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- Pantazis, N, et al.
(författare)
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Determining the likely place of HIV acquisition for migrants in Europe combining subject-specific information and biomarkers data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Statistical methods in medical research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0334 .- 0962-2802. ; 28:7, s. 1979-1997
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In most HIV-positive individuals, infection time is only known to lie between the time an individual started being at risk for HIV and diagnosis time. However, a more accurate estimate of infection time is very important in certain cases. For example, one of the objectives of the Advancing Migrant Access to Health Services in Europe (aMASE) study was to determine if HIV-positive migrants, diagnosed in Europe, were infected pre- or post-migration. We propose a method to derive subject-specific estimates of unknown infection times using information from HIV biomarkers’ measurements, demographic, clinical, and behavioral data. We assume that CD4 cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load trends after HIV infection follow a bivariate linear mixed model. Using post-diagnosis CD4 and viral load measurements and applying the Bayes’ rule, we derived the posterior distribution of the HIV infection time, whereas the prior distribution was informed by AIDS status at diagnosis and behavioral data. Parameters of the CD4–viral load and time-to-AIDS models were estimated using data from a large study of individuals with known HIV infection times (CASCADE). Simulations showed substantial predictive ability (e.g. 84% of the infections were correctly classified as pre- or post-migration). Application to the aMASE study ( n = 2009) showed that 47% of African migrants and 67% to 72% of migrants from other regions were most likely infected post-migration. Applying a Bayesian method based on bivariate modeling of CD4 and viral load, and subject-specific information, we found that the majority of HIV-positive migrants in aMASE were most likely infected after their migration to Europe.
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| 2. |
- Vidal, R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Colonization factors among enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli isolates from children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea and from matched controls in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS)
- 2019
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Ingår i: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2735. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) encoding heat-stable enterotoxin (ST) alone or with heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in developing country children. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) identified ETEC encoding ST among the top four enteropathogens. Since the GEMS objective was to provide evidence to guide development and implementation of enteric vaccines and other interventions to diminish diarrheal disease morbidity and mortality, we examined colonization factor (CF) prevalence among ETEC isolates from children age <5 years with MSD and from matched controls in four African and three Asian sites. We also assessed strength of association of specific CFs with MSD. Methodology/Principal findings MSD cases enrolled at healthcare facilities over three years and matched controls were tested in a standardized manner for many enteropathogens. To identify ETEC, three E. coli colonies per child were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect genes encoding LT, ST; confirmed ETEC were examined by PCR for major CFs (Colonization Factor Antigen I [CFA/I] or Coli Surface [CS] antigens CS1-CS6) and minor CFs (CS7, CS12, CS13, CS14, CS17, CS18, CS19, CS20, CS21, CS30). ETEC from 806 cases had a single toxin/CF profile in three tested strains per child. Major CFs, components of multiple ETEC vaccine candidates, were detected in 66.0% of LT/ST and ST-only cases and were associated with MSD versus matched controls by conditional logistic regression (p0.006); major CFs detected in only 25.0% of LT-only cases weren't associated with MSD. ETEC encoding exclusively CS14, identified among 19.9% of 291 ST-only and 1.5% of 259 LT/ST strains, were associated with MSD (p = 0.0011). No other minor CF exhibited prevalence 5% and significant association with MSD. Conclusions/Significance Major CF-based efficacious ETEC vaccines could potentially prevent up to 66% of pediatric MSD cases due to ST-encoding ETEC in developing countries; adding CS14 extends coverage to similar to 77%. Author summary Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) were found to be one of the four most consistently important agents that cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea among children <5 years of age in a large case-control study, the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, performed in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa and three in South Asia. ETEC attach to the lining of the human small intestine by means of protein colonization factors (CFs), after which bacterial toxins stimulate intestinal secretion resulting in diarrhea. Moderate-to-severe diarrhea in young children in developing countries can lead to malnutrition and death. Vaccines are being developed to prevent ETEC diarrhea and its consequences. Several ETEC vaccines aim to stimulate antibodies (protective proteins) that will bind CFs and prevent the bacteria from attaching to intestinal cells, which should, in turn, prevent ETEC diarrhea. Different types of CFs exist. To guide the development of vaccines intending to provide broad protection against ETEC, one must know the frequency with which the different major CFs are produced by ETEC. This paper reports an extensive systematic survey of ETEC CFs and provides helpful information to guide the development of ETEC vaccines.
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