| 21. |
- Naghavi, M., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 22. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 23. |
- Bergman, Lina, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Study for Improving Maternal Pregnancy And Child ouTcomes (IMPACT): a study protocol for a Swedish prospective multicentre cohort study
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055 .- 2044-6055. ; 10:9, s. e033851-e033851
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction First-trimester pregnancy risk evaluation facilitates individualised antenatal care, as well as application of preventive strategies for pre-eclampsia or birth of a small for gestational age infant. A range of early intervention strategies in pregnancies identified as high risk at the end of the first trimester has been shown to decrease the risk of preterm pre-eclampsia (<37 gestational weeks). The aim of this project is to create the Improving Maternal Pregnancy And Child ouTcomes (IMPACT) database; a nationwide database with individual patient data, including predictors recorded at the end of the first trimester and later pregnancy outcomes, to identify women at high risk of pre-eclampsia. A second aim is to link the IMPACT database to a biobank with first-trimester blood samples. Methods and analysis This is a Swedish prospective multicentre cohort study. Women are included between the 11th and 14th weeks of pregnancy. At inclusion, pre-identified predictors are retrieved by interviews and medical examinations. Blood samples are collected and stored in a biobank. Additional predictors and pregnancy outcomes are retrieved from the Swedish Pregnancy Register. Inclusion in the study began in November 2018 with a targeted sample size of 45 000 pregnancies by end of 2021. Creation of a new risk prediction model will then be developed, validated and implemented. The database and biobank will enable future research on prediction of various pregnancy-related complications. Ethics and dissemination Confidentiality aspects such as data encryption and storage comply with the General Data Protection Regulation and with ethical committee requirements. This study has been granted national ethical approval by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Uppsala 2018-231) and national biobank approval at Uppsala Biobank (18237 2 2018 231). Results from the current as well as future studies using information from the IMPACT database will be published in peer-reviewed journals.
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| 24. |
- Carlsson, Axel C, et al.
(författare)
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Endostatin predicts mortality in patients with acute dyspnea - a cohort study of patients seeking care in emergency departments.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Clinical Biochemistry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0009-9120 .- 1873-2933. ; 75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Increased levels of circulating endostatin predicts cardiovascular morbidity and impaired kidney function in the general population. The utility of endostatin as a risk marker for mortality in the emergency department (ED) has not been reported.AIM: Our main aim was to study the association between plasma endostatin and 90-day mortality in an unselected cohort of patients admitted to the ED for acute dyspnea. Design Circulating endostatin was analyzed in plasma from 1710 adults and related to 90-day mortality in Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, body temperature, C-reactive protein, lactate, creatinine and medical priority according to the Medical Emergency Triage and Treatment System-Adult score (METTS-A). The predictive value of endostatin for mortality was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and compared with the clinical triage scoring system and age.RESULTS: Each one standard deviation increment of endostatin was associated with a HR of 2.12 (95 % CI 1.31-3.44 p< 0.01) for 90-day mortality after full adjustment. Levels of endostatin were significantly increased in the group of patients with highest METTS-A (p<0.001). When tested for the outcome 90-day mortality, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.616 for METTS-A, 0.701 for endostatin, 0.708 for METTS -A and age and 0.738 for METTS-A, age and levels of endostatin.CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected cohort of patients admitted to the ED with acute dyspnea, endostatin had a string association to 90-day mortality and improved prediction of 90-day mortality in the ED beyond the clinical triage scoring system and age with 3 %.
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| 25. |
- Delanaye, Pierre, et al.
(författare)
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Performance of creatinine-based equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate in White and Black populations in Europe, Brazil, and Africa
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation. - : Oxford University Press. - 0931-0509 .- 1460-2385. ; 38:1, s. 106-118
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: A new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology equation without race variable has been recently proposed (CKD-EPIAS). This equation has neither been validated outside USA nor compared to the new European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC) and Lund-Malmö Revised (LMREV) equations, developed in European cohorts.METHODS: Standardized creatinine and measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR) from the European EKFC cohorts (n = 13 856 including 6031 individuals in the external validation cohort), from France, (n = 4429, including 964 Black Europeans), from Brazil (n = 100), and from Africa (n = 508) were used to test the performances of the equations. A matched analysis between White Europeans and Black Africans or Black Europeans was performed.RESULTS: In White Europeans (n = 9496), both the EKFC and LMREV equations outperformed CKD-EPIAS (bias of -0.6 and -3.2, respectively versus 5.0 mL/min/1.73m², and accuracy within 30% of 86.9 and 87.4, respectively versus 80.9%). In Black Europeans and Black Africans, the best performance was observed with the EKFC equation using a specific Q-value ( = concentration of serum creatinine in healthy males and females). These results were confirmed in matched analyses, which showed that serum creatinine concentrations were different in White Europeans, Black Europeans, and Black Africans for the same measured GFR, age, sex and body mass index. Creatinine differences were more relevant in males.CONCLUSION: In a European and African cohort, the performances of CKD-EPIAS remain suboptimal. The EKFC equation, using usual or dedicated, population-specific Q-values presents the best performance in the whole age range in the European and African populations included in this study.
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| 26. |
- Delanaye, Pierre, et al.
(författare)
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Performance of creatinine-based equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate with a methodology adapted to the context of drug dosage adjustment
- 2022
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Ingår i: British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology. - : Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 0306-5251 .- 1365-2125. ; 88:5, s. 2118-2127
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIM: The Cockcroft-Gault (CG) creatinine-based equation is still used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for drug dosage adjustment. Incorrect eGFR may lead to hazardous over- or underdosing METHODS: In a cross-sectional analysis, CG was validated against measured GFR (mGFR) in 14,804 participants and compared with the Modification-of-Diet-in-Renal-Diseases (MDRD), Chronic-Kidney-Disease-Epidemiology (CKD-EPI), Lund-Malmö-Revised (LMR), and European-Kidney-Function-Consortium (EKFC) equations. Validation focused on bias, imprecision, and accuracy (percentage of estimates within ±30% of mGFR, P30), overall and stratified for mGFR, age, and body mass index at mGFR <60 mL/min, as well as classification in mGFR stages.RESULTS: The CG equation performed worse than the other equations, overall and in mGFR, age and BMI subgroups in terms of bias (systematic overestimation), imprecision and accuracy except for patients ≥65 years where bias and P30 were similar to MDRD and CKD-EPI, but worse than LMR and EKFC. In subjects with mGFR<60 mL/min and at BMI [18.5-25[kg/m2 , all equations performed similarly and for BMI<18.5kg/m2 CG and LMR had the best results though all equations had poor P30-accuracy. At BMI≥25kg/m2 the bias of the CG increased with increasing BMI (+17.2mL/min at BMI≥40kg/m2 ). The four more recent equations also classified mGFR stages better than CG.CONCLUSIONS: The CG equation showed poor ability to estimate GFR overall and in analyses stratified for GFR, age, and BMI. CG was inferior to correctly classify the patients in the mGFR staging compared to more recent creatinine-based equations.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Malmgren, Linnea, et al.
(författare)
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The complexity of kidney disease and diagnosing it - Cystatin C, selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes and proteome regulation.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 293:3, s. 293-308
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estimation of kidney function is often part of daily clinical practice, mostly done by using the endogenous GFR-markers creatinine or cystatin C. A recommendation to use both markers in parallel in 2010 has resulted in new knowledge concerning the pathophysiology of kidney disorders by identification of a new set of kidney disorders, selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes. These syndromes, connected to strong increases in mortality and morbidity, are characterised by a selective reduction in the glomerular filtration of 5-30 kDa molecules, such as cystatin C, compared to the filtration of small molecules < 1kDa dominating the glomerular filtrate e.g., water, urea, creatinine. At least two types of such disorders, shrunken or elongated pore syndrome, are possible according to the pore model for glomerular filtration. Selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes are prevalent in investigated populations, and patients with these syndromes often display normal measured GFR or creatinine-based GFR-estimates. The syndromes are characterised by proteomic changes promoting the development of atherosclerosis, indicating antibodies and specific receptor-blocking substances as possible new treatment modalities. Presently, the KDIGO guidelines for diagnosing kidney disorders do not recommend cystatin C as a general marker of kidney function and will therefore not allow the identification of a considerable number of patients with selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes. Furthermore, as cystatin C is uninfluenced by muscle mass, diet or variations in tubular secretion and cystatin C-based GFR-estimation equations do not require controversial race or sex terms, it is obvious that cystatin C should be a part of future KDIGO guidelines.
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| 29. |
- Mokdad, Ali H., et al.
(författare)
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Adolescent health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 79-96
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 22 countries of the East Mediterranean Region (EMR) have large populations of adolescents aged 10-24 years. These adolescents are central to assuring the health, development, and peace of this region. We described their health needs. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we report the leading causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents in the EMR from 1990 to 2015. We also report the prevalence of key health risk behaviors and determinants. Communicable diseases and the health consequences of natural disasters reduced substantially between 1990 and 2015. However, these gains have largely been offset by the health impacts of war and the emergence of non-communicable diseases (including mental health disorders), unintentional injury, and self-harm. Tobacco smoking and high body mass were common health risks amongst adolescents. Additionally, many EMR countries had high rates of adolescent pregnancy and unmet need for contraception. Even with the return of peace and security, adolescents will have a persisting poor health profile that will pose a barrier to socioeconomic growth and development of the EMR.
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| 30. |
- Pottel, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Development and Validation of a Modified Full Age Spectrum Creatinine-Based Equation to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate : A Cross-sectional Analysis of Pooled Data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of Internal Medicine. - : American College of Physicians. - 0003-4819 .- 1539-3704. ; 174:2, s. 183-191
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Study (CKiD) equation for children and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation for adults are recommended serum creatinine (SCr)-based calculations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, these equations, as well as their combination, have limitations, notably the problem of implausible changes in GFR during the transition from adolescence to adulthood and overestimation of GFR in young adults. The full age spectrum (FAS) equation addresses these issues but overestimates GFR when SCr levels are low.OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a modified FAS SCr-based equation combining design features of the FAS and CKD-EPI equations.DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis with separate pooled data sets for development and validation.SETTING: = 13) with measured GFR available.PATIENTS: 11 251 participants in 7 studies (development and internal validation data sets) and 8378 participants in 6 studies (external validation data set).MEASUREMENTS: Clearance of an exogenous marker (reference method), SCr level, age, sex, and height were used to develop a new equation to estimate GFR.RESULTS: ] in adults) across the FAS (2 to 90 years) and SCr range (40 to 490 µmol/L [0.45 to 5.54 mg/dL]) and with fewer estimation errors exceeding 30% (6.5% [CI, 3.8% to 9.1%] in children and 3.1% [CI, 2.5% to 3.6%] in adults) compared with the CKiD and CKD-EPI equations.LIMITATION: No Black patients were included.CONCLUSION: The new EKFC equation shows improved accuracy and precision compared with commonly used equations for estimating GFR from SCr levels.PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet).
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