| 1. |
- Arnal, Louise, et al.
(författare)
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Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 22:4, s. 2057-2072
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate-model-based seasonal streamflow forecasting.
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| 2. |
- Beven, Keith J., et al.
(författare)
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Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface
- 2015
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Ingår i: SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1674-7313 .- 1869-1897. ; 58:1, s. 25-35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future.
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| 3. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Borderless Heat Hazards With Bordered Impacts
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2328-4277. ; 9:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity due to climate change. They are associated with high mortality rates and cross-sectional impacts including a reduction in crop yield and power outages. Here we demonstrate that there are large deficiencies in reporting of heatwave impacts in international disasters databases, international organization reports, and climate bulletins. We characterize the distribution of heat stress across the world focusing on August in the Northern Hemisphere, when notably heatwaves have taken place (i.e., 2003, 2010, and 2020) for the last 20 years using the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis of the Universal Thermal Comfort Index and establish heat stress has grown larger in extent, more so during a heatwave. Comparison of heat stress against the emergency events impacts database and climate reports reveals underreporting of heatwave-related impacts. This work suggests an internationally agreed protocol should be put in place for impact reporting by organizations and national government, facilitating implementation of preparedness measures, and early warning systems.
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| 4. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Heatwaves : An invisible risk in UK policy and research
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Policy. - : Elsevier. - 1462-9011 .- 1873-6416. ; 116, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2019, a heatwave - an unusual extended period of hot weather - broke the UK's highest recorded temperature of 38.7 degrees C set in 2003. Of concern is that for summer 2019, this resulted in 892 excess deaths. With the intensity and frequency of UK heatwaves projected to increase, and summer temperatures predicted to be 5 degrees C hotter by 2070, urgent action is needed to prepare for, and adapt to, the changes now and to come. Yet it remains unclear what actions are needed and by whom. In response, a systematic literature review of UK heatwaves peer reviewed publications, inclusive of keyword criteria (total papers returned = 183), was conducted to understand what lessons have been learnt and what needs to happen next. Our research shows that heatwaves remain largely an invisible risk in the UK. Communication over what UK residents should do, the support needed to make changes, and their capacity to enact those changes, is often lacking. In turn, there is an inherent bias where research focuses too narrowly on the health and building sectors over other critical sectors, such as agriculture. An increased amount of action and leadership is therefore necessary from the UK government to address this.
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| 5. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Thermofeel : A python thermal comfort indices library
- 2022
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Ingår i: SoftwareX. - : Elsevier. - 2352-7110. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here the development of the python library thermofeel is described. thermofeel was developed so that prominent internationally used thermal indices (i.e. Universal Thermal Climate Index and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) could be implemented into operational weather forecasting systems (i.e. the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) whilst also adhering to open research practices. This library will be of benefit to many sectors including meteorology, sport, health and social care, hygiene, agriculture and building. In addition, it could be used in heat early warning systems which, with the right preparedness measures, has the potential to save lives from thermal extremes.
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| 6. |
- Brimicombe, Chloe, et al.
(författare)
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Wet Bulb Globe Temperature : Indicating Extreme Heat Risk on a Global Grid
- 2023
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Ingår i: GeoHealth. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2471-1403. ; 7:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is an international standard heat index used by the health, industrial, sports, and climate sectors to assess thermal comfort during heat extremes. Observations of its components, the globe and the wet bulb temperature (WBT), are however sparse. Therefore WBGT is difficult to derive, making it common to rely on approximations, such as the ones developed by Liljegren et al. and by the American College of Sports Medicine (WBGT(ACSM87)). In this study, a global data set is created by implementing an updated WBGT method using ECMWF ERA5 gridded meteorological variables and is evaluated against existing WBGT methods. The new method, WBGT(Brimicombe), uses globe temperature calculated using mean radiant temperature and is found to be accurate in comparison to WBGT(Liljegren) across three heatwave case studies. In addition, it is found that WBGT(ACSM87) is not an adequate approximation of WBGT. Our new method is a candidate for a global forecasting early warning system.
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| 7. |
- Di Napoli, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)
- 2018
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : SPRINGER. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 62:7, s. 1155-1165
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 A degrees C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 A degrees C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.
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| 8. |
- Di Napoli, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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ERA5-HEAT : A global gridded historical dataset of human thermal comfort indices from climate reanalysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geoscience Data Journal. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2049-6060. ; 8:1, s. 2-10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mean radiant temperature (MRT) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are widely used as human biometeorology parameters to assess the linkages between outdoor environment and human well-being. Historically computed from meteorological station measurements, we here present ERA5-HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT), the first historical dataset of MRT and UTCI as spatially gridded records at the global scale. Derived using climate variables from ERA5, a quality-controlled reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ERA5-HEAT consists of hourly gridded maps of MRT and UTCI at 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. It currently spans from 1979 to present, and it will be extended in time as updates of ERA5 are made available. ERA5-HEAT provides two streams, a consolidated and an intermediate one, that are released at 2 or 3 months and 5 days behind real time, respectively. Data are publicly and freely available for download at the Climate Data Store which has been developed as part of C3S. Being the only existing global historical gridded time series of MRT and UTCI to date, ERA5-HEAT is aimed at a wide range of end users, from scientists to policymakers, with an interest in environment-health applications at any spatial and temporal scale.
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| 9. |
- Di Napoli, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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Verification of Heat Stress Thresholds for a Health-Based Heat-Wave Definition
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. - : AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. - 1558-8424 .- 1558-8432. ; 58:6, s. 1177-1194
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Heat waves represent a threat to human health and excess mortality is one of the associated negative effects. A health-based definition for heat waves is therefore relevant, especially for early warning purposes, and it is here investigated via the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The UTCI is a bioclimate index elaborated via an advanced model of human thermoregulation that estimates the thermal stress induced by air temperature, wind speed, moisture, and radiation on the human physiology. Using France as a test bed, the UTCI was computed from meteorological reanalysis data to assess the thermal stress conditions associated with heat-attributable excess mortality in five cities. UTCI values at different climatological percentiles were defined and evaluated in their ability to identify periods of excess mortality (PEMs) over 24 years. Using verification metrics such as the probability of detection (POD), the false alarm ratio (FAR), and the frequency bias (FB), daily minimum and maximum heat stress levels equal to or above corresponding UTCI 95th percentiles (15 degrees +/- 2 degrees C and 34.5 degrees +/- 1.5 degrees C, respectively) for 3 consecutive days are demonstrated to correlate to PEMs with the highest sensitivity and specificity (0.69 <= POD <= 1, 0.19 <= FAR <= 0.46, 1 <= FB <= 1.48) than minimum, maximum, and mean heat stress level singularly and other bioclimatological percentiles. This finding confirms the detrimental effect of prolonged, unusually high heat stress at day- and nighttime and suggests the UTCI 95th percentile as a health-meaningful threshold for a potential heat-health watch warning system.
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| 10. |
- Emerton, Rebecca, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system : G1oFAS-Seasonal v1.0
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:8, s. 3327-3346
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications, including disaster risk reduction initiatives. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance, but seasonal forecasts for hydrological variables at large or global scales are few and far between. Here, we present the first operational global-scale seasonal hydrometeorological forecasting system: G1oFAS-Seasonal. Developed as an extension of the Global Flood Awareness System (G1oFAS), G1oFAS-Seasonal couples seasonal meteorological forecasts from ECMWF with a hydrological model to provide openly available probabilistic forecasts of river flow out to 4 months ahead for the global river network. This system has potential benefits not only for disaster risk reduction through early awareness of floods and droughts, but also for water-related sectors such as agriculture and water resources management, in particular for regions where no other forecasting system exists. We describe the key hydrometeorological components and computational framework of G1oFAS-Seasonal, alongside the forecast products available, before discussing initial evaluation results and next steps.
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