| 1. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 2. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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Deterring Dictatorship: Explaining Democratic Resilience since 1900
- 2020
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Democracy is under threat globally from democratically elected leaders engaging in erosion of media freedom, civil society, and the rule of law. What distinguishes democracies that prevail against the forces of autocratization? This article breaks new ground by conceptualizing democratic resilience as a two-stage process, whereby democracies first exhibit resilience by avoiding autocratization altogether and second, by avoiding democratic breakdown given that autocratization has occurred. To model this two-stage process, we introduce the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset tracking autocratization since 1900. These data demonstrate the extraordinary nature of the current wave of autocratization: Fifty-nine (61%) episodes of democratic regression in the ERT began after 1992. Since then, autocratization episodes have killed an unprecedented 36 democratic regimes. Using a selection-model, we simultaneously test for factors that make democracies more prone to experience democratic regression and, given this, factors that explain democratic breakdown. Results from the explanatory analysis suggest that constraints on the executive are positively associated with a reduced risk of autocratization. Once autocratization is ongoing, we find that a long history of democratic institutions, durable judicial constraints on the executive, and more democratic neighbours are factors that make democracy more likely to prevail.
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| 3. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process
- 2021
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Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 28:5, s. 885-907
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article introduces a novel conceptualization of democratic resilience - a two-stage process where democracies avoid democratic declines altogether or avert democratic breakdown given that such autocratization is ongoing. Drawing on the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, we find that democracies have had a high level of resilience to onset of autocratization since 1900. Nevertheless, democratic resilience has become substantially weaker since the end of the Cold War. Fifty-nine episodes of sustained and substantial declines in democratic practices have occurred since 1993, leading to the unprecedented breakdown of 36 democratic regimes. Ominously, we find that once autocratization begins, only one in five democracies manage to avert breakdown. We also analyse which factors are associated with each stage of democratic resilience. The results suggest that democracies are more resilient when strong judicial constraints on the executive are present and democratic institutions were strong in the past. Conversely and adding nuance to the literature, economic development is only associated with resilience to onset of autocratization, not to resilience against breakdown once autocratization has begun.
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| 4. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, 1989
(författare)
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How foreign pressure affects mass mobilization in favor of authoritarian regimes
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Journal of International Relations. - : SAGE Publications. - 1354-0661 .- 1460-3713. ; 27:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Authoritarian regimes are frequent targets of international pressure in the form of economic sanctions or threats thereof. Existing research shows that foreign interventions can carry several unintended consequences for politics and the economy in the targeted countries. One of the side effects of such interventions is boosting support for incumbent autocrats. Public demonstrations in support of embattled leaders are one aspect of this dynamic. This article investigates the link between foreign pressure and domestic mobilization in favor of ruling autocrats. It is argued that pressure simultaneously increases regime supporters' willingness to participate in rallies and the regime's demand to display and even overstate regime support. Foreign pressure facilitates mobilization as autocrats can fuel nationalist sentiments and frame foreign interventions as an attack on the nation as a whole. At the same time, rallies are a strategic tool to reduce political opportunities for the opposition and to signal resolve to the international community. Empirically, I conduct the first quantitative analysis that evidences the existence of a relationship between international pressure and mobilization in support of incumbent autocrats. Using monthly data on rally events in all authoritarian regimes between 2003 and 2015, I find that sanctions but also threats significantly increase pro-government mobilization. In addition, I show evidence for a moderating role of media freedom in the targeted state, highlighting the importance of how international events are portrayed in national news.
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| 5. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, et al.
(författare)
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In the Spotlight : Analyzing Sequential Attention Effects in Protest Reporting
- 2018
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Ingår i: Political Communication. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1058-4609 .- 1091-7675. ; 35:4, s. 587-611
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During waves of contention, international media attention can be of crucial importance for activists and protest participants. However, media attention is a scarce resource and the competition over news coverage is high. While some emphasize the agenda-setting power of news outlets and argue that receiving coverage is determined by factors outside the protest movement, others suggest a dynamic relationship between media attention and activism where social movement organizations are assumed to have some agency to make it to the news. In this paper, we contribute to the latter and analyze how protest can endogenously trigger more coverage. Building on insights from communication science, we argue that widely covered protests attract media attention and temporarily lower the selection threshold for subsequent incidents. Using fine-grained data on anti-regime protest in all authoritarian countries between 2003 and 2012, we find robust empirical evidence for this hypothesis. We also show that this effect becomes weaker and eventually disappears with increasing spatial and temporal distance from a highly salient event. These findings are important for research in contentious politics, since they allows us to gauge the extent to which protest activity on the ground may under certain circumstances be over-reported in the media.
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| 6. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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Mass Mobilization and Regime Change. Evidence From a New Measure of Mobilization for Democracy and Autocracy From 1900 to 2020
- 2022
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Gothenburg, Sweden : V-Dem Institute. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Mass mobilization is an important driver of political change. While some citizens organize collective action in favor of more democratic institutions, others take to the streets to support authoritarian leaders or non-democratic forms of governance. In this paper, we introduce latent measures of pro-democratic and pro-autocratic mass mobilization using expert assessments for 170 polities from 1900-2020. The data allows us to trace patterns in mass mobilization over time, across regions and regime types. We use the new data to systematically analyze the relationship between both types of mobilization and regime change. While we confirm the findings of the large literature on contentious democratic politics, our analysis of autocratic mobilization allows us to help understand the controversy in the literature on “bad” civil society. Our empirical analysis shows that mass mobilization in favor of autocracy negatively a˙ects democracy and reduces the likelihood of democratization. Our results suggest that the extant literature’s focus on mobilization generally was perhaps too blunt, and disaggregating the goals of the actors involved in contentious politics helps to understand how protest a˙ects regime change in a more nuanced fashion.
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| 7. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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Neue Entwicklungen und Herausforderungen bei der Kodierung von Ereignisdatensätzen
- 2018
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Ingår i: ZIB Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen. - : Nomos Verlag. - 0946-7165 .- 0946-7165. ; 25:1, s. 145-153
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coding decisions play a key role in the creation of quantitative datasets in the social sciences. Recent technological advances and the trend towards the increasing disaggregation of data entail new challenges for the coding process and for concept formation. Our contribution discusses the opportunities and risks that emerge from the increased availability of data and offers some guidelines on how to deal with the abundance (or paucity) of data in the coding process. In our view, technical tools can be put to best use in support of human coders and help to prepare and organize that process. Moreover, we emphasize the need for transparency when it comes to conceptually or empirically unclear cases.
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| 8. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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Regime Transformation From Below: Mobilization for Democracy and Autocracy From 1900 to 2021
- 2023
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Ingår i: Comparative Political Studies. - : SAGE Publications. - 0010-4140 .- 1552-3829. ; 56:12, s. 1858-1890
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mass mobilization (MM) is an important driver of political change. While some citizens organize in favor of more democratic institutions, others take to the streets to support an authoritarian status quo. This article introduces measures of pro-democratic and pro-autocratic MM using expert assessments for 179 polities from 1900–2021. The data allow us to trace patterns in MM over time, across regions and regime types. We use this new data to systematically analyze the relationship between both types of mobilization and regime change. We confirm the findings of the literature on contentious democratic politics, and our analysis of autocratic mobilization allows us to make sense of the controversy in the literature on “bad actors” in civil society. We show that MM in favor of autocracy negatively affects democracy, making a case for specifying the goals of the actors involved in contentious politics to more precisely understand their impact.
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| 9. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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State of the world 2020: autocratization turns viral
- 2021
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Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 28:6, s. 1053-1074
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article analyses the state of democracy in 2020. The world is still more democratic than it was in the 1970s and 1980s, but a trend of autocratization is ongoing and affecting 25 countries in 2020, home to 34% of the world's population. At the same time, the number of democratizing countries has dwindled by nearly half, reducing to 16 countries, home to a mere 4% of the global population. Freedom of expression, deliberation, rule of law and elections show the most substantial net declines in the last decade. A major change is that India, formerly the world's largest democracy, turned into an electoral autocracy. The V-Dem data suggests that direct effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on levels of liberal democracy were limited in 2020. Still, the longer-term consequences may be worse and must be monitored closely. Due to the pandemic and state restrictions on the freedom of assembly, mass mobilization declined to its lowest level in over a decade, yet the decline in pro-democracy protests in 2020 may well prove to be short-lived once the pandemic subdues.
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| 10. |
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