| 1. |
- Rodríguez, A., et al.
(författare)
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Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 264, s. 351-362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.
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| 2. |
- Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 260-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
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| 3. |
- Keasar, Chen, et al.
(författare)
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An analysis and evaluation of the WeFold collaborative for protein structure prediction and its pipelines in CASP11 and CASP12
- 2018
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2045-2322. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Every two years groups worldwide participate in the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to blindly test the strengths and weaknesses of their computational methods. CASP has significantly advanced the field but many hurdles still remain, which may require new ideas and collaborations. In 2012 a web-based effort called WeFold, was initiated to promote collaboration within the CASP community and attract researchers from other fields to contribute new ideas to CASP. Members of the WeFold coopetition (cooperation and competition) participated in CASP as individual teams, but also shared components of their methods to create hybrid pipelines and actively contributed to this effort. We assert that the scale and diversity of integrative prediction pipelines could not have been achieved by any individual lab or even by any collaboration among a few partners. The models contributed by the participating groups and generated by the pipelines are publicly available at the WeFold website providing a wealth of data that remains to be tapped. Here, we analyze the results of the 2014 and 2016 pipelines showing improvements according to the CASP assessment as well as areas that require further adjustments and research.
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| 4. |
- Pigeot, I., et al.
(författare)
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The IDEFICS intervention trial to prevent childhood obesity: Design and study methods
- 2015
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Ingår i: Obesity Reviews. - : Wiley. - 1467-7881 .- 1467-789X. ; 16, s. 4-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: One of the major research dimensions of the Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS (IDEFICS) study involved the development, implementation and evaluation of a setting-based community-oriented intervention programme for primary prevention of childhood obesity. In this supplement of Obesity Reviews, a compilation of key results of the IDEFICS intervention is packaged in a series of complementary papers. Objective: This paper describes the overall design and methods of the IDEFICS intervention in order to facilitate a comprehensive reading of the supplement. In addition, some 'best practice' examples are described. Results: The IDEFICS intervention trial was conducted to assess whether the IDEFICS intervention prevented obesity in young children aged 2 to 9.9years. The study was a non-randomized, quasi-experimental trial with one intervention matched to one control region in each of eight participating countries. The intervention was designed following the intervention mapping framework, using a socio-ecological theoretical approach. The intervention was designed to address several key obesity-related behaviours in children, parents, schools and community actors; the primary outcome was the prevalence of overweight/obesity according to the IOTF criteria based on body mass index. The aim was to achieve a reduction of overweight/obesity prevalence in the intervention regions. The intervention was delivered in school and community settings over a 2-year period. Data were collected in the intervention and control cohort regions at baseline and 2 years later. Conclusion: This paper offers an introductory framework for a comprehensive reading of this supplement on IDEFICS intervention key results. © 2015 World Obesity.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Abreu-Mendes, Pedro, et al.
(författare)
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Myofascial Pelvic Pain : Best Orientation and Clinical Practice. Position of the European Association of Urology Guidelines Panel on Chronic Pelvic Pain
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Urology Focus. - : Elsevier. - 2405-4569. ; 9:1, s. 172-177
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: Despite the high prevalence of a myofascial pain component in chronic pelvic pain (CPP) syndromes, awareness and management of this component are lacking among health care providers.OBJECTIVE: To summarize the current state of the art for the management of myofascial pain in chronic primary pelvic pain syndromes (CPPPS) according to scientific research and input from experts from the European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines panel on CPP.EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A narrative review was undertaken using three sources: (1) information in the EAU guidelines on CPP; (2) information retrieved from the literature on research published in the past 3 yr on myofascial pelvic pain; and (3) expert opinion from panel members.EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Studies confirm a high prevalence of a myofascial pain component in CPPPS. Examination of the pelvic floor muscles should follow published recommendations to standardize findings and disseminate the procedure. Treatment of pelvic floor muscle dysfunction and pain in the context of CPP was found to contribute to CPP control and is feasible via different physiotherapy techniques. A multidisciplinary approach is the most effective.CONCLUSIONS: Despite its high prevalence, the myofascial component of CPP has been underevaluated and undertreated to date. Myofascial pain must be assessed in all patients with CPPPS. Treatment of the myofascial pain component is relevant for global treatment success. Further studies are imperative to reinforce and better define the role of each physiotherapy technique in CPPPS.PATIENT SUMMARY: Pain and inflammation of the body's muscle and soft tissues (myofascial pain) frequently occurs in pelvic pain syndromes. Its presence must be evaluated to optimize management for each patient. If diagnosed, myofascial pain should be treated.
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| 7. |
- Bollerslev, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of surgery on cardiovascular risk factors in mild primary hyperparathyroidism.
- 2009
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Ingår i: The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 1945-7197 .- 0021-972X. ; 94:7, s. 2255-61
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: Mild primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) seems to have a good prognosis, and indications for active treatment (surgery) are widely discussed. The extraskeletal effects of PTH, such as insulin resistance, arterial hypertension, and cardiovascular (CV) risk, may however be reversible by operation. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to study biochemical markers of bone turnover, indices of the metabolic syndrome, and various risk markers for CV disease in patients with mild pHPT randomized to observation without surgery or operative treatment and followed for 2 yr. DESIGN/SETTING/PATIENTS: A total of 116 patients (mean age, 63 +/- 8 yr; 19 men and 97 women) who on May 1, 2008, had performed the 2-yr visit in a randomized study on mild pHPT (serum calcium at baseline, 2.69 +/- 0.11 mmol/liter) and where frozen samples were available from baseline and follow-up participated in the study. RESULTS: Calcium and PTH levels were normalized after surgery, and biochemical markers of bone turnover decreased by 35%, followed by a significant increase in BMD in the spine (2.7%; P < 0.01) and femoral neck (1.1%; P < 0.02) compared with the observation group. No significant differences were observed between the groups for blood pressure, markers of insulin resistance, detailed cholesterol metabolism, adipokines, or parameters of inflammation and CV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: We observed expected effects on biochemical markers of bone turnover and bone mass after surgical treatment of mild pHPT, with stable values in the group randomized to observation. For a variety of measures of the metabolic syndrome, adipokines, and CV risk factors, no benefit of operative treatment could be demonstrated. Neither did we observe any deleterious effects of conservative management in the 2-yr perspective.
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| 8. |
- Bollerslev, J., et al.
(författare)
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Medical observation, compared with parathyroidectomy, for asymptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism: a prospective, randomized trial
- 2007
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Ingår i: The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 0021-972X .- 1945-7197. ; 92:5, s. 1687-92
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: The clinical presentation of primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) has changed during the last half century, and the diagnosis is now more often made by chance in patients with no specific symptoms. OBJECTIVE: The present study is a randomized, controlled trial that investigates the effects of parathyroidectomy or medical observation in mild asymptomatic pHPT on morbidity and quality of life (QoL). DESIGN/SETTING/PATIENTS: A total of 191 patients (26 men) with asymptomatic pHPT [mean age 64.2 +/- 7.4 (sd) yr] were recruited in the study and randomized to medical observation (serum calcium level 2.69 +/- 0.08 mmol/liter) or surgery (2.70 +/- 0.08 mmol/liter). We here report baseline and 1 (n = 119) and 2 yr data (n = 99) on those who had completed the follow-up visits by the end of the inclusion period. RESULTS: At baseline, the patients had significantly lower QoL (SF-36) and more psychological symptoms, compared with age- and sex-matched healthy subjects. The two groups were similar at baseline, and no clinically significant changes in these parameters were seen during the observation time. Calcium and PTH normalized after surgery. The areal bone mineral density increased in the group randomized to operation, whereas the bone mineral density remained stable in the medical observation group. No change in kidney function (creatinine) or blood pressure was observed longitudinally or between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic patients with mild pHPT have decreased QoL and more psychological symptoms than normal controls. No benefit of operative treatment, compared with medical observation, was found on these measures so far.
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| 9. |
- Fall, Magnus, 1941, et al.
(författare)
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Chronic pelvic pain, Guidelines on pain management
- 2008
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Ingår i: Published by the Guidelines Office of European Association of Urology. - 9789070244910 ; -:-, s. 1-99
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 10. |
- Fronzek, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 209-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses.The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern.The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description.Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index.Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.
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