| 1. |
- de la Croix, David, et al.
(författare)
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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden : 1750-2050
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of macroeconomics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0164-0704 .- 1873-152X. ; 31:1, s. 132-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper addresses two issues. To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past? Can information on historical patterns help to improve long-term forecasting of economic growth? We consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. The results indicate that the assumption of a common DGP can be warranted, at least back to 1870. Given the stability of the relationship between population and growth, we use the model to forecast income for the next 50 years. We compare our approach to a previous attempt to simulate the long-term Swedish growth path with an endogenous growth model. Encompassing tests show that each of the models contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.
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| 2. |
- de la Croix, David, et al.
(författare)
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Swedish Economic Growth and Education Since 1800.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Canadian Journal of Economics. - : Wiley. - 0008-4085 .- 1540-5982. ; 41:1, s. 166-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- De la Croix is also affiliated with CORE; Malmberg is also affiliated with the Department of Geography, Stockholm University. De la Croix acknowledges financial support from the Belgian French speaking community (Grant ARC 03/08-235 ‘New macroeconomic approaches to the development problem’) and the Belgian Federal Government (Grant PAI P6/07 ‘Economic policy and finance in the global economy: equilibrium analysis and social evaluation’). We are grateful to two referees, Fati Shadman, and participants at seminars at IRES, European Central Bank, PAA 2006 (Population Association of America), and International Symposium for Forecasters for useful comments on an earlier draft.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Lindh, Magnus, 1960, et al.
(författare)
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Response prediction and treatment tailoring for chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1 infection
- 2007
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Ingår i: J Clin Microbiol. - 0095-1137. ; 45:8, s. 2439-45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We monitored early viral response during the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with the aim of identifying predictors of treatment outcome. We studied 53 patients with genotype 1 infection who received 180 microg/week pegylated interferon alfa-2a and 1,000 or 1,200 mg/day ribavirin depending on body weight and serially assessed HCV RNA in serum, using the Cobas TaqMan assay. Thirty-one patients (58%) achieved sustained viral response (SVR). SVR was obtained in 100% (10/10) of patients with pretreatment viremia concentrations below 400,000 IU/ml, in 100% (14/14) of patients with more than 1.5 log reduction of HCV RNA after 4 days of treatment, and in 95% (22/23) of patients with a rate of decline in viremia higher than 0.70 log units/week during the second phase. Non-SVR was seen in all patients with a second-phase decline rate lower than 0.35 log units/week. Patients with slopes between 0.50 and 0.80 log units/week achieved SVR (4/4) unless the treatment dose was modified (3/3). We conclude that the second-phase slope appears to be an accurate and useful predictor of treatment response. On the basis of these findings, we propose a model of tailored treatment which takes into account the second-phase slope and the amount of HCV RNA after 21 days of treatment.
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| 6. |
- Lindh, Thomas, 1952-, et al.
(författare)
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Demographic perspectives in housing.
- 2012
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Ingår i: <em>The International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home</em>. - : Elsevier. - 9780080471631 - 9780080471716
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 7. |
- Lindh, Thomas, 1952-, et al.
(författare)
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Demography and housing demand : What can we learn from residential construction data?
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Population Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0933-1433 .- 1432-1475. ; 21:3, s. 521-539
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction, but there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Lindh, Thomas, 1952-, et al.
(författare)
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EU Economic Growth and the Age Structure of the Population
- 2009
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Ingår i: Economic Change and Restructuring. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-9414 .- 1574-0277. ; 42:3, s. 159-187
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We test the robustness of correlations between age structure and economic growth in EU15 countries by replicating a previous OECD study. A hump-shaped relation with the age structure is confirmed where increases in the dependent age group shares are associated with decreasing GDP growth rates. In addition we confirm that the peak of the hump is in the upper part of the working age population. Models estimated on data up to 1990 agree quite well when data for 15 more years are added. Sensitivity tests, instrumented regressions and addition of control variables do not change this conclusion. Thus, the age profile of correlations between age and economic growth is robust over time. This motivates a prospective analysis of future effects ageing will have on EU growth. The basic conclusion from this exercise is that ageing will be accompanied by stagnation in GDP growth, but at rather different time horizons.
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