| 1. |
- Bouyoucef, S E, et al.
(författare)
-
Poster Session 2 : Monday 4 May 2015, 08
- 2015
-
Ingår i: European Heart Journal Cardiovascular Imaging. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-2404 .- 2047-2412. ; 16 Suppl 1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 2. |
- Bellouin, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 58:1
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6Wm(-2), or -2.0 to -0.4Wm(-2) with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds. Plain Language Summary Human activities emit into the atmosphere small liquid and solid particles called aerosols. Those aerosols change the energy budget of the Earth and trigger climate changes, by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and playing important roles in the formation of cloud droplets and ice crystals. But because aerosols are much more varied in their chemical composition and much more heterogeneous in their spatial and temporal distributions than greenhouse gases, their perturbation to the energy budget, called radiative forcing, is much more uncertain. This review uses traceable and arguable lines of evidence, supported by aerosol studies published over the past 40 years, to quantify that uncertainty. It finds that there are two chances out of three that aerosols from human activities have increased scattering and absorption of solar radiation by 14% to 29% and cloud droplet number concentration by 5 to 17% in the period 2005-2015 compared to the year 1850. Those increases exert a radiative forcing that offsets between a fifth and a half of the radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. The degree to which human activities affect natural aerosol levels, and the response of clouds, and especially ice clouds, to aerosol perturbations remain particularly uncertain.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Possner, Anna, et al.
(författare)
-
Cloud response and feedback processes in stratiform mixed-phase clouds perturbed by ship exhaust
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 44:4, s. 1964-1972
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Stratiform mixed-phase clouds (MPCs), which contain both supercooled liquid and ice, play a key role in the energy balance of the Arctic and are a major contributor to surface precipitation. As Arctic shipping is projected to increase with climate change, these clouds may frequently be exposed to local aerosol perturbations of up to 15,000 cm(-3). Yet little consensus exists within the community regarding the key feedback mechanisms induced in MPCs perturbed by ship exhaust, or aerosol in general. Here we show that many known processes identified in the warm-phase stratocumulus regime can be extrapolated to the MPC regime. However, their effect may be compensated, or even undermined, by the following two most relevant processes unique to the MPC regime: (i) increased cloud glaciation via immersion freezing due to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) induced cloud top radiative cooling and (ii) the continued cycling of ice nucleating particles (INPs) through the cloud and subcloud layer.
|
|
| 7. |
- Stevens, Robin G., et al.
(författare)
-
A model intercomparison of CCN-limited tenuous clouds in the high Arctic
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 18:15, s. 11041-11071
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic ( > 80 degrees N) clouds observed during the 2008 Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) campaign, when observed cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations fell below 1 cm(-3). Previous analyses have suggested that at these low CCN concentrations the liquid water content (LWC) and radiative properties of the clouds are determined primarily by the CCN concentrations, conditions that have previously been referred to as the tenuous cloud regime. The intercomparison includes results from three large eddy simulation models (UCLALES-SALSA, COSMO-LES, and MIMICA) and three numerical weather prediction models (COSMO-NWP, WRF, and UM-CASIM). We test the sensitivities of the model results to different treatments of cloud droplet activation, including prescribed cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs) and diagnostic CCN activation based on either fixed aerosol concentrations or prognostic aerosol with in-cloud processing. There remains considerable diversity even in experiments with prescribed CDNCs and prescribed ice crystal number concentrations (ICNC). The sensitivity of mixed-phase Arctic cloud properties to changes in CDNC depends on the representation of the cloud droplet size distribution within each model, which impacts autoconversion rates. Our results therefore suggest that properly estimating aerosol-cloud interactions requires an appropriate treatment of the cloud droplet size distribution within models, as well as in situ observations of hydrometeor size distributions to constrain them. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the liquid water content of these clouds is CCN limited. For the observed meteorological conditions, the cloud generally did not collapse when the CCN concentration was held constant at the relatively high CCN concentrations measured during the cloudy period, but the cloud thins or collapses as the CCN concentration is reduced. The CCN concentration at which collapse occurs varies substantially between models. Only one model predicts complete dissipation of the cloud due to glaciation, and this occurs only for the largest prescribed ICNC tested in this study. Global and regional models with either prescribed CDNCs or prescribed aerosol concentrations would not reproduce these dissipation events. Additionally, future increases in Arctic aerosol concentrations would be expected to decrease the frequency of occurrence of such cloud dissipation events, with implications for the radiative balance at the surface. Our results also show that cooling of the sea-ice surface following cloud dissipation increases atmospheric stability near the surface, further suppressing cloud formation. Therefore, this suggests that linkages between aerosol and clouds, as well as linkages between clouds, surface temperatures, and atmospheric stability need to be considered for weather and climate predictions in this region.
|
|
