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21.
  • Kassebaum, N., et al. (författare)
  • Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015 Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Jama Pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 171:6, s. 573-592
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
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22.
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23.
  • Naghavi, M., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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24.
  • Wang, H. D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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25.
  • Zamaratskaia, Galia, et al. (författare)
  • Consumption of whole grain/bran rye instead of refined wheat decrease concentrations of TNF-R2, e-selectin, and endostatin in an exploratory study in men with prostate cancer
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-1983 .- 0261-5614. ; 39:1, s. 159-165
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background & aims: Rye consumption has shown beneficial effects on prostate cancer tumors, as indicated by slower initial tumor growth in animal models and lowering of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in humans. This study evaluated the effects of whole grain/bran rye consumption on low-grade inflammation and endothelial function biomarkers in men with prostate cancer. Methods: Seventeen men with untreated, low-grade prostate cancer consumed 485 g rye whole grain and bran products (RP) per day or refined wheat products with added cellulose (WP) in a randomized crossover design. Fasting blood samples were taken before and after 2, 4, and 6 weeks of treatment. Results: Concentrations of tumor nuclear factor-receptor 2 (TNF-R2), e-selectin, and endostatin were significantly lower after consumption of the RP diet compared with WP (p < 0.05). Cathepsin S concentration was positively correlated to TNF-R2 and endostatin concentrations across all occasions. Strong correlations were consistently found between intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) and between interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA). No effect of intervention was found in 92 inflammation-related protein biomarkers measured in a proximity extension assay. Conclusions: RP diet lowered TNF-R2, e-selectin, and endostatin, compared with WP in men with prostate cancer. These effects were accompanied by a reduction in PSA.
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26.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Association Between Circulating Endostatin, Hypertension Duration, and Hypertensive Target-Organ Damage
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Hypertension. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0194-911X .- 1524-4563. ; 62:6, s. 1146-1151
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Our aim is to study associations between circulating endostatin, hypertension duration, and hypertensive target-organ damage. Long-term hypertension induces cardiovascular and renal remodeling. Circulating endostatin, a biologically active derivate of collagen XVIII, has been suggested to be a relevant marker for extracellular matrix turnover and remodeling in various diseases. However, the role of endostatin in hypertension and hypertensive target-organ damage is unclear. Serum endostatin was measured in 2 independent community-based cohorts: the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; women 51%; n=812; mean age, 75 years) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n=785; mean age, 77.6 years). Retrospective data on blood pressure measurements and antihypertensive medication (PIVUS >5 years, ULSAM >27 years), and cross-sectional data on echocardiographic left ventricular mass, endothelial function (endothelium-dependent vasodilation assessed by the invasive forearm model), and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio were available. In PIVUS, participants with 5 years of history of hypertension portrayed 0.42 SD (95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.61; P<0.001) higher serum endostatin, compared with that of normotensives. This association was replicated in ULSAM, in which participants with 27 years hypertension duration had the highest endostatin (0.57 SD higher; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.80; P<0.001). In addition, higher endostatin was associated with higher left ventricular mass, worsened endothelial function, and higher urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (P<0.03 for all) in participants with prevalent hypertension. Circulating endostatin is associated with the duration of hypertension, and vascular, myocardial, and renal indices of hypertensive target-organ damage. Further studies are warranted to assess the prognostic role of endostatin in individuals with hypertension.
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27.
  • Carlsson, Axel C., et al. (författare)
  • Association of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 with nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and total mortality in type 2 diabetes
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Cardiovascular Diabetology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-2840 .- 1475-2840. ; 15
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease.METHODS: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used.RESULTS: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality.CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes.
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28.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 and 2, gender, and risk of myocardial infarction in Northern Sweden
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier BV. - 0021-9150 .- 1879-1484. ; 272, s. 41-46
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Soluble receptors for tumor necrosis factor alpha (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) have been associated with cardiovascular diseases, and some evidence points towards a difference in associated risk between men and women. We aimed to study the association between sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 and incident myocardial infarctions (MI) and to explore the influence of established cardiovascular risk factors in men and women.METHODS: We conducted a nested case control study in three large Swedish cohorts, including 533 myocardial infarction cases, and 1003 age-, sex- and cohort-matched controls. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.RESULTS: An association between circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 and an increased risk for MI was found when comparing cases and controls. The odds ratios were significant after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors and C-reactive protein in women (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.08-1.93 for TNFR1, and 1.61, 95% CI 1.11-2.34 for TNFR2), but was abolished in men. Women with a combination of elevated CRP and values in the upper quartile of TNFR1 or TNFR2 had a 5-fold higher risk of myocardial infarction versus those with normal CRP and values in the lower three quartiles of TNFR1 or TNFR2.CONCLUSIONS: As the risk estimates for TNFR1 and TNFR2 were higher and remained significant after adjustments for established cardiovascular risk factors in women but not in men, a potential role for TNFR1 and TNFR2 in identifying women with a higher MI risk is possible. The future clinical role of TNFR1 and TNFR2 in combination with CRP to identify high risk patients for coronary heart disease has yet to be determined.
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29.
  • Carlsson, Axel C., et al. (författare)
  • The association between endostatin and kidney disease and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Diabetes & Metabolism. - : Elsevier BV. - 1262-3636 .- 1878-1780. ; 42:5, s. 351-357
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aim. - Circulating endostatin, a biologically active derivate of collagen XVIII, is considered to be a marker of kidney disease and a risk factor for its related mortality. However, less is known of the role of endostatin in diabetes and the development of diabetic nephropathy. For this reason, our study investigated the associations between circulating endostatin and the prevalence and progression of kidney disease, and its mortality risk in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods. - This was a cohort study of 607 patients with T2D (mean age: 61 years, 44% women). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) creatinine equation, was used to assess the patients' kidney function decline and mortality. Results. - Of the total study cohort, 20 patients declined by >= 20% in eGFR over 4 years, and 44 died during the follow-up (mean duration: 6.7 years). At baseline, participants with diabetic nephropathy (defined as eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) and/or microalbuminuria [defined as a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) > 3 g/mol] had higher median levels of endostatin than those without nephropathy (62.7 mu g/L vs 57.4 mu g/L, respectively; P = 0.031). In longitudinal analyses adjusted for age, gender, baseline eGFR and ACR, higher endostatin levels were associated with a higher risk of decline (>= 20% in eGFR, OR per 1 SD increase: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.13-2.65) and a higher risk of mortality (HR per 1 SD increase: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.19-2.07). Conclusion. - In patients with T2D, circulating endostatin levels can predict the progression of kidney disease and mortality independently of established kidney disease markers. The clinical usefulness of endostatin as a risk marker in such patients merits further studies.
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30.
  • Nilsson, Erik, 1975-, et al. (författare)
  • Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A as a Cardiovascular Risk Marker in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease During 10 Years Follow-Up-A CLARICOR Trial Sub-Study
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Medicine. - : MDPI. - 2077-0383. ; 9:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Elevated pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) is associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes. Few studies have assessed PAPP-A in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and results are conflicting. We assessed the 10-year prognostic relevance of PAPP-A levels in stable CAD. The CLARICOR trial was a randomized controlled clinical trial including outpatients with stable CAD, randomized to clarithromycin versus placebo. The placebo group constituted our discovery cohort (n = 1.996) and the clarithromycin group the replication cohort (n = 1.975). The composite primary outcome was first occurrence of cardiovascular event or death. In the discovery cohort, incidence rates (IR) for the composite outcome were higher in those with elevated PAPP-A (IR 12.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 11.0-14.7 events/100 years) compared to lower PAPP-A (IR 8.78, 8.25-9.34), with comparable results in the replication cohort. Elevated PAPP-A was associated with increased risk of the composite outcome in both cohorts (discovery Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.45, 95% CI 1.24-1.70; replication HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.10-1.52). In models adjusted for established risk factors, these trends were attenuated. Elevated PAPP-A was associated with higher all-cause mortality in both cohorts. We conclude that elevated PAPP-A levels are associated with increased long-term mortality in stable CAD, but do not improve long-term prediction of death or cardiovascular events when added to established predictors.
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