| 1. |
- Cook, Edward R., et al.
(författare)
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Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 CE
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 41:11-12, s. 2957-2972
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800-1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850-1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler 'Little Ice Age' conditions (ca. 1350-1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.
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| 2. |
- Shi, Feng, et al.
(författare)
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A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium
- 2015
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 131:4, s. 663-674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.
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| 3. |
- Shi, Feng, et al.
(författare)
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Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 127:20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) plays a crucial role for ecosystems and societies in East Asia past, present, and future. However, substantial uncertainties remain regarding EASM variability on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales because of the short length of instrumental data in East Asia. This study extended the EASM circulation index in the modern meteorological studies to the paleoclimate over the past half-millennium (1470-1998 CE) to reconcile the understanding of the EASM variability in paleoclimate and modern meteorological studies. The EASM index is reconstructed based on the common signal from the three main types of the proxy records (the tree rings, speleothems, and historical documentary data) related to EASM. The reconstructed EASM index captures the simultaneous changes of the "Meiyu precipitation" and the southwesterly anomalies in South China on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales, which is a dynamic pattern visible and well-documented in the modern meteorology. Analysis of the reconstructed EASM index suggests that the interdecadal to multidecadal EASM variability is closely associated with the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern, which acts as a bridge between the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. It also indicates that the EASM variability over the recent 30 years (1992-2021 CE) falls within the range of natural variability over the past half-millennium.
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| 4. |
- Shi, Feng, et al.
(författare)
-
Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 127:20
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) plays a crucial role for ecosystems and societies in East Asia past, present, and future. However, substantial uncertainties remain regarding EASM variability on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales because of the short length of instrumental data in East Asia. This study extended the EASM circulation index in the modern meteorological studies to the paleoclimate over the past half-millennium (1470–1998 CE) to reconcile the understanding of the EASM variability in paleoclimate and modern meteorological studies. The EASM index is reconstructed based on the common signal from the three main types of the proxy records (the tree rings, speleothems, and historical documentary data) related to EASM. The reconstructed EASM index captures the simultaneous changes of the “Meiyu precipitation” and the southwesterly anomalies in South China on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales, which is a dynamic pattern visible and well-documented in the modern meteorology. Analysis of the reconstructed EASM index suggests that the interdecadal to multidecadal EASM variability is closely associated with the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern, which acts as a bridge between the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. It also indicates that the EASM variability over the recent 30 years (1992–2021 CE) falls within the range of natural variability over the past half-millennium.
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