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Sökning: LAR1:cth > Johnsson Filip 1960

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231.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • Resources and future supply of oil
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 37:2, s. 441-464
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper examines global oil resources and the future global oil supply/demand balance. The paper builds upon several comprehensive databases designed during the work and considerable efforts have been made to review what must be considered the most reliable data. Global oil resources have been investigated on three levels; country, company and field levels.Although no decisive conclusions or quantitative assessments can be made with respect to the global oil resource base, remaining resources appear to be sufficient to meet demand up to 2030 as projected in the 2006 (and 2007) world energy outlook by the IEA. Significant resources have already been discovered beyond proven reserves, many prospective regions remain to be fully explored and there are vast volumes of recoverable unconventional oil. However, it is also concluded that global supply of oil probably will continue to be tight, both in the medium term as well as in the long term mainly as a consequence of above-ground factors such as investment constraints, geopolitical tensions, limited access to reserves and mature super-giant fields. Production of unconventional oil and synthetic fuels is not believed to significantly alter this situation. Although an increasing number of recent reports have indicated an imminent or “soon to come” peak in global oil supply, it has not been found that any of these reports have contributed with any new information on oil resources or oil supply ability. Nevertheless, there is a distinct possibility that global oil production may peak or plateau in a relatively near future, not caused by limited resources but because too many factors over long time constrain investments into exploration and production.The lack of transparency within the oil industry obviously prevents any accurate analysis of future production and supply ability. Moreover, our ability to analyse the sector will become more difficult in the future as oil increasingly will have to be sourced from countries with a poor transparency. The world will become increasingly dependent on a few countries in the Middle East and on Russia not only for the supply of oil but also for the supply of gas which to a large extent will be utilised for power and heat generation. A responsible policy should under these circumstances seek to enhance energy security which should be directed towards promoting energy efficiency measures (reduce demand) in combination with increased utilisation of indigenous fuel resources such as renewables and fossil fuels in combination with CO2 capture and storage. Such a policy would both facilitate the transmission to a more sustainable energy system in the future as well as enhance energy security.
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232.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • Ship transport – a low cost and low risk CO2 transport option in the Nordic countries
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 1750-5836. ; 54, s. 168-184
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper investigates CO2 transport options and associated costs for CO2-sources in the Nordic region. Cost for ship and pipeline transport is calculated both from specific sites and as a function of volume and distance. We also investigate the pipeline volumetric break-even point which yields the CO2 volume required from a specific site for pipeline to become a less costly transport option than ship transport. Finally, we analyze possible effects from injectivity on the choice of reservoir and transport mode. The emission volumes from the Nordic emission sources (mostly industries) are modest, typically between 0.1 to 1.0 Mt per year, while distances to feasible storage sites are relatively long, 300 km or, in many cases, considerably more. Combined, this implies both that build-up of an inland CO2 collection system by pipeline will render high cost and that it is likely to take time to establish transportation volumes large enough to make pipeline transport cost efficient (since this will require multiple sources connected to the same system). At the same time, many of the large emission sources, both fossil based and biogenic, are located along the coast line.It is shown that CO2 transport by ship is the least costly transportation option not only for most of the sources individually but also for most of the potential cluster combinations during ramp-up of the CCS transport and storage infrastructure. It is also shown that cost of ship transport only increases modestly with increasing transport distance. Analyzing the effect of injectivity it was found that poor injectivity in reservoirs in the Baltic Sea may render it less costly to transport the CO2 captured from Finnish and Swedish sources located along the Baltic Sea by ship a further 800-1300 km to the west for storage in better suited aquifers in the Skagerrak region or in the North Sea.
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233.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • Sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region - a regional case study
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: The 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, SDEWES Conference Dubrovnik, Croatia, September 22-27, 2013.
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • This paper reports on a recently initiated interregional project on sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region (KASK) in Norway and Sweden. The work analyses and models large-scale integration of renewable power, the potential of process integration and energy efficiency improvements in key industries in the region and identifies cost efficient solutions for an energy efficient building stock. Energy and emission statistics along with energy and climate plans are used to investigate how well the current “path” with regard to energy use and GHG emissions fits within the corresponding plans for the region. The statistics is also used to define a Reference Energy System (RES) for the region which gives a structured mapping of the energy system of the region, comprising supply, conversion and end-use of the different energy carriers/sources in the region. Based on the analysis the aim of the project is to propose one or more pathways in the short, medium and long term towards a sustainable energy system in the region. The initial work shows that final energy use for parts of the region has actually increased by 25% since 1990 while GHG emissions have declined only marginally, by 3%. Furthermore, although most municipalities in the region have targets or at least visions on significant reductions both with regard to energy use and GHG emissions they lack a clear description (pathway) of how to reach these targets (visions). This clearly indicates that thorough analysis of the energy system in the region could provide valuable insights to decision makers and stakeholders on requirements and challenges for transforming the energy system to reach the visions.
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234.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • The European power plant infrastructure - Presentation of the Chalmers energy infrastructure database with applications
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 35:7, s. 3643-3664
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper presents a newly established database of the European power plant infrastructure (power plants, fuel infrastructure, fuel resources and CO, storage options) for the EU25 member states (MS) and applies the database in a general discussion of the European power plant and natural gas infrastructure as well as in a simple simulation analysis of British and German power generation up to the year 2050 with respect to phase-out of existing generation capacity, fuel mix and fuel dependency. The results are discussed with respect to age structure of the current production plants, CO2 emissions, natural gas dependency and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) under stringent CO2 emission constraints. The analysis of the information from the power plant database, which includes planned projects, shows large variations in power plant infrastructure between the MS and a clear shift to natural gas-fuelled power plants during the last decade. The data indicates that this shift may continue in the short-term up to 2010 since the majority of planned plants are natural gas fired. The gas plants are, however, geographically concentrated to southern and northwest Europe. The data also shows large activities in the upstream gas sector to accommodate the ongoing shift to gas with pipelines, liquefaction plants and regasification terminals being built and gas fields being prepared for production. At the same time, utilities are integrating upwards in the fuel chain in order to secure supply while oil and gas companies are moving downwards the fuel chain to secure access to markets. However, it is not yet possible to state whether the ongoing shift to natural gas will continue in the medium term, i.e. after 2010, since this will depend on a number of factors as specified below. Recently there have also been announcements for construction of a number of new coal plants. The results of the simulations for the German and British power sector show that combination of a relatively low growth rate in power generation, ambitious national plans on renewables together with a strong expansion in the use of natural gas can meet national reduction targets in CO2 emissions. However, for both countries this will result in a strong dependency on natural gas. Successful application Of CO2 capture will reduce this dependency, since this would allow for a significant amount of coal-based generation, which will contribute to security of supply. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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235.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • The role of biomass to replace fossil fuels in a regional energy system - the case of West Sweden
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Thermal Science. - 0354-9836. ; 20:4, s. 1023-1036
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper analyses and discusses the potential role of biomass in the energy supply for two counties in the West of Sweden. More specifically this work analysis the role of biomass for a scenario that meets the CO2 emission reduction targets up to year 2050, i.e. the role of biomass is estimated as part of an overall emission reduction portfolio (other renewables, less energy use in industry and in the building stock, measures in the transportation sector and CCS in the industry). The region follows the Swedish national target for GHG-emissions, namely zero net emissions by 2050 and, thus, this is the main motivation for enhancing the use of renewables including biomass. The region also complies with the national target of a transport sector independent of fossil fuels by 2030.It is concluded that the region could double its production capacity of solid biomass to 2030 – from a current level of 6TWh to 12 TWh. Modelling of the electricity sector in the region indicates that bio-based electricity generation in CHPs could, in a cost-efficient way, be raised from 1.2 TWh in 2012 to between 2.2 and 3.7 TWh in 2050 and that generation of DH in CHPs would increase from around 4 TWh in 2012 (fossil plus bio/waste) to between 4.5 and 7.5 TWh in 2050 (bio/waste only). Assuming a conversion efficiency of 0.35 for bio-based electricity generation imply a biomass consumption in 2050 ranging from 6.3 to 10.6 TWh for the two scenarios investigated. In both cases, this is well below the production potential for biomass within the region. For the transport sector it is shown in order for the region to reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050, that a series of actions will be required to significantly reduce demand in combination with use of electricity and biofuels. It is estimated that the transport sector in the region will consume some 12.8 TWh biomass annually from 2030 onwards. It is also concluded that such a transformation is unlikely to occur only in the West of Sweden but rather it can be expected that such a development in West Sweden will be part of an overall European transformation of the transport sector. It is concluded that total biomass consumption in the region could potentially more than triple from 14 TWh in 2010 to 48 TWh in 2040, considering the electricity and transport sectors and under the assumption that all heat (DH and industrial heat) should be generated by biomass. Yet, assuming that biomass also replace the fossil based raw materials used by the industry in the region this would raise demand to more than 170 TWh from 2040 onwards, which would imply significant logistical challenges and which can be compared with the current 132 TWh total Swedish biomass supply for energy purposes.
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236.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • Transforming the energy system in Västra Götaland and Halland – linking short term actions to long term goals
  • 2015
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • This study analyzes pathways to meet EU, national and regional targets for CO2 emissions, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy in the Swedish part of the Kattegat-Skagerrak region (KASK-SE), i.e. more specifically in the counties of Västra Götaland (VGR) and Halland. Special focus is placed on four areas: The potential for energy savings in the building sector, energy savings and fuel shifting in the energy intensive industry, large-scale deployment of renewables in the electricity generation sector and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the transport sector. The energy savings are through the implementation of different energy efficiency measures.
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237.
  • Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al. (författare)
  • Transport of CO2 in the nordic region
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Energy Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; 63, s. 2683-2690
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • NORDICCS is a virtual CCS networking platform aiming for increased CCS deployment in the five Nordic countries. This paper reports from work investigating options for CO2 transport infrastructure in the Nordic region. Five specific CCS cases have been selected from which capture is analyzed in detail and from which CO2 transport cost has been calculated assuming CO2 being captured only at the site itself or, assuming the selected capture site develops into a CO2-hub with CO2 from several adjacent sources. In the latter case cost has been calculated defining for what volumes pipeline transport becomes less costly than corresponding ship transport. Additionally, cost for both pipeline and ship transport has been calculated as a function of distance and volume in order to apply these calculations to derive the least costly transport mode for the fifty-five largest sources in the region with a coastal location. Also, the effect on cost for systems that will require ramp-up (i.e. transported volumes increase over time) has been calculated. Finally, an analysis of the potential for build-up of clusters in the region was performed. The work clearly shows that ship transport is the least costly transport option, not only for the five selected cases individually but also for most of the emission sources located along the coastline. The work also shows that ship transport is the least costly transport option for most of the potential clusters in the region during the ramp-up phase. An obvious but still important conclusion is that constrained storage capability and injectivity may have a profound impact on design and cost of a CO2 transport system.
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238.
  • Klement, Jonathan, 1994, et al. (författare)
  • Supply Chain Driven Commercialisation of Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Pulp mills, as large biogenic CO2 point sources, could adopt Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) through retrofitting carbon capture. These existing carbon sources constitute a great potential to roll out BECCS on commercial scale. Yet, despite political targets for negative emission production in Sweden, no incentive schemes were thus far enacted. While previous proposals focus on governmental compensation, the aim of this work is to set BECCS into the supply chain of a wide array of consumer products and thereby find alternative or complementary, business-driven, ways to incentivise BECCS when applied to the pulp and paper industry. In this work, we assess a “value proposition” for low-carbon products in supply chains linked to the pulp and paper industry. By projecting the costs and negative emissions related to BECCS from the pulp mill to typical consumer products, as exemplified by three case study products, we show how BECCS can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of the consumer products, while only marginally increasing their cost. Additional price premiums could shorten the payback period of the initial investment in BECCS. The developed business case presents how actors along the supply chain for pulp and paper products can collectively contribute to securing financing and to mitigating investment risks. The results challenge the private sector, i.e., the companies along the pulp-and-paper supply chain to commit considerable investments also in the case without or with too weak direct political incentives. We conclude by discussing the governance implications on corporate and public level to enable the collaborative “bottom-up” adoption of BECCS.
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239.
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240.
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