| 1. |
- Wagen, Aaron Z, et al.
(författare)
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Life course, genetic, and neuropathological associations with brain age in the 1946 British Birth Cohort: a population-based study.
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Lancet. Healthy longevity. - 2666-7568. ; 3:9, s. e607-e616
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A neuroimaging-based biomarker termed the brain age is thought to reflect variability in the brain's ageing process and predict longevity. Using Insight 46, a unique narrow-age birth cohort, we aimed to examine potential drivers and correlates of brain age.Participants, born in a single week in 1946 in mainland Britain, have had 24 prospective waves of data collection to date, including MRI and amyloid PET imaging at approximately 70 years old. Using MRI data from a previously defined selection of this cohort, we derived brain-predicted age from an established machine-learning model (trained on 2001 healthy adults aged 18-90 years); subtracting this from chronological age (at time of assessment) gave the brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD). We tested associations with data from early life, midlife, and late life, as well as rates of MRI-derived brain atrophy.Between May 28, 2015, and Jan 10, 2018, 502 individuals were assessed as part of Insight 46. We included 456 participants (225 female), with a mean chronological age of 70·7 years (SD 0·7; range 69·2 to 71·9). The mean brain-predicted age was 67·9 years (8·2, 46·3 to 94·3). Female sex was associated with a 5·4-year (95% CI 4·1 to 6·8) younger brain-PAD than male sex. An increase in brain-PAD was associated with increased cardiovascular risk at age 36 years (β=2·3 [95% CI 1·5 to 3·0]) and 69 years (β=2·6 [1·9 to 3·3]); increased cerebrovascular disease burden (1·9 [1·3 to 2·6]); lower cognitive performance (-1·3 [-2·4 to -0·2]); and increased serum neurofilament light concentration (1·2 [0·6 to 1·9]). Higher brain-PAD was associated with future hippocampal atrophy over the subsequent 2 years (0·003 mL/year [0·000 to 0·006] per 5-year increment in brain-PAD). Early-life factors did not relate to brain-PAD. Combining 12 metrics in a hierarchical partitioning model explained 33% of the variance in brain-PAD.Brain-PAD was associated with cardiovascular risk, and imaging and biochemical markers of neurodegeneration. These findings support brain-PAD as an integrative summary metric of brain health, reflecting multiple contributions to pathological brain ageing, and which might have prognostic utility.Alzheimer's Research UK, Medical Research Council Dementia Platforms UK, Selfridges Group Foundation, Wolfson Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Brain Research UK, Alzheimer's Association.
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| 2. |
- Cazelles, Kevin, et al.
(författare)
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Homogenization of freshwater lakes : Recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 25:12, s. 4222-4233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale-dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from overexploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965-1982 and 2008-2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human-assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.
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| 3. |
- McGuire, A. David, et al.
(författare)
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Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:7, s. 1015-1037
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.
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| 4. |
- Xia, Jianyang, et al.
(författare)
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Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 122:2, s. 430-446
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246±6gCm-2yr-1), most models produced higher NPP (309±12gCm-2yr-1) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800gCm-2yr-1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.
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