| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Krys, K, et al.
(author)
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Happiness Maximization Is a WEIRD Way of Living
- 2024
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In: Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science. - 1745-6924. ; , s. 17456916231208367-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 3. |
- Veer, IM, et al.
(author)
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Psycho-social factors associated with mental resilience in the Corona lockdown
- 2021
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In: Translational psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2158-3188. ; 11:1, s. 67-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is not only a threat to physical health but is also having severe impacts on mental health. Although increases in stress-related symptomatology and other adverse psycho-social outcomes, as well as their most important risk factors have been described, hardly anything is known about potential protective factors. Resilience refers to the maintenance of mental health despite adversity. To gain mechanistic insights about the relationship between described psycho-social resilience factors and resilience specifically in the current crisis, we assessed resilience factors, exposure to Corona crisis-specific and general stressors, as well as internalizing symptoms in a cross-sectional online survey conducted in 24 languages during the most intense phase of the lockdown in Europe (22 March to 19 April) in a convenience sample of N = 15,970 adults. Resilience, as an outcome, was conceptualized as good mental health despite stressor exposure and measured as the inverse residual between actual and predicted symptom total score. Preregistered hypotheses (osf.io/r6btn) were tested with multiple regression models and mediation analyses. Results confirmed our primary hypothesis that positive appraisal style (PAS) is positively associated with resilience (p < 0.0001). The resilience factor PAS also partly mediated the positive association between perceived social support and resilience, and its association with resilience was in turn partly mediated by the ability to easily recover from stress (both p < 0.0001). In comparison with other resilience factors, good stress response recovery and positive appraisal specifically of the consequences of the Corona crisis were the strongest factors. Preregistered exploratory subgroup analyses (osf.io/thka9) showed that all tested resilience factors generalize across major socio-demographic categories. This research identifies modifiable protective factors that can be targeted by public mental health efforts in this and in future pandemics.
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| 6. |
- Seglem, KB, et al.
(author)
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A Life Course Study of Genetic and Environmental Influences on Work Incapacity
- 2020
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In: Twin research and human genetics : the official journal of the International Society for Twin Studies. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 1832-4274. ; 23:1, s. 16-22
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Work incapacity is a major public health challenge and an economic burden to both society and individuals. Understanding the underlying causes is becoming ever more relevant as many countries face an aging workforce. We examined stability and change in genetic and environmental factors influencing work incapacity from age 18 until retirement, and sex differences in these effects. The large population-based sample comprised information from 28,759 twins followed for up to 23 years combined with high-quality national registry data. We measured work incapacity as the total proportion of potential workdays lost due to sickness absence, rehabilitation and disability benefits. Structural equation modeling with twin data indicated moderate genetic influences on work incapacity throughout life in both men and women, with a high degree of genetic stability from young to old adulthood. Environmental influences were mainly age-specific. Our results indicate that largely the same genetic factors influence individual differences in work incapacity throughout young, middle and older adulthood, despite major differences in degree of work incapacity and probable underlying medical causes.
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| 8. |
- Valle, A. K., et al.
(author)
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Social class, gender and psychosocial predictors for early sexual debut among 16 year olds in Oslo
- 2005
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In: Eur J Public Health. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1101-1262. ; 15:2, s. 185-94
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Variations in early sexual debut among 16 year olds were investigated by social level variables, parental occupation, gender, ethnicity, family structure, family functioning, and individual level variables, future aspirations, academic and social self-perception, and depressed moods. METHODS: The variations in sexual debut were investigated by examining proportions of 16 year olds reporting their first intercourse before age 16. The data were collected by self-reporting questionnaires administered to in-school-youth, in Oslo. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test for associations. Gender interactions with all variables were tested. RESULTS: Overall, 25% reported early debut. Independent effect of social class on differences in proportions in early sexual debut were found. Gender interaction with social class, ethnicity and academic self-perception as they associate to proportions having had early sexual debut, were found. For girls the pattern of social class differences was linear and the highest proportions were found among working classes. For boys the pattern was U-shaped and upper managerial and manual working class youth had similar, higher proportions of early debutants. High scores of parental monitoring, future aspirations and academic self-concept and low scores of depressed moods, are protective factors. While high social self-perception is positively associated with early debut for both genders. CONCLUSION: Early sexual debut varies according to social class, following gender-specific patterns, among 16 year olds in Oslo. The negative association between early debut and academic self-perception are for boys less influenced by other social and individual level factors, than for girls.
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