| 1. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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An integrative research framework to unravel the interplay of natural hazards and vulnerabilities
- 2018
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2328-4277. ; 6:3, s. 305-310
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectednessbetween physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction(DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of theworld, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue thatthese dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integratethe two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and thevulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework thatspecifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss theessential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action.
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| 2. |
- Fuentes-Andino, Diana, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 62:2, s. 232-245
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.
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| 3. |
- Fuentes-Andino, Diana, 1984-
(författare)
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Flood Hazard Assessment in Data-Scarce Basins : Use of alternative data and modelling techniques
- 2017
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Flooding is of great concern world-wide, causing damage to infrastructure, property and loss of life. Low-income countries, in particular, can be negatively affected by flood events due to their inherent vulnerabilities. Moreover, data to perform studies for flood risk management in low-income regions are often scarce or lacking sufficient quality.This thesis proposes new methodologies and explores the use of unconventional sources of information in flood hazard assessment in areas where the quantity or sufficient quality of traditional hydrometrical data are lacking. One method was developed to account for errors in spatially averaged rainfall, from a sparse rain-gauge network, used as input to a rainfall-runoff model. A spatially-averaged and event-dependent rainfall depth multiplier led to improvements of the hydrographs at calibration. And by using a distribution of the multiplier, identified from previous events in the catchment, improvement in predictions could also be obtained.A second method explored the possibility of reproducing an unmeasured extreme flood event using a combination of models, post-event data, precipitation and an uncertainty-analysis framework. This combination allowed the identification of likelihood-associated parameter sets from which the flood hazard map for the extreme event could be obtained.A third and fourth study made at the regional scale explored the value of catchment similarities, and the effects of climate on the hydrological response of catchments.Flood frequency curves were estimated for 36 basins, assumed ungauged, using regional information of short flow records, and local information about the frequency of the storm. In the second regional study, hydro-climatic information provided great value to constrain predictions of series of daily flow from a hydrological model.Previously described methods, used in combination with unconventional information within an uncertainty analysis, proven to be useful for flood hazard assessment at basins with data limitations. The explored data included: post-event measurements of an extreme flood event, hydro-climate regional information and local precipitation data. The methods presented in this thesis are expected to support development of hydrological studies underpinning flood-risk reduction in data-poor areas.
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