| 1. |
- Babchishin, Kelly M., et al.
(författare)
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Are There Early Risk Markers for Pedophilia? : A Nationwide Case-Control Study of Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offenders
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Sex Research. - : ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD. - 0022-4499 .- 1559-8519. ; 56:2, s. 203-212
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although prior research suggests associations between parental characteristics and later sexual offending in offspring, possible links between early pregnancy-related factors and sexual offending remain unclear. Early risk markers unique to sexual offending, however, may be more prominent among sexual offenders with atypical sexual interests, such as individuals involved with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM; also referred to as child pornography). We examined the prospective association between parental and pregnancy-related risk markers and a behavioral indicator of pedophilic interest, CSEM offending. All 655 men born in Sweden and convicted of CSEM offending between 1988 to 2009 were matched 1:5 on sex, birth year, and county of birth in Sweden to 3,928 controls without sexual or nonsexual violent convictions. Paternal age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.1, 1.7]), parental education (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI [0.6, 0.9]), parental violent criminality (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI [2.2, 3.8]), number of older brothers (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI [0.6, 0.9] per brother), and congenital malformations (AOR = 1.7, 95% CI [1.2, 2.4]) all independently predicted CSEM convictions. This large-scale, nationwide study suggests parental risk markers for CSEM offending. We did not, however, find convincing evidence for pregnancy-related risk markers, with the exception of congenital malformations and having fewer older brothers.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Chang, Zheng, et al.
(författare)
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Association Between Prescription of Major Psychotropic Medications and Violent Reoffending After Prison Release
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - Chicago, USA : American Medical Association. - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 316:17, s. 1798-1807
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Individuals released from prison have high rates of violent reoffending, and there is uncertainty about whether pharmacological treatments reduce reoffending risk.Objective: To investigate the associations between major classes of psychotropic medications and violent reoffending.Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included all released prisoners in Sweden from July 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010, through linkage of population-based registers. Rates of violent reoffending during medicated periods were compared with rates during nonmedicated periods using within-individual analyses. Follow-up ended December 31, 2013.Exposures: Periods with or without dispensed prescription of psychotropic medications (antipsychotics, antidepressants, psychostimulants, drugs used in addictive disorders, and antiepileptic drugs) after prison release. Prison-based psychological treatments were investigated as a secondary exposure.Main Outcomes and Measures: Violent crime after release from prison.Results: The cohort included 22 275 released prisoners (mean [SD] age, 38 [13] years; 91.9% male). During follow-up (median, 4.6 years; interquartile range, 3.0-6.4 years), 4031 individuals (18.1%) had 5653 violent reoffenses. The within-individual hazard ratio (HR) associated with dispensed antipsychotics was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.39-0.88), based on 100 events in 1596 person-years during medicated periods and 1044 events in 11 026 person-years during nonmedicated periods, equating to a risk difference of 39.7 (95% CI, 11.3-57.7) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years. The within-individual HR associated with dispensed psychostimulants was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.40-0.98), based on 94 events in 1648 person-years during medicated periods and 513 events in 4553 person-years during nonmedicated periods, equating to a risk difference of 42.8 (95% CI, 2.2-67.6) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years. The within-individual HR associated with dispensed drugs for addictive disorders was 0.48 (95% CI, 0.23-0.97), based on 46 events in 1168 person-years during medicated periods and 1103 events in 15 725 person-years during nonmedicated periods, equating to a risk difference of 36.4 (95% CI, 2.1-54.0) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years. In contrast, antidepressants and antiepileptics were not significantly associated with violent reoffending rates (HR = 1.09 [95% CI, 0.83-1.43] and 1.14 [95% CI, 0.79-1.65], respectively). The most common prison-based program was psychological treatments for substance abuse, associated with an HR of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.89), which equated to a risk difference of 23.2 (95% CI, 10.3-34.1) fewer violent reoffenses per 1000 person-years.Conclusions and Relevance: Among released prisoners in Sweden, rates of violent reoffending were lower during periods when individiduals were dispensed antipsychotics, psychostimulants, and drugs for addictive disorders, compared with periods in which they were not dispensed these medications. Further research is needed to understand the causal nature of this association.
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| 4. |
- Chang, Zheng, et al.
(författare)
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Psychiatric disorders and violent reoffending : a national cohort study of convicted prisoners in Sweden
- 2015
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Ingår i: Lancet psychiatry. - Oxon,United kingdom : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 2:10, s. 891-900
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Reoffending and presence of psychiatric disorders are common in prisoners worldwide. However, whether psychiatric disorders are risk factors for reoffending is still unknown. We aimed to examine the association between psychiatric disorders, including substance use disorder, and violent reoffending.Methods: We did a longitudinal cohort study of 47,326 prisoners who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden. We obtained data for diagnosed psychiatric disorders from both inpatient and outpatient registers, and sociodemographic and criminological factors from other population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for violent reoffending with Cox regression. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared sibling prisoners with and without psychiatric disorders. We calculated population attributable fraction to assess the population effect.Findings: Diagnosed psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased hazard of violent reoffending in male (adjusted HR 1·63 [95% CI 1·57-1·70]) and female (2·02 [1·54-2·63]) prisoners, and these associations were independent of measured sociodemographic and criminological factors, and, in men, remained substantial after adjustment for unmeasured familial factors (2·01 [1·66-2·43]). However, findings differed between individual diagnoses and sex. We found some evidence of stronger effects on violent reoffending of alcohol and drug use disorders and bipolar disorder than of other psychiatric disorders. Alcohol use disorder seemed to have a greater effect in women than in men (women 2·08 [1·66-2·60]; men 1·63 [1·56-1·71]). The overall effects of psychiatric disorders did not differ with severity of crime. The hazard of violent reoffending increased in a stepwise way with the number of diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Assuming causality, up to 20% (95% CI 19-22) of violent reoffending in men and 40% (27-52) in women was attributable to the diagnosed psychiatric disorders that we investigated.Interpretation Certain psychiatric disorders are associated with a substantially increased hazard of violent reoffending. Because these disorders are prevalent and mostly treatable, improvements to prison mental health services could counteract the cycle of reoffending and improve both public health and safety. National violence prevention strategies should consider the role of prison health.Funding: Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare.
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| 5. |
- Chang, Zheng, et al.
(författare)
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Stimulant ADHD medication and risk for substance abuse
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. - Hoboken, USA : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0021-9630 .- 1469-7610. ; 55:8, s. 878-885
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: There are persistent concerns of long-term effects of stimulant ADHD medication on the development of substance abuse.Methods: Using Swedish national registers, we studied all individuals born between 1960 and 1998 and diagnosed with ADHD (26,249 men and 12,504 women). We investigated the association between stimulant ADHD medication in 2006 and substance abuse during 2009. Substance abuse was indexed by substance-related death, crime, or hospital visits.Results: ADHD medication was not associated with increased rate of substance abuse. Actually, the rate during 2009 was 31% lower among those prescribed ADHD medication in 2006, even after controlling for medication in 2009 and other covariates (hazard ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.84). Also, the longer the duration of medication, the lower the rate of substance abuse. Similar risk reductions were suggested among children and when investigating the association between stimulant ADHD medication and concomitant short-term abuse.Conclusions: We found no indication of increased risks of substance abuse among individuals prescribed stimulant ADHD medication; if anything, the data suggested a long-term protective effect on substance abuse. Although stimulant ADHD medication does not seem to increase the risk for substance abuse, clinicians should remain alert to the potential problem of stimulant misuse and diversion in ADHD patients.
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| 6. |
- Chang, Zheng, et al.
(författare)
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Substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, and mortality after release from prison : a nationwide longitudinal cohort study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Lancet psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 2:5, s. 422-430
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: High mortality rates have been reported in people released from prison compared with the general population. However, few studies have investigated potential risk factors associated with these high rates, especially psychiatric determinants. We aimed to investigate the association between psychiatric disorders and mortality in people released from prison in Sweden.METHODS: We studied all people who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden for risks of all-cause and external-cause (accidents, suicide, homicide) mortality after prison release. We obtained data for substance use disorders and other psychiatric disorders, and criminological and sociodemographic factors from population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) by Cox regression, and then used them to calculate population attributable fractions for post-release mortality. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared individuals in the study with siblings who were also released from prison, but without psychiatric disorders. We tested whether any independent risk factors improved the prediction of mortality beyond age, sex, and criminal history.FINDINGS: We identified 47,326 individuals who were imprisoned. During a median follow-up time of 5·1 years (IQR 2·6-7·5), we recorded 2874 (6%) deaths after release from prison. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 1205 deaths per 100,000 person-years. Substance use disorders significantly increased the rate of all-cause mortality (alcohol use: adjusted HR 1·62, 95% CI 1·48-1·77; drug use: 1·67, 1·53-1·83), and the association was independent of sociodemographic, criminological, and familial factors. We identified no strong evidence that other psychiatric disorders increased mortality after we controlled for potential confounders. In people released from prison, 925 (34%) of all-cause deaths in men and 85 (50%) in women were potentially attributable to substance use disorders. Substance use disorders were also an independent determinant of external-cause mortality, with population attributable fraction estimates at 42% in men and 70% in women. Substance use disorders significantly improved the prediction of external-cause mortality, in addition to sociodemographic and criminological factors.INTERPRETATION: Interventions to address substance use disorders could substantially decrease the burden of excess mortality in people released from prison, but might need to be provided beyond the immediate period after release.
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| 7. |
- Chen, Qi, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting suicide attempt or suicide death following a visit to psychiatric specialty care : A machine learning study using Swedish national registry data
- 2020
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - San Francisco : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 17:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Suicide is a major public health concern globally. Accurately predicting suicidal behavior remains challenging. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches to examine the potential of the Swedish national registry data for prediction of suicidal behavior.METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study sample consisted of 541,300 inpatient and outpatient visits by 126,205 Sweden-born patients (54% female and 46% male) aged 18 to 39 (mean age at the visit: 27.3) years to psychiatric specialty care in Sweden between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2012. The most common psychiatric diagnoses at the visit were anxiety disorders (20.0%), major depressive disorder (16.9%), and substance use disorders (13.6%). A total of 425 candidate predictors covering demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status (SES), electronic medical records, criminality, as well as family history of disease and crime were extracted from the Swedish registry data. The sample was randomly split into an 80% training set containing 433,024 visits and a 20% test set containing 108,276 visits. Models were trained separately for suicide attempt/death within 90 and 30 days following a visit using multiple machine learning algorithms. Model discrimination and calibration were both evaluated. Among all eligible visits, 3.5% (18,682) were followed by a suicide attempt/death within 90 days and 1.7% (9,099) within 30 days. The final models were based on ensemble learning that combined predictions from elastic net penalized logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and a neural network. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) on the test set were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87-0.89) and 0.89 (95% CI = 0.88-0.90) for the outcome within 90 days and 30 days, respectively, both being significantly better than chance (i.e., AUC = 0.50) (p < 0.01). Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were reported at different risk thresholds. A limitation of our study is that our models have not yet been externally validated, and thus, the generalizability of the models to other populations remains unknown.CONCLUSIONS: By combining the ensemble method of multiple machine learning algorithms and high-quality data solely from the Swedish registers, we developed prognostic models to predict short-term suicide attempt/death with good discrimination and calibration. Whether novel predictors can improve predictive performance requires further investigation.
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| 8. |
- Dobrosavljevic, Maja, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Risk prediction model for cardiovascular diseases in adults initiating pharmacological treatment for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder
- 2022
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Ingår i: Evidence-Based Mental Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1362-0347 .- 1468-960X. ; 25, s. 185-190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Available prediction models ofcardiovascular diseases (CVDs) may not accuratelypredict outcomes among individuals initiatingpharmacological treatment for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).Objective: To improve the predictive accuracyof traditional CVD risk factors for adults initiatingpharmacological treatment of ADHD, by consideringnovel CVD risk factors associated with ADHD (comorbidpsychiatric disorders, sociodemographic factors andpsychotropic medication).Methods: The cohort composed of 24 186 adultsresiding in Sweden without previous CVDs, born between1932 and 1990, who started pharmacological treatmentof ADHD between 2008 and 2011, and were followedfor up to 2 years. CVDs were identified using diagnosesaccording to the International Classification of Diseases,and dispended medication prescriptions from Swedishnational registers. Cox proportional hazards regressionwas employed to derive the prediction model.Findings: The developed model included eighttraditional and four novel CVD risk factors. Themodel showed acceptable overall discrimination (Cindex=0.72, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74) and calibration(Brier score=0.008). The Integrated DiscriminationImprovement index showed a significant improvementafter adding novel risk factors (0.003 (95% CI 0.001 to0.007), p<0.001).Conclusions: The inclusion of the novel CVD riskfactors may provide a better prediction of CVDs in thispopulation compared with traditional CVD predictorsonly, when the model is used with a continuous riskscore. External validation studies and studies assessingclinical impact of the model are warranted.Clinical implications: Individuals initiatingpharmacological treatment of ADHD at higher risk ofdeveloping CVDs should be more closely monitored.
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| 9. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(författare)
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Antipsychotics, mood stabilisers, and risk of violent crime
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - London, United Kingdom : The Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9949, s. 1206-1214
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Antipsychotics and mood stabilisers are prescribed widely to patients with psychiatric disorders worldwide. Despite clear evidence for their efficacy in relapse prevention and symptom relief, their effect on some adverse outcomes, including the perpetration of violent crime, is unclear. We aimed to establish the effect of antipsychotics and mood stabilisers on the rate of violent crime committed by patients with psychiatric disorders in Sweden.Methods: We used linked Swedish national registers to study 82,647 patients who were prescribed antipsychotics or mood stabilisers, their psychiatric diagnoses, and subsequent criminal convictions in 2006-09. We did within-individual analyses to compare the rate of violent criminality during the time that patients were prescribed these medications versus the rate for the same patients while they were not receiving the drugs to adjust for all confounders that remained constant within each participant during follow-up. The primary outcome was the occurrence of violent crime, according to Sweden's national crime register.Findings: In 2006-09, 40,937 men in Sweden were prescribed antipsychotics or mood stabilisers, of whom 2657 (6·5%) were convicted of a violent crime during the study period. In the same period, 41,710 women were prescribed these drugs, of whom 604 (1·4 %) had convictions for violent crime. Compared with periods when participants were not on medication, violent crime fell by 45% in patients receiving antipsychotics (hazard ratio [HR] 0·55, 95% CI 0·47-0·64) and by 24% in patients prescribed mood stabilisers (0·76, 0·62-0·93). However, we identified potentially important differences by diagnosis-mood stabilisers were associated with a reduced rate of violent crime only in patients with bipolar disorder. The rate of violence reduction for antipsychotics remained between 22% and 29% in sensitivity analyses that used different outcomes (any crime, drug-related crime, less severe crime, and violent arrest), and was stronger in patients who were prescribed higher drug doses than in those prescribed low doses. Notable reductions in violent crime were also recorded for depot medication (HR adjusted for concomitant oral medications 0·60, 95% CI 0·39-0·92).Interpretation: In addition to relapse prevention and psychiatric symptom relief, the benefits of antipsychotics and mood stabilisers might also include reductions in the rates of violent crime. The potential effects of these drugs on violence and crime should be taken into account when treatment options for patients with psychiatric disorders are being considered.Funding: The Wellcome Trust, the Swedish Prison and Probation Service, the Swedish Research Council, and the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare.
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| 10. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(författare)
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Depression and violence : a Swedish population study
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet Psychiatry. - Stockholm : Karolinska Institutet, Dept of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics. - 2215-0366 .- 2215-0374.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Depression increases the risk of a range of adverse outcomes including suicide, premature mortality, and self-harm, but associations with violent crime remain uncertain. We aimed to determine the risks of violent crime in patients with depression and to investigate the association between depressive symptoms and violent crime in a cohort of twins. METHODS: We conducted two studies. The first was a total population study in Sweden of patients with outpatient diagnoses of depressive disorders (n=47,158) between 2001 and 2009 and no lifetime inpatient episodes. Patients were age and sex matched to general population controls (n=898,454) and risk of violent crime was calculated. Additionally, we compared the odds of violent crime in unaffected half-siblings (n=15,534) and full siblings (n=33,516) of patients with the general population controls. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the contribution of substance abuse, sociodemographic factors, and previous criminality. In the second study, we studied a general population sample of twins (n=23,020) with continuous measures of depressive symptoms for risk of violent crime. FINDINGS: During a mean follow-up period of 3·2 years, 641 (3·7%) of the depressed men and 152 (0·5%) of the depressed women violently offended after diagnosis. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, the odds ratio of violent crime was 3·0 (95% CI 2·8–3·3) compared with the general population controls. The odds of violent crime in half-siblings (adjusted odds ratio 1·2 [95% CI 1·1–1·4]) and full siblings (1·5, 95% CI 1·3–1·6) were significantly increased, showing some familial confounding of the association between depression and violence. However, the odds increase remained significant in individuals with depression after adjustment for familial confounding, and in those without substance abuse comorbidity or a previous violent conviction (all p<0·0001). In the twin study, during the mean follow-up time of 5·4 years, 88 violent crimes were recorded. Depressive symptoms were associated with increased risk of violent crime and a sensitivity analysis identified little difference in risk estimate when all crimes (violent and non-violent) was the outcome. INTERPRETATION: Risk of violent crime was increased in individuals with depression after adjustment for familial, sociodemographic and individual factors in two longitudinal studies. Clinical guidelines should consider recommending violence risk assessment in certain subgroups with depression.
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