| 631. |
- Dimitrelos, Antonios, 1986-
(author)
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A large-eddy simulation perspective on Arctic airmass transformation and low-level cloud evolution
- 2022
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The Arctic is currently warming faster than other regions of the Earth. Many processes and feedbacks contribute to the enhanced warming. Among these are the radiative effects of clouds. Arctic mixed-phase clouds, which contain both liquid and ice condensate, have high longevity and can exert significant surface warming since the amount of solar radiation in the region is relatively low and the surface reflectivity often is high. In this thesis, we study these clouds utilizing a large-eddy model coupled with one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model. The main aim is to understand the interactions between cloud dynamics, microphysics, radiation, and turbulent processes and how these together govern the life cycle and surface warming of the clouds. By comparing a group of models with observations from the summertime high Arctic, we confirm the hypothesis that when aerosol concentrations are low, a small increase in their number concentration can increase the liquid water content of the cloud and in turn, the surface warming. Idealized simulations of moist intrusions into the Arctic show that the surface temperature may increase by more than 15o C if we allow clouds to form during a moist intrusion compared to if the atmosphere is cloud free. The simulations also show that the large-scale divergence rate strongly impacts the maintenance of the liquid layer at the top of these clouds. A main finding of the thesis is that the temperature of the cloud that forms during a moist intrusion is close to the initial dew point temperature. Thus, the surface warming induced by the clouds depends mostly on the initial humidity of the air mass rather than the initial temperature. In addition, the stability of the initial dew point temperature profile largely controls the turbulent state of the cloud. If the profile is unstable, then the cloud can transform from a thin, stable stratus to a deeper stratocumulus cloud, which also enhances the surface warming. Consequently, both the initial amount and the vertical structure of the initial moisture of the intrusion are important for the warming of the sea ice. A change in the number of cloud condensation nuclei does not affect the cloud evolution considerably provided that there is a continuous supply of these nuclei. However, if cloud condensation nuclei sources are absent then the cloud may remain in its stable state. Furthermore, a decrease in the cloud ice condensate, which may be caused by a lack of ice nucleation particles, may delay the transformation of the cloud into a stratocumulus. These results suggest that any future change in aerosol loading and atmospheric moisture transport into the Arctic may alter the surface longwave cloud radiative effect and cause changes in the sea ice evolution.
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| 632. |
- Dominguez-Castro, F., et al.
(author)
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Mapping seasonal and annual extreme precipitation over the Peruvian Andes
- 2018
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In: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418. ; 38:15, s. 5459-5475
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Seasonal and annual extreme precipitation over the Peruvian Andes have been mapped for the first time. Maps were developed using the most complete, quality-controlled and homogenous daily precipitation records in Peru from 1973 to 2016. For each observed rain gauge series, we defined parameters as the de-clustered daily intensity, total precipitation duration, total magnitude and dry-spell length. Then, we fitted the seasonal and annual series of these variables to a Generalized-Pareto distribution using a peak-over-threshold approach. We estimated the distribution parameters and validated the performance of different thresholds to obtain the best estimation of precipitation probability. We also mapped the distribution parameters obtained for the different meteorological stations using the universal kriging algorithm, accounting for elevation and the distance to the Pacific Ocean as co-variables. The accuracy of the extreme precipitation maps for a period of 25 and 50 years were validated using a jack-knife approach. Some of the maps show strong uncertainty given the random spatial distribution of the variables as a consequence of the complex topography and climate of the region. Nevertheless, the maps show a useful general assessment of the spatial distribution of the precipitation hazard probability over the region, providing a good agreement with the estimations obtained in the meteorological stations for some variables and time periods analysed. Extreme precipitation maps over this high-complex terrain of Peru are of key importance for flood risk assessment, water resources management, crop yield, soil conservation and human settlements.
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| 633. |
- Driemel, A., et al.
(author)
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From pole to pole: 33 years of physical oceanography onboard R/V Polarstern
- 2017
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In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 9:1, s. 211-220
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Measuring temperature and salinity profiles in the world's oceans is crucial to understanding ocean dynamics and its influence on the heat budget, the water cycle, the marine environment and on our climate. Since 1983 the German research vessel and icebreaker Polarstern has been the platform of numerous CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth instrument) deployments in the Arctic and the Antarctic. We report on a unique data collection spanning 33 years of polar CTD data. In total 131 data sets (1 data set per cruise leg) containing data from 10 063 CTD casts are now freely available at doi: 10.1594/PANGAEA.860066. During this long period five CTD types with different characteristics and accuracies have been used. Therefore the instruments and processing procedures (sensor calibration, data validation, etc.) are described in detail. This compilation is special not only with regard to the quantity but also the quality of the data -the latter indicated for each data set using defined quality codes. The complete data collection includes a number of repeated sections for which the quality code can be used to investigate and evaluate long-term changes. Beginning with 2010, the salinity measurements presented here are of the highest quality possible in this field owing to the introduction of the OPTIMARE Precision Salinometer.
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| 634. |
- Drobyshev, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia
- 2016
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.
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| 635. |
- Drobyshev, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Forest fire activity in Sweden: Climatic controls and geographical patterns in 20th century
- 2012
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In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 154-155, s. 174-186
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We used Swedish county-scale forest fire statistics to quantify modern fire activity, identify its main temporal and geographical patterns, and evaluate statistical performance of six fire-related weather indices as proxy of fire activity in Sweden over 1942–1975 and 1996–2008, the periods with available countyscale fire statistics. The analyzed indices were monthly precipitation, SPI, MDC, PDSI, calibrated PDSI, and DI, a Drought Index calculated as a ratio between actual and equilibrium evapotranspiration. The modern fire cycle (FC) in the northern part of Sweden varies between 2 × 103 and 3 × 104 years, whereas in southern Sweden the FC is somewhat shorter (103–2 × 104 years). No temporal trend in average FC was evident at the country scale between the two periods. Significant and negative values of a Mantel test, obtained on county data for both periods (r = −0.494, p = 0.001 for 1942–1975 and r = −0.281 and p = 0.015 for 1996–2008) indicated the presence of a geographical pattern in annual forest fire activity. Over 1942–1975, PCA revealed that the central and northern counties formed one group with synchronized fire activity, and the southern and south–western counties formed another group. This pattern became less evident during the more recent period (1996–2008). Over 1996–2008, the analysis showed little synchronicity in annual fire activity across different parts of the country. The geographical position of a county had a clear effect on seasonal pattern of forest fires. In southern Sweden, the peak in the number of fires and the burnt area was in April–May, during a relatively short dry period immediately following the snowmelt. In northern Sweden, fires in the second half of fire season dominated the total annual area burnt. Analyzed indices differed considerably in their predictive power in respect to counties’ records of annual area burnt. Calibrated PDSI was a superior proxy of fire activity for the southern region (R2 = 60.8% in regression against total annual area burnt for respective provinces), and DIlate (Drought Index for the first half of the growing season) was superior for the northern counties (R2 = 73.3%). Predictive power of the indices was much higher for the recent period (1996–2002), with R2 values staying within 81.2 and 97.8%. Even if modern levels of forest fire activity in Sweden are very low from historical perspective, there is a strong spatiotemporal association between fire activity and climatic variability at regional scales, which provides a basis for modeling of the future fire hazard.
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| 636. |
- Drobyshev, Igor
(author)
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Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth
- 2022
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.Here the authors show that extremes in the summer jet stream position over Europe create a beech forest productivity dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe and can result in regional anomalies in forest carbon uptake and growth.
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| 637. |
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| 638. |
- Duncan, David, 1988, et al.
(author)
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An update on atmospheric ice estimates from satellite observations and reanalyses
- 2018
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 18:15, s. 11205-11219
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study assesses the global distribution of mean atmospheric ice mass from current state-of-the-art estimates and its variability on daily and seasonal timescales. Ice water path (IWP) retrievals from active and passive satellite platforms are analysed and compared with estimates from two reanalysis data sets, ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5, ECMWF) and MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2). Large discrepancies in IWP exist between the satellite data sets themselves, making validation of the model results problematic and indicating that progress towards a consensus on the distribution of atmospheric ice has been limited. Comparing the data sets, zonal means of IWP exhibit similar shapes but differing magnitudes, with large IWP values causing much of the difference in means. Diurnal analysis centred on A-Train overpasses shows similar structures in some regions, but the degree and sign of the variability varies widely; the reanalyses exhibit noisier and higher-amplitude diurnal variability than borne out by the satellite estimates. Spatial structures governed by the atmospheric general circulation are fairly consistent across the data sets, as principal component analysis shows that the patterns of seasonal variability line up well between the data sets but disagree in severity. These results underscore the limitations of the current Earth observing system with respect to atmospheric ice, as the level of consensus between observations is mixed. The large-scale variability of IWP is relatively consistent, whereas disagreements on diurnal variability and global means point to varying microphysical assumptions in retrievals and models alike that seem to underlie the biggest differences.
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| 639. |
- Duncanson, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Aboveground biomass density models for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar mission
- 2022
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In: Remote Sensing of Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0034-4257 .- 1879-0704. ; 270
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is collecting spaceborne full waveform lidar data with a primary science goal of producing accurate estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD). This paper presents the development of the models used to create GEDI's footprint-level (~25 m) AGBD (GEDI04_A) product, including a description of the datasets used and the procedure for final model selection. The data used to fit our models are from a compilation of globally distributed spatially and temporally coincident field and airborne lidar datasets, whereby we simulated GEDI-like waveforms from airborne lidar to build a calibration database. We used this database to expand the geographic extent of past waveform lidar studies, and divided the globe into four broad strata by Plant Functional Type (PFT) and six geographic regions. GEDI's waveform-to-biomass models take the form of parametric Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with simulated Relative Height (RH) metrics as predictor variables. From an exhaustive set of candidate models, we selected the best input predictor variables, and data transformations for each geographic stratum in the GEDI domain to produce a set of comprehensive predictive footprint-level models. We found that model selection frequently favored combinations of RH metrics at the 98th, 90th, 50th, and 10th height above ground-level percentiles (RH98, RH90, RH50, and RH10, respectively), but that inclusion of lower RH metrics (e.g. RH10) did not markedly improve model performance. Second, forced inclusion of RH98 in all models was important and did not degrade model performance, and the best performing models were parsimonious, typically having only 1-3 predictors. Third, stratification by geographic domain (PFT, geographic region) improved model performance in comparison to global models without stratification. Fourth, for the vast majority of strata, the best performing models were fit using square root transformation of field AGBD and/or height metrics. There was considerable variability in model performance across geographic strata, and areas with sparse training data and/or high AGBD values had the poorest performance. These models are used to produce global predictions of AGBD, but will be improved in the future as more and better training data become available.
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| 640. |
- Dunn, R. J. H., et al.
(author)
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GLOBAL CLIMATE : State of the Climate in 2020
- 2021
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In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 102:8, s. S11-S141
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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