| 181. |
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| 182. |
- Gu, X., et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694. ; 590
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Employing a multi-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/°C (1.9%/°C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 °C to 1.5 °C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/°C to an increase of 1.7%/°C. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
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| 183. |
- Guan, Yanlong, et al.
(författare)
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Elevation Regulates the Response of Climate Heterogeneity to Climate Change
- 2024
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Ingår i: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 51:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change represents a profound threat to the diversity and stability of global climate zones. However, the complex interplay between climate change and elevation in shaping climate heterogeneity is not yet fully understood. Here, we combine Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) with the K & ouml;ppen-Geiger climate classification to explore the altitudinal distributions of global climate heterogeneity; and their responses to climate change. The study reveals a distinctive pattern: SHDI, a proxy for climate heterogeneity tends to slow down or decline at lower elevations with increasing temperatures, while at higher elevations, it continues to rise due to continuing cold conditions. Examination of climate simulations, both with and without anthropogenic forcing, confirms that observed changes in climate heterogeneity are primarily attributable to anthropogenic climate change within these high-elevation regions. This study underscores the importance of high-elevation regions as not only custodians of diverse climate types but also potential refuges for species fleeing warmer climates. Climate change is threatening the diversity and stability of global climate patterns. But we're still not completely sure how climate change interacts with elevation to affect climate heterogeneity. In this study, we looked at how climate heterogeneity changes with altitude and responds to climate change. We found that as temperatures rise, the climate diversity tends to decrease at lower elevations, but it increases at higher elevations. We used climate simulations to show that these changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. This study shows that high-elevation regions are important because they can sustain diverse climates and are likely to be a safe haven for plants and animals when climate diversity continues to decline at lower elevations. We employed a high-resolution climate data set to analyze changes in global climate heterogeneity With increasing temperatures, global climate heterogeneity amplifies at higher elevations, while diminishing at lower altitudes Anthropogenic climate change primarily drives alterations in climate heterogeneity at higher elevations
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| 184. |
- Guo, L. L., et al.
(författare)
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Links between global terrestrial water storage and large-scale modes of climatic variability
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694. ; 598
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large-scale states of ocean and atmosphere control the quantity and routine of vapor transported into land and the land water storage pattern. However, the contributions of leading climatic modes, or teleconnections (TCs), to global terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations are poorly understood. Here, we use measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to study 14 main TC controls on river basins and continental and global water storage patterns. Variations in terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) in>97.5% of the global land surface are significantly correlated with at least 1 studied climatic mode. Among the 14 leading climatic modes, the El Ni no-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affect terrestrial water storage in 76.5%, 74.6%, 59.7% and 46.4% of the global land surface, respectively. By associating each TC contribution, ENSO appears to have a weaker control on global land water storage than previously thought for dominating TWSA in 31.8% of global land, in contrast to PDO dominating TWSA in 36.6%. Our results suggest that the phase combination of TCs adjusts the response degree and time lag of land water storage via different hydrological cycle components, while the processes remain dynamic and highly uncertain.
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| 185. |
- Guo, Lianyi, et al.
(författare)
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Projected precipitation changes over China for global warming levels at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in an ensemble of regional climate simulations: impact of bias correction methods
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 162, s. 623-643
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Four bias correction methods, i.e., gamma cumulative distribution function (GamCDF), quantile-quantile adjustment (QQadj), equidistant cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) matching (EDCDF), and transform CDF (CDF-t), to read are applied to five daily precipitation datasets over China produced by LMDZ4-regional that was nested into five global climate models (GCMs), BCC-CSM1-1m, CNRM-CM5, FGOALS-g2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MPI-ESM-MR, respectively. A unified mathematical framework can be used to define the four bias correction methods, which helps understanding their natures and essences for identifying the most reliable probability distributions of projected climate. CDF-t is shown to be the best bias correction method based on a comprehensive evaluation of different precipitation indices. Future precipitation projections corresponding to the global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C under RCP8.5 were obtained using the bias correction methods. The multi-method and multi-model ensemble characteristics allow to explore the spreading of projections, considered a surrogate of climate projection uncertainty, and to attribute such uncertainties to different sources. It was found that the spread among bias correction methods is smaller than that among dynamical downscaling simulations. The four bias correction methods, with CDF-t at the top, all reduce the spread among the downscaled results. Future projection using CDF-t is thus considered having higher credibility.
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| 186. |
- Gustafsson, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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Extreme rainfall events in Southern Sweden: Where does the moisture come from?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Tellus A. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495. ; 62:5, s. 605-616
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The atmospheric transport of moisture leading to extreme summer precipitation events in southern Sweden was investigated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. Surprisingly, we found that the trajectories crossed continental Europe and the Baltic Sea before arriving over Sweden; they did not arrive directly from the North Sea. Such transport pathways were not seen for a control sample of non-extreme rainfall events. We then used a new source region identification technique to investigate the hypothesis that Europe and the Baltic are important sources of the moisture that is rained out in the extreme events. Although the results varied between events, we found that this is indeed the case. Our results establish the atmospheric transport patterns that are apparently a pre-requisite for extreme rainfall events to occur in southern Sweden, and further suggest regional moisture availability may also play a key role.
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| 187. |
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| 188. |
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| 189. |
- Hageback, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Climate variability and land-use change in Danangou watershed, China : Examples of small-scale farmers' adaptation
- 2005
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 72:1-2, s. 189-212
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With global concern on climate change impacts, developing countries are given special attention due their susceptibility. In this paper, change and variability in climate, land use and farmers’ perception, adaptation and response to change are examined in Danangou watershed in the Chinese Loess Plateau. The first focus is to look at how climate data recorded at meteorological stations recently have evolved, and how farmers perceived these changes. Further, we want to see how the farmers respond and adapt to climate variability and what the resulting impact on land use is. Finally, other factors causing change in land use are considered. Local precipitation and temperature instrumental data and interview data from farmers were used. The instrumental data shows that the climate is getting warmer and drier, the latter despite large interannual variability. The trend is seen on the local and regional level. Farmers’ perception of climatic variability corresponds well with the data record. During the last 20 years, the farmers have become less dependent on agriculture by adopting a more diversified livelihood. This adaptation makes them less vulnerable to climate variability. It was found that government policies and reforms had a stronger influence on land use than climate variability. Small-scale farmers should therefore be considered as adaptive to changing situations, planned and non-consciously planned.
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| 190. |
- Hanssen-Bauer, I., et al.
(författare)
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Statistical downscaling of climate scenarios over Scandinavia
- 2005
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Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 29:3, s. 255-268
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies from recent years involving development and application of statistical downscaling models for Scandinavia (mainly Norway and Sweden) are reviewed. In most of the studies linear techniques were applied. Local temperature and/or precipitation were predictands in a majority of the studies. Large-scale temperature fields, either from 2 m or 850 hPa, were found to be the best predictors for local temperature, while a combination of atmospheric circulation indices and tropospheric humidity information were the best predictors for local precipitation. Statistically downscaled temperature scenarios for Scandinavia differ depending on climate model, emission scenario and downscaling strategy. There are nevertheless several common features in the temperature scenarios. The warming rates during the 21st century are projected to increase with distance from the coast and with latitude. In most of Scandinavia higher warming rates are projected in winter than in summer. For precipitation, the spread between different scenarios is larger than for temperature. A substantial part of the projected precipitation change is connected to projected changes in atmospheric circulation, which differ considerably from one model integration to another. A tendency for increased large-scale humidity over Scandinavia still implies that projections for the 21st century typically indicate increased annual precipitation. This tendency is most significant during winter. In northern Scandinavia the projections tend to show increased precipitation also during summer, but several scenarios show reduced summer precipitation in parts of southern Scandinavia. Comparisons with results from global and regional climate models indicate that both regional modeling and statistical downscaling add value to the results from the global models.
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