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Sökning: WFRF:(Forster Andrea)

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1.
  • Breznau, Nate, et al. (författare)
  • Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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2.
  • Bauer, Franz E., et al. (författare)
  • A new, faint population of X-ray transients
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 467:4, s. 4841-4857
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report on the detection of a remarkable new fast high-energy transient found in the Chandra Deep Field-South, robustly associated with a faint (mR = 27.5mag, zph ~2.2) host in the CANDELS survey. The X-ray event is comprised of 115+12 -11 net 0.3-7.0 keV counts, with a light curve characterized by an ~100 s rise time, a peak 0.3-10 keV flux of ~5 × 10-12 erg s-1 cm-2 and a power-law decay time slope of -1.53 ± 0.27. The average spectral slope is Γ = 1.43+0.23 -0.13, with no clear spectral variations. The X-ray and multiwavelength properties effectively rule out the vast majority of previously observed highenergy transients. A few theoretical possibilities remain: an 'orphan' X-ray afterglow from an off-axis short-duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) with weak optical emission, a low-luminosity GRB at high redshift with no prompt emission below ~20 keV rest frame, or a highly beamed tidal disruption event (TDE) involving an intermediate-mass black hole and a white dwarf with little variability. However, none of the above scenarios can completely explain all observed properties. Although large uncertainties exist, the implied rate of such events is comparable to those of orphan and low-luminosity GRBs as well as rare TDEs, implying the discovery of an untapped regime for a known transient class, or a new type of variable phenomena whose nature remains to be determined.
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