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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Lee, Crystal Man Ying, et al.
(författare)
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Comparing different definitions of prediabetes with subsequent risk of diabetes: an individual participant data meta-analysis involving 76 513 individuals and 8208 cases of incident diabetes.
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMJ open diabetes research & care. - : BMJ. - 2052-4897. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There are currently five widely used definition of prediabetes. We compared the ability of these to predict 5-year conversion to diabetes and investigated whether there were other cut-points identifying risk of progression to diabetes that may be more useful.We conducted an individual participant meta-analysis using longitudinal data included in the Obesity, Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Collaboration. Cox regression models were used to obtain study-specific HRs for incident diabetes associated with each prediabetes definition. Harrell's C-statistics were used to estimate how well each prediabetes definition discriminated 5-year risk of diabetes. Spline and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were used to identify alternative cut-points.Sixteen studies, with 76 513 participants and 8208 incident diabetes cases, were available. Compared with normoglycemia, current prediabetes definitions were associated with four to eight times higher diabetes risk (HRs (95% CIs): 3.78 (3.11 to 4.60) to 8.36 (4.88 to 14.33)) and all definitions discriminated 5-year diabetes risk with good accuracy (C-statistics 0.79-0.81). Cut-points identified through spline analysis were fasting plasma glucose (FPG) 5.1 mmol/L and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) 5.0% (31 mmol/mol) and cut-points identified through ROC analysis were FPG 5.6 mmol/L, 2-hour postload glucose 7.0 mmol/L and HbA1c 5.6% (38 mmol/mol).In terms of identifying individuals at greatest risk of developing diabetes within 5 years, using prediabetes definitions that have lower values produced non-significant gain. Therefore, deciding which definition to use will ultimately depend on the goal for identifying individuals at risk of diabetes.
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| 4. |
- Lee, Crystal Man Ying, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of relationships between four common anthropometric measures and incident diabetes
- 2017
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Ingår i: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8227 .- 1872-8227. ; 132, s. 36-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: First, to conduct a detailed exploration of the prospective relations between four commonly used anthropometric measures with incident diabetes and to examine their consistency across different population subgroups. Second, to compare the ability of each of the measures to predict five-year risk of diabetes. Methods: We conducted a meta- analysis of individual participant data on body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist- hip and waist- height ratio (WHtR) from the Obesity, Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Collaboration. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between a one standard deviation increment in each anthropometric measure and incident diabetes. Harrell's concordance statistic was used to test the predictive accuracy of each measure for diabetes risk at five years. Results: Twenty- one studies with 154,998 participants and 9342 cases of incident diabetes were available. Each of the measures had a positive association with incident diabetes. A one standard deviation increment in each of the measures was associated with 64- 80% higher diabetes risk. WC and WHtR more strongly associated with risk than BMI (ratio of hazard ratios: 0.95 [0.92,0.99] - 0.97 [0.95,0.98]) but there was no appreciable difference between the four measures in the predictive accuracy for diabetes at five years. Conclusions: Despite suggestions that abdominal measures of obesity have stronger associations with incident diabetes and better predictive accuracy than BMI, we found no overall advantage in any one measure at discriminating the risk of developing diabetes. Any of these measures would suffice to assist in primary diabetes prevention efforts.
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| 5. |
- Owen, Christopher G, et al.
(författare)
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Does initial breastfeeding lead to lower blood cholesterol in adult life? A quantitative review of the evidence.
- 2008
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 88:2, s. 305-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Earlier studies have suggested that infant feeding may program long-term changes in cholesterol metabolism. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine whether breastfeeding is associated with lower blood cholesterol concentrations in adulthood. DESIGN: The study consisted of a systematic review of published observational studies relating initial infant feeding status to blood cholesterol concentrations in adulthood (ie, aged >16 y). Data were available from 17 studies (17 498 subjects; 12 890 breastfed, 4608 formula-fed). Mean differences in total cholesterol concentrations (breastfed minus formula-fed) were pooled by using fixed-effect models. Effects of adjustment (for age at outcome, socioeconomic position, body mass index, and smoking status) and exclusion (of nonexclusive breast feeders) were examined. RESULTS: Mean total blood cholesterol was lower (P = 0.037) among those ever breastfed than among those fed formula milk (mean difference: -0.04 mmol/L; 95% CI: -0.08, 0.00 mmol/L). The difference in cholesterol between infant feeding groups was larger (P = 0.005) and more consistent in 7 studies that analyzed "exclusive" feeding patterns (-0.15 mmol/L; -0.23, -0.06 mmol/L) than in 10 studies that analyzed nonexclusive feeding patterns (-0.01 mmol/L; -0.06, 0.03 mmol/L). Adjustment for potential confounders including socioeconomic position, body mass index, and smoking status in adult life had minimal effect on these estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Initial breastfeeding (particularly when exclusive) may be associated with lower blood cholesterol concentrations in later life. Moves to reduce the cholesterol content of formula feeds below those of breast milk should be treated with caution.
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