| 1. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
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Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 5. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
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| 6. |
- Petroff, E., et al.
(författare)
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A polarized fast radio burst at low Galactic latitude
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford Academic. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 469:4, s. 4465-4482
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the discovery of a new fast radio burst (FRB), FRB 150215, with the Parkes radio telescope on 2015 February 15. The burst was detected in real time with a dispersion measure (DM) of 1105.6 +/- 0.8 pc cm(-3), a pulse duration of 2.8(-0.5)(+1.2) ms, and a measured peak flux density assuming that the burst was at beam centre of 0.7(-0.1)(+0.2) Jy. The FRB originated at a Galactic longitude and latitude of 24.66 degrees, 5.28 degrees and 25 degrees away from the Galactic Center. The burst was found to be 43 +/- 5 per cent linearly polarized with a rotation measure (RM) in the range -9 < RM < 12 rad m(-2) (95 per cent confidence level), consistent with zero. The burst was followed up with 11 telescopes to search for radio, optical, X-ray, gamma-ray and neutrino emission. Neither transient nor variable emission was found to be associated with the burst and no repeat pulses have been observed in 17.25 h of observing. The sightline to the burst is close to the Galactic plane and the observed physical properties of FRB 150215 demonstrate the existence of sight lines of anomalously low RM for a given electron column density. The Galactic RM foreground may approach a null value due to magnetic field reversals along the line of sight, a decreased total electron column density from the Milky Way, or some combination of these effects. A lower Galactic DM contribution might explain why this burst was detectable whereas previous searches at low latitude have had lower detection rates than those out of the plane.
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| 7. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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HESS observations of RX J1713.7-3946 with improved angular and spectral resolution : Evidence for gamma-ray emission extending beyond the X-ray emitting shell
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 612
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Supernova remnants exhibit shock fronts (shells) that can accelerate charged particles up to very high energies. In the past decade, measurements of a handful of shell-type supernova remnants in very high-energy gamma rays have provided unique insights into the acceleration process. Among those objects, RX J1713.7-3946 (also known as G347.3-0.5) has the largest surface brightness, allowing us in the past to perform the most comprehensive study of morphology and spatially resolved spectra of any such very high-energy gamma-ray source. Here we present extensive new H.E.S.S. measurements of RX J1713.7-3946, almost doubling the observation time compared to our previous publication. Combined with new improved analysis tools, the previous sensitivity is more than doubled. The H.E.S.S. angular resolution of 0.048 degrees (0.036 degrees above 2 TeV) is unprecedented in gamma-ray astronomy and probes physical scales of 0.8 (0.6) parsec at the remnant's location. The new H. E. S. S. image of RX J1713.7-3946 allows us to reveal clear morphological di ff erences between X-rays and gamma rays. In particular, for the outer edge of the brightest shell region, we find the first ever indication for particles in the process of leaving the acceleration shock region. By studying the broadband energy spectrum, we furthermore extract properties of the parent particle populations, providing new input to the discussion of the leptonic or hadronic nature of the gamma-ray emission mechanism.
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| 10. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
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Characterizing the γ-ray long-term variability of PKS2155 304 with HESS and Fermi-LAT
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : The European Southern Observatory. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 598
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studying the temporal variability of BL Lac objects at the highest energies provides unique insights into the extreme physical processes occurring in relativistic jets and in the vicinity of super-massive black holes. To this end, the long-term variability of the BL Lac object PKS 2155-304 is analyzed in the high (HE, 100MeV < E < 300 GeV) and very high energy (VHE, E > 200 GeV) gamma-ray domain. Over the course of similar to 9 yr of H. E. S. S. observations the VHE light curve in the quiescent state is consistent with a log-normal behavior. The VHE variability in this state is well described by flicker noise (power-spectral-density index βVHE = 1 .10+ 0.10-0,13) on timescales larger than one day. An analysis of similar to 5.5 yr of HE Fermi-LAT data gives consistent results (βHE = 1 .20+ 0.21-0.23, on timescales larger than 10 days) compatible with the VHE findings. The HE and VHE power spectral densities show a scale invariance across the probed time ranges. A direct linear correlation between the VHE and HE fluxes could neither be excluded nor firmly established. These long-term-variability properties are discussed and compared to the red noise behavior (beta similar to 2) seen on shorter timescales during VHE-flaring states. The difference in power spectral noise behavior at VHE energies during quiescent and flaring states provides evidence that these states are influenced by different physical processes, while the compatibility of the HE and VHE long-term results is suggestive of a common physical link as it might be introduced by an underlying jet-disk connection.
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