| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Beyan, Huriya, et al.
(författare)
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Guthrie card methylomics identifies temporally stable epialleles that are present at birth in humans
- 2012
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Ingår i: Genome Research. - : Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. - 1549-5469 .- 1088-9051. ; 22:11, s. 2138-2145
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major concern in common disease epigenomics is distinguishing causal from consequential epigenetic variation. One means of addressing this issue is to identify the temporal origins of epigenetic variants via longitudinal analyses. However, prospective birth-cohort studies are expensive and time consuming. Here, we report DNA methylomics of archived Guthrie cards for the retrospective longitudinal analyses of in-utero-derived DNA methylation variation. We first validate two methodologies for generating comprehensive DNA methylomes from Guthrie cards. Then, using an integrated epigenomic/genomic analysis of Guthrie cards and follow-up samplings, we identify interindividual DNA methylation variation that is present both at birth and 3 yr later. These findings suggest that disease-relevant epigenetic variation could be detected at birth, i.e., before overt clinical disease. Guthrie card methylomics offers a potentially powerful and cost-effective strategy for studying the dynamics of interindividual epigenomic variation in a range of common human diseases.
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| 5. |
- Campbell, Brittany B., et al.
(författare)
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Comprehensive Analysis of Hypermutation in Human Cancer
- 2017
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Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier BV. - 0092-8674 .- 1097-4172. ; 171:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2017 Elsevier Inc. We present an extensive assessment of mutation burden through sequencing analysis of > 81,000 tumors from pediatric and adult patients, including tumors with hypermutation caused by chemotherapy, carcinogens, or germline alterations. Hypermutation was detected in tumor types not previously associated with high mutation burden. Replication repair deficiency was a major contributing factor. We uncovered new driver mutations in the replication-repair-associated DNA polymerases and a distinct impact of microsatellite instability and replication repair deficiency on the scale of mutation load. Unbiased clustering, based on mutational context, revealed clinically relevant subgroups regardless of the tumors' tissue of origin, highlighting similarities in evolutionary dynamics leading to hypermutation. Mutagens, such as UV light, were implicated in unexpected cancers, including sarcomas and lung tumors. The order of mutational signatures identified previous treatment and germline replication repair deficiency, which improved management of patients and families. These data will inform tumor classification, genetic testing, and clinical trial design. A large-scale analysis of hypermutation in human cancers provides insights into tumor evolution dynamics and identifies clinically actionable mutation signatures.
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| 6. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Education and HIV incidence among young women: causation or selection?
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Several studies report that schooling protects against HIV infection in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of secondary school attendance on the probability of HIV incidence among young women aged 15-24, using panel data from rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Three approaches are used to distinguish causation from selection: instrumentation to identify the causal effect, a fixed effects model to control for constant unobserved factors and assessments of the bias from selection on unobserved variables. Although there is a strong negative association between secondary school attendance and HIV incidence, we are not able to find support for a causal effect. Thus, there is no evidence that interventions that increase secondary school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Our focus on school attendance, in contrast to studies that analyze school attainment, might explain the negative finding.
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| 7. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Education and HIV incidence among young women in KwaZulu-Natal: An association but no evidence of a causal protective effect
- 2019
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Ingår i: PloS one. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examine the relationship between school attendance and HIV incidence among young women in South Africa. Our aim is to distinguish a causal effect from correlation. Towards this end, we apply three methods to population-based longitudinal data for 2005-2012 in KwaZulu-Natal. After establishing a negative association, we first use a method that assesses the influence of omitted variables. We then estimate models with exclusion restrictions to remove endogeneity bias, and finally we estimate models that control for unobserved factors that remain constant over time. All the three methods have strengths and weaknesses, but none of them suggests a causal effect. Thus, interventions that increase school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would probably not mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Although the impact of school attendance could vary depending on context, unobserved variables are likely to be an important reason for the common finding of a negative association between school attendance and HIV incidence in the literature.
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| 8. |
- Galaup, Ariane, et al.
(författare)
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Protection Against Myocardial Infarction and No-Reflow Through Preservation of Vascular Integrity by Angiopoietin-Like 4
- 2012
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Ingår i: Circulation. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 125:1, s. 140-149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background-Increased permeability, predominantly controlled by endothelial junction stability, is an early event in the deterioration of vascular integrity in ischemic disorders. Hemorrhage, edema, and inflammation are the main features of reperfusion injuries, as observed in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Thus, preservation of vascular integrity is fundamental in ischemic heart disease. Angiopoietins are pivotal modulators of cell-cell junctions and vascular integrity. We hypothesized that hypoxic induction of angiopoietin-like protein 4 (ANGPTL4) might modulate vascular damage, infarct size, and no-reflow during AMI. Methods and Results-We showed that vascular permeability, hemorrhage, edema, inflammation, and infarct severity were increased in angptl4-deficient mice. We determined that decrease in vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2) and VE-cadherin expression and increase in Src kinase phosphorylation downstream of VEGFR2 were accentuated after ischemia-reperfusion in the coronary microcirculation of angptl4-deficient mice. Both events led to altered VEGFR2/VE-cadherin complexes and to disrupted adherens junctions in the endothelial cells of angptl4-deficient mice that correlated with increased no-reflow. In vivo injection of recombinant human ANGPTL4 protected VEGF-driven dissociation of the VEGFR2/VE-cadherin complex, reduced myocardial infarct size, and the extent of no-reflow in mice and rabbits. Conclusions-These data showed that ANGPTL4 might constitute a relevant target for therapeutic vasculoprotection aimed at counteracting the effects of VEGF, thus being crucial for preventing no-reflow and conferring secondary cardioprotection during AMI.
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| 9. |
- George, Gavin, et al.
(författare)
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Exposure to comprehensive sexuality education in schools in South Africa : the implications on the uptake of HIV testing services among HIV positive adolescent girls
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Ingår i: AIDS Care - Psychological and Socio-Medical Aspects of AIDS/HIV. - 0954-0121.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comprehensive sexuality education (CSE) is seen as a key instrument through which to affect behaviour and improve sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes amongst adolescents. However, few studies have to date evaluated key SRH outcomes following exposure to CSE within a school setting. This study estimates the association between CSE and HIV testing and HIV testing self-efficacy amongst HIV positive adolescent girls. Data were collected from a cross-sectional survey administered in four high HIV prevalence districts. Independent variables included exposure to CSE, with outcome variables measuring uptake of HIV testing in the 12 months preceding the survey, and HIV testing self-efficacy. The sample comprised 505 HIV positive adolescent girls aged 12–19. Attending CSE was associated with both; being more confident to get an HIV test (AOR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.47-4.06, p < 0.001) and having ever tested for HIV (AOR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.39-3.33, p < 0.001) while controlling for numerous variables. Results suggest CSE can play an important role in not only affecting HIV-related behaviours themselves, but also critical factors that affect HIV behaviours, including self-efficacy.
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| 10. |
- George, Gavin, et al.
(författare)
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Greater risk for more money: the economics of negotiating condom use amongst sex workers in South Africa
- 2019
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Ingår i: AIDS Care - Psychological and Socio-Medical Aspects of AIDS/HIV. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0954-0121 .- 1360-0451. ; 31:9, s. 1168-1171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. The economics of sex work and the effect on safe sex practices remain understudied. This research contributes to a better understanding of how economic opportunity and vulnerability place sex workers (SWs) at an increased risk of STI infection. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we investigated the role of economic incentives in determining condom use among SWs. The data reveals that SWs are on average, nearly doubling their rates for condomless sex. Our findings that SWs are engaging in condomless sex to increase their earnings, illustrates the point that the context in which they operate influences condom negotiation and consequently, increases risky sexual behaviour.
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