| 1. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Current understanding of groundwater recharge and groundwater drought in Sweden compared to countries with similar geology and climate
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 103:4, s. 323-345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, groundwater in Sweden has attracted media attention due to supply shortages caused by dry periods and low groundwater levels. About half of Swedish drinking water stems from groundwater. The small Swedish aquifers are highly dependent on frequent and sufficient recharge. Groundwater recharge forms the link between meteorological and groundwater drought and thus the main link between climate change and sustainable water supply. This study evaluated whether the current knowledge on groundwater recharge and groundwater drought is sufficient to mitigate the impacts of climate change. A review of international literature on groundwater recharge in regions with conditions similar to Sweden was performed. National literature was compared and links to international studies evaluated. A survey among Swedish groundwater experts complemented the study. Findings are that research on groundwater recharge has been scarce in Sweden over the last decades and Swedish experts seem to not have taken much notice of international literature. It is concluded that Sweden is not well prepared to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater resources, as the most crucial process linking climate to groundwater is not well understood. The study has a strong focus on Sweden, however, the results are also relevant for countries with similar geology and climate. One main conclusion is that groundwater recharge studies often remain unique, and thus hardly transferable and comparable. Two or more independent studies are rarely applied in parallel, verification based on direct groundwater observations is not common. This raises concerns about the reliability of climate change impact predictions on groundwater.
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| 2. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Similarity-based approaches in hydrogeology: proposal of a new concept for data-scarce groundwater resource characterization and prediction
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1435-0157 .- 1431-2174. ; 29:5, s. 1693-1709
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new concept is proposed for describing, analysing and predicting the dynamic behaviour of groundwater resources based on classification and similarity. The concept makes use of the ideas put forward by the “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) initiative in surface-water hydrology. One of the approaches developed in PUB uses the principle that similar catchments, exposed to similar weather conditions, will generate a similar discharge response at the catchment outlet. This way, models developed for well-observed catchments can be used to make predictions for ungauged catchments with similar properties (topography, land use, etc.). The concept proposed here applies the same idea to groundwater systems, with the goal to make predictions of the dynamic behaviour of groundwater in poorly observed systems using similarities to well-observed and understood systems. This paper gives an overview of the main ideas, the methodological background, the progress so far, and the challenges that the authors regard as most crucial for further development. One of the main goals of this article is thus to raise interest for this new concept within the groundwater community. There are a multitude of highly interesting aspects to investigate, and a community effort, as with PUB, is required. A second goal is to foster and exchange ideas between the groundwater and surface water research communities who, while often working on similar problems, have often missed the opportunity to learn from each other.
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| 3. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic visual analysis of groundwater hydrographs: potential benefits and challenges
- 2022
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Ingår i: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1431-2174 .- 1435-0157. ; 30, s. 359-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Visual analysis of time series in hydrology is frequently seen as a crucial step to becoming acquainted with the nature of the data, as well as detecting unexpected errors, biases, etc. Human eyes, in particular those of a trained expert, are well suited to recognize irregularities and distinct patterns. However, there are limits as to what the eye can resolve and process; moreover, visual analysis is by definition subjective and has low reproducibility. Visual inspection is frequently mentioned in publications, but rarely described in detail, even though it may have significantly affected decisions made in the process of performing the underlying study. This paper presents a visual analysis of groundwater hydrographs that has been performed in relation to attempts to classify groundwater time series as part of developing a new concept for prediction in data-scarce groundwater systems. Within this concept, determining the similarity of groundwater hydrographs is essential. As standard approaches for similarity analysis of groundwater hydrographs do not yet exist, different approaches were developed and tested. This provided the opportunity to carry out a comparison between visual analysis and formal, automated classification approaches. The presented visual classification was carried out on two sets of time series from central Europe and Fennoscandia. It is explained why and where visual classification can be beneficial but also where the limitations and challenges associated with the approach lie. It is concluded that systematic visual analysis of time series in hydrology, despite its subjectivity and low reproducibility, should receive much more attention.
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| 4. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 103:2, s. 103-31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change poses additional risks for natural and human systems including the hydrological cycle, leading to altered temporal and spatial variation of hydroclimatic conditions. This work assessed the current understanding of the dryness and wetness conditions in Sweden over the last two millenniums based on proxy and instrumental data, as well as climate model simulations and projections until the end of the twenty-first century. The assessment represents a summary of the existing literature concerning analysis of four selected indices for dry/wet conditions relating to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and soil moisture (SPEI, PDSI [including scPDSI], SPI, and AI). SPEI considers both precipitation and PET and can show hydroclimatic conditions at different time scales. Therefore, it was chosen to summarize the past and future changes. A focus is put on dry conditions, as drought has strong influences on groundwater which is an important freshwater resource for Sweden. The millennium historical perspective reveals that the current climate is relatively wet and the future would become even wetter as a general wetting trend started some 120 years ago. However, there have been and will be large variations of both dry and wet conditions on short time scales, especially on decadal and interannual time scales. Further, the changes since the 1950s show a regional pattern with most significant wetting in the north, a slightly overall wetting in the south but a drying in central-eastern part including the island of Gotland since 1981. This pattern is broadly consistent with climate model projections for the future.
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| 5. |
- Giese, Markus, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative hydrogeology – reference analysis of groundwater dynamics from neighbouring observation wells
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:10, s. 1685-1706
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater level fluctuations are caused by spatial and temporal superposition of processes within and outside the aquifer system. Most of the subsurface processes are usually observed on a small scale. Upscaling to the regional scale, as required for future climate change scenarios, is difficult due to data scarcity and increasing complexity. In contrast to the limited availability of system characteristics, high-resolution data records of groundwater hydrographs are more generally available. Exploiting the information contained in these records should thus be a priority for analysis of the chronical lack of data describing groundwater system characteristics. This study analyses the applicability of 63 indices derived from daily hydrographs to quantify different dynamics of groundwater levels in unconfined gravel aquifers from three groundwater regions (Bavaria, Germany). Based on the results of two different skill tests, the study aids index selection for different dynamic components of groundwater hydrographs.
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| 6. |
- Haaf, Ezra, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Data-Driven Estimation of Groundwater Level Time-Series at Unmonitored Sites Using Comparative Regional Analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 59:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new method is presented to efficiently estimate daily groundwater level time series at unmonitored sites by linking groundwater dynamics to local hydrogeological system controls. The proposed approach is based on the concept of comparative regional analysis, an approach widely used in surface water hydrology, but uncommon in hydrogeology. Using physiographic and climatic site descriptors, the method utilizes regression analysis to estimate cumulative frequency distributions of groundwater levels (groundwater head duration curves, HDC) at unmonitored locations. The HDC is then used to construct a groundwater hydrograph using time series from distance-weighted neighboring monitored (donor) locations. For estimating times series at unmonitored sites, in essence, spatio-temporal interpolation, stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and nearest neighbors are compared. The methods were applied to 10-year daily groundwater level time series at 157 sites in unconfined alluvial aquifers in Southern Germany. Models of HDCs were physically plausible and showed that physiographic and climatic controls on groundwater level fluctuations are nonlinear and dynamic, varying in significance from “wet” to “dry” aquifer conditions. XGB yielded a significantly higher predictive skill than nearest neighbor and MLR. However, donor site selection is of key importance. The study presents a novel approach for regionalization and infilling of groundwater level time series that also aids conceptual understanding of controls on groundwater dynamics, both central tasks for water resources managers.
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| 7. |
- Haaf, Ezra, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Physiographic and climatic controls on regional groundwater dynamics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 56:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The main goal of this study is to explore whether the ideas established by surface water hydrologists in the context of “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) can be useful in hydrogeology. The concrete question is whether it is possible to create predictive models for groundwater systems with no or few observations based on knowledge derived from similar groundwater systems which are well‐observed. To do so, this study analyses the relationship between temporal dynamics of groundwater levels and climatic and physiographic characteristics. The analysis is based on data from 341 wells in Southern Germany with ten‐year daily groundwater hydrographs. Observation wells are used in confined and unconfined sand and gravel aquifers from narrow mountainous valleys as well as more extensive lowland alluvial aquifers. Groundwater dynamics at each location are summarized with 46 indices describing features of groundwater hydrographs. Besides borehole log‐derived geologic information, local and regional morphologic characteristics as well as topography‐derived boundary and climatic descriptors were derived for each well. Regression relationships were established by mining the data for associations between dynamics and descriptors with forward stepwise regression at a confidence level >95%. The most important predictors are geology and boundary conditions and secondarily, climate, as well as some topographic features, such as regional convergence. The multiple regression models are in general agreement with process understanding linked to groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers. This systematic investigation suggests that statistical regionalization of groundwater dynamics in ungauged aquifers based on map‐derived physiographic and climatic controls may be feasible.
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| 8. |
- Nygren, Michelle, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in seasonality of groundwater level fluctuations in a temperate-cold climate transition zone
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 2589-9155. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In cold (i.e. boreal, subarctic, snowy) climate zones, dynamic groundwater storage is greatly affected by the timing and amount of snowmelt. With global warming, cold climates in the northern hemisphere will transition to temperate. As temperatures rise, the dominant type of precipitation will change from snow to rain in winter. Further, the growing season is prolonged. This has a direct impact on the aquifer recharge pattern. However, little is known about the effect of changing annual recharge regimes on groundwater storage. The present work deduces the impact of shifting climate zones on groundwater storage by evaluating the effect of climate seasonality on intra-annual hydraulic head fluctuations. The work compares intra-annual hydraulic head fluctuations in a temperate-cold climate transition zone (Fennoscandia) from two different periods (1980–1989, 2001–2010). This is done by associating rising vs. declining hydraulic heads with hydrometeorology. Due to the northwards migration of the temperate climate zone, there is a shift in seasonality between the two periods. This has a negative impact on groundwater levels, which are significantly lower in 2001–2010, particularly near the climate transition zone. The results demonstrate that increasing temperatures in cold climate regions may change the seasonality of groundwater recharge, by altering the main recharge period from being snowmelt-dominated (spring) to rain-dominated (winter). Additionally, this is connected to the duration of the growing season, which impedes groundwater recharge. The coupled effect of this on groundwater in the study area has led to a significant decrease in groundwater storage.
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| 9. |
- Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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Flood impact on Mainland Southeast Asia between 1985 and 2018 — The role of tropical cyclones
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 13:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods are disastrous natural hazards accused of human live losses. As a flood‐prone area, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has often been hit by floods, resulting in the highest fatality in the world. Despite the destructive flood impacts, how has flood occurrence changed over the past decades, and to what extent did floods affect the MSEA are not yet clear. Using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory large flood data archive, we aim to assess the trend of flood occurrence in the MSEA in 1985–2018, and quantify the associated impacts on humans. Particularly, the contribution of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall induced floods (TCFloods) is quantified, because of the frequent TC landfalls. Results show that (a) occurrence and maximum magnitude of floods by all causes (ALLFloods) significantly increased (p < .01), but not for TCFloods; (b) On average, TCFloods accounted for 24.6% occurrence of ALLFloods; (c) TCFloods caused higher mortality and displacement rate than ALLFloods did. As low flood protection standards in Cambodia and Myanmar is considered a reason for high flood‐induced mortalities, building higher flood protection standards should be taken as a priority for mitigating potential flood impacts. With quantifying flood occurrence and impacts, this study offers scientific understandings for better flood risk management.
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| 10. |
- Ehlers, Todd A., et al.
(författare)
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Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-8252. ; 234
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere are most active in the critical zone, a region extending from the tops of trees to the top of unweathered bedrock. Changes in one or more of these spheres can result in a cascade of changes throughout the system in ways that are often poorly understood. Here we investigate how past and present climate change have impacted permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. We do this by compiling existing climate, hydrologic, cryosphere, biosphere, and geologic studies documenting change over decadal to glacial-interglacial timescales and longer. Our emphasis is on showing present-day trends in environmental change and how plateau ecosystems have largely flourished under warmer and wetter periods in the geologic past. We identify two future pathways that could lead to either a favorable greening or unfavorable degradation and desiccation of plateau ecosystems. Both paths are plausible given the available evidence. We contend that the key to which pathway future generations experience lies in what, if any, human intervention measures are implemented. We conclude with suggested management strategies that can be implemented to facilitate a future greening of the Tibetan Plateau.
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