| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Elgán, T. H., et al.
(author)
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Psychometric properties of the short version of the children of alcoholics screening test (CAST-6) among Swedish adolescents
- 2021
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In: Nordic Journal of Psychiatry. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0803-9488 .- 1502-4725. ; 75:2, s. 155-158
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims The Children of Alcoholics Screening Test (CAST-6) is a brief screening instrument developed to identify children with parents having problematic alcohol use. The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the CAST-6 among adolescents aged 15-18 years, and also to identify an optimal cut-off score for this age group. Methods A total of 3000 15 to18 year-olds were randomly selected from a register of postal addresses in Sweden. An invitation letter, including access information to the electronic questionnaire, was sent out by regular mail and 1450 adolescents responded with baseline data. Test-retest reliability within a 2-3-week period was calculated based on the 111 respondents who answered the same questionnaire twice. To determine an optimal cut-off score, a small treatment-seeking sample (n = 22) was recruited from a support group agency to be used as a reference group. Results The six items of the CAST-6 screening test loaded onto one latent factor with good internal consistency (alpha = 0.88), and excellent test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.95). The optimal cut-off score among adolescents was 2 points with a sensitivity of 55% and specificity of 79% (AUROC = 0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.83). Conclusions The CAST-6 has good to excellent psychometric properties among adolescents. The identified optimal cut-off score of 2 points should be treated with caution due to study limitations. The CAST-6 can be used in various settings to identify a vulnerable at-risk group of children and adolescents that may be in need of support.
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| 5. |
- Berman, Anne H., et al.
(author)
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Design and Development of a Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) System to Reduce Impulsivity among Violent Forensic Outpatients and Probationers
- 2012
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In: Journal of medical systems. - : Springer Netherlands. - 0148-5598 .- 1573-689X. ; 36:3, s. 1031-1042
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Forensic services face the challenge of reducing relapse among clients with a history of violent crime. An automated interactive voice response (IVR) service of the complex Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) type, with a focus on reducing impulsivity, could improve the adequacy of service responses to client needs. Theoretically based in Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT), Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) and Motivational Interviewing (MI), the forensic TLC system offers interactive conversations on coping with the emotions of anger, shame and loneliness; activities of daily life such as getting out of bed, asking for help, visiting social services and taking medication; and other areas such as hearing voices, drinking alcohol and self-critical thoughts. We describe the user´s flow through the system, with an in-depth synopsis of the hearing voices intervention. Issues regarding voluntary versus mandatory use of the system are addressed in connection with prospective introduction of the system in forensic settings.
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| 6. |
- Berman, Anne H., et al.
(author)
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Evaluation of the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT) in criminal justice and detoxification settings and in a Swedish population sample
- 2005
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In: European Addiction Research. - : S. Karger AG. - 1022-6877 .- 1421-9891. ; 11:1, s. 22-31
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Psychometric properties of the 11-item self-report Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT) were evaluated in a sample of heavy drug users from prison, probation, and inpatient detoxification settings, and in a general Swedish population sample. In the drug user sample, the DUDIT predicted drug dependence with a sensitivity of 90% for both DSM-4 and ICD-10 and a respective specificity of 78 and 88%. Reliability according to Cronbach’s α coefficient was 0.80. In the population sample, 3.1% scored positive on the DUDIT; T-score values are suggested. The DUDIT screens effectively for drug-related problems in clinically selected groups and may prove useful in the context of public health surveys.
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| 7. |
- Dekker, Joost, et al.
(author)
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Definition and Characteristics of Behavioral Medicine, and Main Tasks and Goals of the International Society of Behavioral Medicine : an International Delphi Study
- 2021
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In: International Journal of Behavioral Medicine. - New York : Springer. - 1070-5503 .- 1532-7558. ; 28:3, s. 268-276
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: In the past decades, behavioral medicine has attained global recognition. Due to its global reach, a critical need has emerged to consider whether the original definition of behavioral medicine is still valid, comprehensive, and inclusive, and to reconsider the main tasks and goals of the International Society of Behavioral Medicine (ISBM), as the umbrella organization in the field. The purpose of the present study was to (i) update the definition and scope of behavioral medicine and its defining characteristics; and (ii) develop a proposal on ISBM's main tasks and goals.Method: Our study used the Delphi method. A core group prepared a discussion paper. An international Delphi panel rated questions and provided comments. The panel intended to reach an a priori defined level of consensus (i.e., 70%).Results: The international panel reached consensus on an updated definition and scope of behavioral medicine as a field of research and practice that builds on collaboration among multiple disciplines. These disciplines are concerned with development and application of behavioral and biomedical evidence across the disease continuum in clinical and public health domains. Consensus was reached on a proposal for ISBM's main tasks and goals focused on supporting communication and collaboration across disciplines and participating organizations; stimulating research, education, and practice; and supporting individuals and organizations in the field.Conclusion: The consensus on definition and scope of behavioral medicine and ISBM's tasks and goals provides a foundational step toward achieving these goals.
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| 8. |
- Durbeej, N., et al.
(author)
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Substance abuse treatment as a predictor of criminal recidivism among psychiatrically examined Swedish offenders
- 2010
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In: European psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 0924-9338 .- 1778-3585. ; 25:Supplement 1, s. 32-32
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background. Substance abuse is clearly associated with criminal recidivism among offenders with and without mental disorder. Treatment for substance abuse correlates with lower rates of re-offending among participants in outpatient-based as well as institution-based substance abuse treatment programs. However, for offenders with mental disorder, research on the possible preventive effect of substance abuse treatment on criminal recidivism is sparse. This paper reports from on an ongoing naturalistic and prospective interview study on the relationship between post-release outpatient substance abuse treatment and re-offending. Methods. The Stockholm county sample comprises 246 offenders of both genders subjected to a forensic psychiatric assessment, who screened positive for substance abuse problems. Eighty-five percent (n=210) agreed to participate in the study. Baseline data and follow-up interview data, collected immediately on release from incarceration (prison/forensic hospital) and 6 and 12 months later, include self-reported substance abuse, treatment involvement and criminality. By February 2010, data will be available from the first follow-up for 150 participants, from the second follow-up for 80 individuals and from the third follow-up for 10 subjects. Results and conclusions. The focus of the presentation will be recidivism comparisons between substance abuse treatment utilizers and those who decline treatment. Data on ongoing levels of substance abuse, mental health problems and offending will serve as dependent variables. Additional analyses will present perceived benefit from and reasons for accepting or rejecting treatment.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Durbeej, Natalie, et al.
(author)
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Validation of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test in a Swedish sample of suspected offenders with signs of mental health problems : results from the Mental Disorder, Substance Abuse and Crime study
- 2010
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In: Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0740-5472 .- 1873-6483. ; 39:4, s. 364-377
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Substance abuse is common among offenders. One method widely used for the detection of substance abuse is screening. This study explored the concurrent validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT) screening tools in relation to (a) substance abuse and dependency diagnoses and (b) three problem severity domains of the sixth version of the Addiction Severity Index in a sample of 181 suspected offenders with signs of mental health problems. The screening tools showed moderate to high accuracy for identification of dependency diagnoses. The AUDIT was associated with alcohol problem severity, whereas the DUDIT was associated with drug and legal problem severity. Administering the screening tools in the current population yields valid results. However, the suggested cutoff scores should be applied with caution due to the discrepancy between present and previous findings.
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