| 231. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Fossil Fuels: Climate Change and Security of Supply
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Sustainable Water and Environmental Systems. - 1923-7545. ; 4:1, s. 79-87
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is based on an extensive assessment of the global fossil fuel markets, i.e. of the coal, gas and oil markets. The main conclusions from the work presented in this paper are that from a climate change perspective there is an abundance of fossil fuels, coal in particular. The CO2-emission potential of proven reserves of fossil fuels are up to twice as high as the global carbon budget in the 21st century required to limit the temperature increase to 2.9°C (mean estimate). Yet, apart from possibly natural gas and in spite of a large resource base, it will be increasingly difficult to meet baseline demand projections particularly for oil and cost of producing fossil fuels are likely to rise. As a consequence, in most regions there is an increasing focus on security of supply rather than on phasing out fossil fuels. Globally, there are few concrete signs that we are actually moving away from a dependency on fossil fuels and it appears extremely challenging to meet climate change targets limiting the global temperature increase to 2°C. This is partly due to the unwillingness of the developed world to agree on a strong enough political framework controlling emission reductions and partly due to low per capita demand in expanding undeveloped countries coupled with large populations and large domestic coal resources.
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| 232. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling large-scale CCS development in Europe linking technoeconomic modelling to transport infrastructure
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; 37, s. 2941-2948
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper a studies the potential lay-out of CCS infrastructure in Europe, by combining techno-economic modelling of Europs's electricity sector with a detailed modelling and analysis of a CO2 transport infrastructure. First, the electricity sector is described using the Chalmers Electricity Investment Model, which, for each EU member state, yields the technology mix including CCS - until the year 2050. The model gives the lowest system cost under a given CO2 emission reduction target. Thus, the model gives the annual flows of CO2 being captured by country and fuel. Secondly, these flows are used as input to InfraCCS, a cost optimization tool for bulk CO2 pipelines. Finally, the results from InfraCCS are applied along with Chalmers databases on power plants and CO2 storage sites to design the development over time of a detailed CO2 transport network across Europe considering the spatial distribution of power plants and storage locations. Two scenarios are studied: with and without onshore aquifer storage. The work shows that the spatial distribution of capture plants over time along with individual reservoir storage capacity and injectivity are key factors determining routing and timing of the pipeline network. The results of this work imply that uncertainties in timing for installation of capture equipment in combination with uncertainties related to accurate data on storage capacity and injectivity on reservoir level risk to seriously limit the build-up of large-scale pan-European CO2 transportation networks. The study gives that transport cost will more than double if aquifer storage is restricted to offshore reservoirs. Thus, it is found that the total investments for the pan-European pipeline system is € 31 billion.when storage in onshore aquifers is allowed and € 72 billion. if aquifer storage is restricted to offshore reservoirs with corresponding specific cost of € 5.1 to € 12.2 CO2 transported.
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| 233. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Prospects of the European Gas Market
- 2007
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 35:2, s. 869-888
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AbstractThis paper discusses prospects for increased consumption of natural gas within the European Union (EU) up to 2030. Particular emphasis is on the power generation sector, where the main growth in demand is expected to occur, on supply and infrastructural constraints and on future price of natural gas.It can be concluded that EU gas-import needs will increase substantially up to 2010, driven by a combination of rapid increase in demand in southern Europe and declining production in northern Europe. As a result there will be an increased import dependency which will affect security of supply, not only in the gas sector but also in the electricity sector. Gas demand after 2010 will partially depend on the level of continued CO2 emission restrictions, a possible nuclear phase-out in the UK, Germany and Belgium and to what extent the option to store CO2 in subsurface reservoirs will be applied. However, supplies of gas are plentiful, at least in the medium-term up to 2010/2015, and a number of new countries will emerge as substantial suppliers to the European gas market, increasing competition and possibly leading to a situation of oversupply between 2008 and 2012 which in turn may create a downward pressure on gas prices. In addition, the US market may, pending on demand and indigenous production, experience considerable oversupply between around 2008 and 2015, reducing the possibilities of conducting arbitrage between the two main markets in the Atlantic basin and further contributing to a downward pressure on the gas price. On the other hand, the oil price will continue to be a major determinant of the gas price and a tight oil supply/demand balance will create an upward pressure on the gas price. Global liquefaction and regasification capacity is expected to more than double between now and 2010 leading to a more flexible and global gas trading and increasing spot sales and although the cost of LNG has decreased substantially over the past three decades it is still more costly than piped gas at distances up to 3000—4000 km within comparable regions. Thus, an increased use of LNG will contribute to an increase in average gas prices locally. Problems related to gas production capacity together with abundant supply to the EU markets and increased competition points to that Russia will loose market share in the short run, in particular as piped Russian gas is not competitive on the main growth markets, i.e. UK, and Italy/Spain. Nevertheless, in the long run, it can be expected that the EU dependency on gas from Russia as well as on the Middle East will increase. The vulnerability in supply security and the high dependency on Russian gas has been highlighted by the latest events (January 2006) with Russia cutting supplies to Ukraine.A critical factor is the large and timely investments required along the entire fuel chain in order to meet rapidly increasing demand, often in regions with uncertain investment conditions. Also, the producing countries are likely to invest according to national interest rather than to supply an increasing global demand.Keywords: Natural gas; Power generation; Europe; Security of supply
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| 234. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Ramp-up of large-scale CCS infrastructure in Europe
- 2009
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Ingår i: GREENHOUSE GAS CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES 9. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; 1:1, s. 4201-4208
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates conditions for a rapid ramp-up of a large-scale CO2 transport and storage infrastructure within the power and heat sector in EU's Member States (MS). First, each MS is investigated individually with respect to the relevance of CCS in the power and heat sector. Second, the potential cost of CO2 transport and storage is evaluated and categorised into three levels for each MS with particular emphasis being put on power plant clusters, ownership concentration, source-sink distance and onshore storage potential. The chosen cost category for each member state is then used as input in a techno-economic modelling to evaluate the future electricity supply system in Europe as described elsewhere (Odenberger et al., 2008a). Finally, based on the modelling results, the study develops a detailed CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure for Germany and UK and discusses issues related to the ramp-up of such infrastructure. The analysis shows that most MS have identified structures that may be suitable for subsurface storage of CO2. Fourteen MS have so far identified onshore reservoirs only. Several MS have clusters of large power plants along with considerable national or regional concentration of plant ownership, factors that may both facilitate the ramp-up of a bulk CCS infrastructure. Phasing in of CCS plants over time will obviously play a key role in building up large-scale transport infrastructure. CCS plants are likely to be located on existing sites and coal plants currently under construction may choose to retrofit the plant for CCS instead of building new plants. CO2 pipeline trajectories are likely to follow existing trajectories for natural gas pipelines, minimising interference with the surroundings and facilitate and speed up permitting processes. Timing, conflicts of interest and public acceptance, especially onshore, are other factors that may become an issue with regard to transport and storage of CO2. According to model results, some 5.2 Gt CO2 is transported and stored in Germany between 2020 and 2050 while the corresponding figure in the UK is 3.7 Gt. Based on assumed injectivity, total system costs up to 2050 range between (sic) 18 and (sic) 23 billion in Germany and between (sic) 20 and (sic) 30 billion in the UK while specific costs range between (sic) 3.4 and (sic) 4.4 per ton of CO2 in Germany and between (sic) 5.4 and (sic) 8.1 in the UK. Finally, the modelling results indicate a rapid switch from gas based to coal based power generation with CCS. It is, however, likely that the large fuel switch from gas to coal will be moderated considerably by market dynamics and issues related to the fuel supply chain. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 235. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Recommendations on CO2 transport solutions
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of this report is 1) to recommend transport solutions for CO2 sources in the Nordic region, here defined as the least costly transport mode for the selected CCS cases in NORDICCS and 2) to analyze the potential for establishment of CO2 clusters by means of a transportation network around the selected CCS cases in order to reduce the transportation cost. Comparing cost for pipeline transport with cost for ship transport, it is concluded that both for the majority of the selected cases as well as for most of the emission sources in the region, ship transport will be the least costly transport mode for each source individually. It is also concluded that ship transport is the most appropriate transport mode for most of the potential clusters in the region during a ramp-up phase. This is closely related to underutilization of pipelines and risk taking in connection with underutilized pipelines. For distances shorter than 100 km and volumes smaller than 1 Mtpa, e.g. corresponding to a typical collection system containing multiple coastal sources, it has been calculated that onshore pipeline in most cases will be the least costly transport solution. More generally, it can be stated that the break-even distance where ship transport becomes least costly than pipeline transport increases as the volume increases. Yet, it should be emphasized that discharge from a ship offshore and positioning of smaller ships during injection will need to be demonstrated. An obvious but still important conclusion is that constrained storage capability may have a profound impact on design and cost of a CO2 transport system. In fact, a poor storage capability in the reservoirs in the Baltic Sea may render ship transport to Gassum and Utsira a less costly transport and storage option than the reservoirs in the Baltic Sea. Finally, it is concluded that in the Nordic region, the Kattegat-Skagerrak area probably offers the best opportunities for a Nordic CCS system, possibly driven initially by CO2 EOR which potentially may require a start-up already in 2020.
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| 236. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
-
Resources and future supply of oil
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 37:2, s. 441-464
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper examines global oil resources and the future global oil supply/demand balance. The paper builds upon several comprehensive databases designed during the work and considerable efforts have been made to review what must be considered the most reliable data. Global oil resources have been investigated on three levels; country, company and field levels.Although no decisive conclusions or quantitative assessments can be made with respect to the global oil resource base, remaining resources appear to be sufficient to meet demand up to 2030 as projected in the 2006 (and 2007) world energy outlook by the IEA. Significant resources have already been discovered beyond proven reserves, many prospective regions remain to be fully explored and there are vast volumes of recoverable unconventional oil. However, it is also concluded that global supply of oil probably will continue to be tight, both in the medium term as well as in the long term mainly as a consequence of above-ground factors such as investment constraints, geopolitical tensions, limited access to reserves and mature super-giant fields. Production of unconventional oil and synthetic fuels is not believed to significantly alter this situation. Although an increasing number of recent reports have indicated an imminent or “soon to come” peak in global oil supply, it has not been found that any of these reports have contributed with any new information on oil resources or oil supply ability. Nevertheless, there is a distinct possibility that global oil production may peak or plateau in a relatively near future, not caused by limited resources but because too many factors over long time constrain investments into exploration and production.The lack of transparency within the oil industry obviously prevents any accurate analysis of future production and supply ability. Moreover, our ability to analyse the sector will become more difficult in the future as oil increasingly will have to be sourced from countries with a poor transparency. The world will become increasingly dependent on a few countries in the Middle East and on Russia not only for the supply of oil but also for the supply of gas which to a large extent will be utilised for power and heat generation. A responsible policy should under these circumstances seek to enhance energy security which should be directed towards promoting energy efficiency measures (reduce demand) in combination with increased utilisation of indigenous fuel resources such as renewables and fossil fuels in combination with CO2 capture and storage. Such a policy would both facilitate the transmission to a more sustainable energy system in the future as well as enhance energy security.
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| 237. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Ship transport – a low cost and low risk CO2 transport option in the Nordic countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 1750-5836. ; 54, s. 168-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates CO2 transport options and associated costs for CO2-sources in the Nordic region. Cost for ship and pipeline transport is calculated both from specific sites and as a function of volume and distance. We also investigate the pipeline volumetric break-even point which yields the CO2 volume required from a specific site for pipeline to become a less costly transport option than ship transport. Finally, we analyze possible effects from injectivity on the choice of reservoir and transport mode. The emission volumes from the Nordic emission sources (mostly industries) are modest, typically between 0.1 to 1.0 Mt per year, while distances to feasible storage sites are relatively long, 300 km or, in many cases, considerably more. Combined, this implies both that build-up of an inland CO2 collection system by pipeline will render high cost and that it is likely to take time to establish transportation volumes large enough to make pipeline transport cost efficient (since this will require multiple sources connected to the same system). At the same time, many of the large emission sources, both fossil based and biogenic, are located along the coast line.It is shown that CO2 transport by ship is the least costly transportation option not only for most of the sources individually but also for most of the potential cluster combinations during ramp-up of the CCS transport and storage infrastructure. It is also shown that cost of ship transport only increases modestly with increasing transport distance. Analyzing the effect of injectivity it was found that poor injectivity in reservoirs in the Baltic Sea may render it less costly to transport the CO2 captured from Finnish and Swedish sources located along the Baltic Sea by ship a further 800-1300 km to the west for storage in better suited aquifers in the Skagerrak region or in the North Sea.
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| 238. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region - a regional case study
- 2013
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Ingår i: The 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, SDEWES Conference Dubrovnik, Croatia, September 22-27, 2013.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper reports on a recently initiated interregional project on sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region (KASK) in Norway and Sweden. The work analyses and models large-scale integration of renewable power, the potential of process integration and energy efficiency improvements in key industries in the region and identifies cost efficient solutions for an energy efficient building stock. Energy and emission statistics along with energy and climate plans are used to investigate how well the current “path” with regard to energy use and GHG emissions fits within the corresponding plans for the region. The statistics is also used to define a Reference Energy System (RES) for the region which gives a structured mapping of the energy system of the region, comprising supply, conversion and end-use of the different energy carriers/sources in the region. Based on the analysis the aim of the project is to propose one or more pathways in the short, medium and long term towards a sustainable energy system in the region. The initial work shows that final energy use for parts of the region has actually increased by 25% since 1990 while GHG emissions have declined only marginally, by 3%. Furthermore, although most municipalities in the region have targets or at least visions on significant reductions both with regard to energy use and GHG emissions they lack a clear description (pathway) of how to reach these targets (visions). This clearly indicates that thorough analysis of the energy system in the region could provide valuable insights to decision makers and stakeholders on requirements and challenges for transforming the energy system to reach the visions.
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| 239. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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The European power plant infrastructure - Presentation of the Chalmers energy infrastructure database with applications
- 2007
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 35:7, s. 3643-3664
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a newly established database of the European power plant infrastructure (power plants, fuel infrastructure, fuel resources and CO, storage options) for the EU25 member states (MS) and applies the database in a general discussion of the European power plant and natural gas infrastructure as well as in a simple simulation analysis of British and German power generation up to the year 2050 with respect to phase-out of existing generation capacity, fuel mix and fuel dependency. The results are discussed with respect to age structure of the current production plants, CO2 emissions, natural gas dependency and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) under stringent CO2 emission constraints. The analysis of the information from the power plant database, which includes planned projects, shows large variations in power plant infrastructure between the MS and a clear shift to natural gas-fuelled power plants during the last decade. The data indicates that this shift may continue in the short-term up to 2010 since the majority of planned plants are natural gas fired. The gas plants are, however, geographically concentrated to southern and northwest Europe. The data also shows large activities in the upstream gas sector to accommodate the ongoing shift to gas with pipelines, liquefaction plants and regasification terminals being built and gas fields being prepared for production. At the same time, utilities are integrating upwards in the fuel chain in order to secure supply while oil and gas companies are moving downwards the fuel chain to secure access to markets. However, it is not yet possible to state whether the ongoing shift to natural gas will continue in the medium term, i.e. after 2010, since this will depend on a number of factors as specified below. Recently there have also been announcements for construction of a number of new coal plants. The results of the simulations for the German and British power sector show that combination of a relatively low growth rate in power generation, ambitious national plans on renewables together with a strong expansion in the use of natural gas can meet national reduction targets in CO2 emissions. However, for both countries this will result in a strong dependency on natural gas. Successful application Of CO2 capture will reduce this dependency, since this would allow for a significant amount of coal-based generation, which will contribute to security of supply. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 240. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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The role of biomass to replace fossil fuels in a regional energy system - the case of West Sweden
- 2016
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Ingår i: Thermal Science. - 0354-9836. ; 20:4, s. 1023-1036
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyses and discusses the potential role of biomass in the energy supply for two counties in the West of Sweden. More specifically this work analysis the role of biomass for a scenario that meets the CO2 emission reduction targets up to year 2050, i.e. the role of biomass is estimated as part of an overall emission reduction portfolio (other renewables, less energy use in industry and in the building stock, measures in the transportation sector and CCS in the industry). The region follows the Swedish national target for GHG-emissions, namely zero net emissions by 2050 and, thus, this is the main motivation for enhancing the use of renewables including biomass. The region also complies with the national target of a transport sector independent of fossil fuels by 2030.It is concluded that the region could double its production capacity of solid biomass to 2030 – from a current level of 6TWh to 12 TWh. Modelling of the electricity sector in the region indicates that bio-based electricity generation in CHPs could, in a cost-efficient way, be raised from 1.2 TWh in 2012 to between 2.2 and 3.7 TWh in 2050 and that generation of DH in CHPs would increase from around 4 TWh in 2012 (fossil plus bio/waste) to between 4.5 and 7.5 TWh in 2050 (bio/waste only). Assuming a conversion efficiency of 0.35 for bio-based electricity generation imply a biomass consumption in 2050 ranging from 6.3 to 10.6 TWh for the two scenarios investigated. In both cases, this is well below the production potential for biomass within the region. For the transport sector it is shown in order for the region to reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050, that a series of actions will be required to significantly reduce demand in combination with use of electricity and biofuels. It is estimated that the transport sector in the region will consume some 12.8 TWh biomass annually from 2030 onwards. It is also concluded that such a transformation is unlikely to occur only in the West of Sweden but rather it can be expected that such a development in West Sweden will be part of an overall European transformation of the transport sector. It is concluded that total biomass consumption in the region could potentially more than triple from 14 TWh in 2010 to 48 TWh in 2040, considering the electricity and transport sectors and under the assumption that all heat (DH and industrial heat) should be generated by biomass. Yet, assuming that biomass also replace the fossil based raw materials used by the industry in the region this would raise demand to more than 170 TWh from 2040 onwards, which would imply significant logistical challenges and which can be compared with the current 132 TWh total Swedish biomass supply for energy purposes.
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