- Roth, G. A., et al.
(författare)
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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 70:1, s. 1-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. METHODS CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. RESULTS In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI > 0.75. CONCLUSIONS CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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| 809. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 810. |
- Speliotes, Elizabeth K., et al.
(författare)
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Association analyses of 249,796 individuals reveal 18 new loci associated with body mass index
- 2010
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 42:11, s. 937-948
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and ~2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 × 10−8), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.
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