| 1. |
- Kim, HyeJin, et al.
(författare)
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Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature - Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.
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| 2. |
- Biggs, Reinette, et al.
(författare)
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Social-ecological change : insights from the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 18:1, s. 447-468
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Social-ecological systems (SES) research has emerged as an important area of sustainability science, informing and supporting pressing issues of transformation towards more sustainable, just and equitable futures. To date, much SES research has been done in or from the Global North, where the challenges and contexts for supporting sustainability transformations are substantially different from the Global South. This paper synthesises emerging insights on SES dynamics that can inform actions and advance research to support sustainability transformations specifically in the southern African context. The paper draws on work linked to members of the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (SAPECS), a leading SES research network in the region, synthesizing key insights with respect to the five core themes of SAPECS: (i) transdisciplinary and engaged research, (ii) ecosystem services and human well-being, (iii) governance institutions and management practices, (iv) spatial relationships and cross-scale connections, and (v) regime shifts, traps and transformations. For each theme, we focus on insights that are particularly novel, interesting or important in the southern African context, and reflect on key research gaps and emerging frontiers for SES research in the region going forward. Such place-based insights are important for understanding the variation in SES dynamics around the world, and are crucial for informing a context-sensitive global agenda to foster sustainability transformations at local to global scales.
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| 3. |
- Biggs, Reinette, et al.
(författare)
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The Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society : an emergent community of practice
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ecosystems and People. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2639-5908 .- 2639-5916. ; 19:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainability-focused research networks and communities of practice have emerged as a key response and strategy to build capacity and knowledge to support transformation towards more sustainable, just and equitable futures. This paper synthesises insights from the development of a community of practice on social-ecological systems (SES) research in southern Africa over the past decade, linked to the international Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS). This community consists of a network of researchers who carry out place-based SES research in the southern African region. They interact through various cross-cutting working groups and also host a variety of public colloquia and student and practitioner training events. Known as the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (SAPECS), its core objectives are to: (1) derive new approaches and empirical insights on SES dynamics in the southern African context; (2) have a tangible impact by mainstreaming knowledge into policy and practice; and (3) grow the community of practice engaged in SES research and governance, including researchers, students and practitioners. This paper reflects on experiences in building the SAPECS community, with the aim of supporting the development of similar networks elsewhere in the world, particularly in the Global South.
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| 4. |
- Mace, Georgina M., et al.
(författare)
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Approaches to defining a planetary boundary for biodiversity
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 28, s. 289-297
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The idea that there is an identifiable set of boundaries, beyond which anthropogenic change will put the Earth system outside a safe operating space for humanity, is attracting interest in the scientific community and gaining support in the environmental policy world. Rockstrom et al. (2009) identify nine such boundaries and highlight biodiversity loss as being the single boundary where current rates of extinction put the Earth system furthest outside the safe operating space. Here we review the evidence to support a boundary based on extinction rates and identify weaknesses with this metric and its bearing on humanity's needs. While changes to biodiversity are of undisputed importance, we show that both extinction rate and species richness are weak metrics for this purpose, and they do not scale well from local to regional or global levels. We develop alternative approaches to determine biodiversity loss boundaries and extend our analysis to consider large-scale responses in the Earth system that could affect its suitability for complex human societies which in turn are mediated by the biosphere. We suggest three facets of biodiversity on which a boundary could be based: the genetic library of life; functional type diversity; and biome condition and extent. For each of these we explore the science needed to indicate how it might be measured and how changes would affect human societies. In addition to these three facets, we show how biodiversity's role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity may lie primarily in its interactions with other boundaries, suggesting an immediate area of focus for scientists and policymakers.
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| 5. |
- Biggs, Duan, et al.
(författare)
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Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises?
- 2011
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 16:2, s. 10-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such an increased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises, and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because of increased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of a concatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for a future of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increased tolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks, and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning.
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| 6. |
- Ernst, Yolandi, et al.
(författare)
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The African Regional Greenhouse Gases Budget (2010–2019)
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 38:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As part of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 (RECCAP2) project, we developed a comprehensive African Greenhouse gases (GHG) budget covering 2000 to 2019 (RECCAP1 and RECCAP2 time periods), and assessed uncertainties and trends over time. We compared bottom-up process-based models, data-driven remotely sensed products, and national GHG inventories with top-down atmospheric inversions, accounting also for lateral fluxes. We incorporated emission estimates derived from novel methodologies for termites, herbivores, and fire, which are particularly important in Africa. We further constrained global woody biomass change products with high-quality regional observations. During the RECCAP2 period, Africa's carbon sink capacity is decreasing, with net ecosystem exchange switching from a small sink of −0.61 ± 0.58 PgC yr−1 in RECCAP1 to a small source in RECCAP2 at 0.16 (−0.52/1.36) PgC yr−1. Net CO2 emissions estimated from bottom-up approaches were 1.6 (−0.9/5.8) PgCO2 yr−1, net CH4 were 77 (56.4/93.9) TgCH4 yr−1 and net N2O were 2.9 (1.4/4.9) TgN2O yr−1. Top-down atmospheric inversions showed similar trends. Land Use Change emissions increased, representing one of the largest contributions at 1.7 (0.8/2.7) PgCO2eq yr−1 to the African GHG budget and almost similar to emissions from fossil fuels at 1.74 (1.53/1.96) PgCO2eq yr−1, which also increased from RECCAP1. Additionally, wildfire emissions decreased, while fuelwood burning increased. For most component fluxes, uncertainty is large, highlighting the need for increased efforts to address Africa-specific data gaps. However, for RECCAP2, we improved our overall understanding of many of the important components of the African GHG budget that will assist to inform climate policy and action.
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| 7. |
- Fensholt, Rasmus, et al.
(författare)
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Greenness in semi-arid areas across the globe 1981-2007 - an Earth Observing Satellite based analysis of trends and drivers
- 2012
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Ingår i: Remote Sensing of Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0034-4257. ; 121, s. 144-158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Semi-arid areas, defined as those areas of the world where water is an important limitation for plant growth, have become the subject of increased interest due to the impacts of current global changes and sustainability of human lifestyles. While many ground-based reports of declining vegetation productivity have been published over the last decades, a number of recent publications have shown a nuanced and, for some regions, positive picture. With this background, the paper provides an analysis of trends in vegetation greenness of semi-arid areas using AVHRR GIMMS from 1981 to 2007. The vegetation index dataset is used as a proxy for vegetation productivity and trends are analyzed for characterization of changes in semi-arid vegetation greenness. Calculated vegetation trends are analyzed with gridded data on potential climatic constraints to plant growth to explore possible causes of the observed changes. An analysis of changes in the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness and climatic drivers is conducted for selected regions to further understand the causes of observed inter-annual vegetation changes in semi-arid areas across the globe. It is concluded that semi-arid areas, across the globe, on average experience an increase in greenness (0.015 NDVI units over the period of analysis). Further it is observed that increases in greenness are found both in semi-arid areas where precipitation is the dominating limiting factor for plant production (0.019 NDVI units) and in semi-arid areas where air temperature is the primarily growth constraint (0.013 NDVI units). Finally, in the analysis of changes in the intra-annual variation of greenness it is found that seemingly similar increases in greenness over the study period may have widely different explanations. This implies that current generalizations, claiming that land degradation is ongoing in semi-arid areas worldwide, are not supported by the satellite based analysis of vegetation greenness. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 8. |
- Larigauderie, Anne, et al.
(författare)
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Biodiversity and ecosystem services science for a sustainable planet : the DIVERSITAS vision for 2012-20
- 2012
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 4:1, s. 101-105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- DIVERSITAS, the international programme on biodiversity science, is releasing a strategic vision presenting scientific challenges for the next decade of research on biodiversity and ecosystem services: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science for a Sustainable Planet. This new vision is a response of the biodiversity and ecosystem services scientific community to the accelerating loss of the components of biodiversity, as well as to changes in the biodiversity science-policy landscape (establishment of a Biodiversity Observing Network - GEO BON, of an Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services - IPBES, of the new Future Earth initiative; and release of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020). This article presents the vision and its core scientific challenges.
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| 9. |
- Merbold, Lutz, et al.
(författare)
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Opportunities for an African greenhouse gas observation system
- 2021
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global population projections foresee the biggest increase to occur in Africa with most of the available uncultivated land to ensure food security remaining on the continent. Simultaneously, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise due to ongoing land use change, industrialisation, and transport amongst other reasons with Africa becoming a major emitter of greenhouse gases globally. However, distinct knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their variability remains largely unknown caused by its vast size and diversity and an according lack of observations across the continent. Thus, an environmental research infrastructure—as being setup in other regions—is more needed than ever. Here, we present the results of a design study that developed a blueprint for establishing such an environmental research infrastructure in Africa. The blueprint comprises an inventory of already existing observations, the spatial disaggregation of locations that will enable to reduce the uncertainty in climate forcing’s in Africa and globally as well as an overall estimated cost for such an endeavour of about 550 M€ over the next 30 years. We further highlight the importance of the development of an e-infrastructure, the necessity for capacity development and the inclusion of all stakeholders to ensure African ownership.
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| 10. |
- Nickless, Alecia, et al.
(författare)
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Greenhouse gas observation network design for Africa
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1, s. 1-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An optimal network design was carried out to prioritise the installation or refurbishment of greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring stations around Africa. The network was optimised to reduce the uncertainty in emissions across three of the most important GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O. Optimal networks were derived using incremental optimisation of the percentage uncertainty reduction achieved by a Gaussian Bayesian atmospheric inversion. The solution for CO2 was driven by seasonality in net primary productivity. The solution for N2O was driven by activity in a small number of soil flux hotspots. The optimal solution for CH4 was consistent over different seasons. All solutions for CO2 and N2O placed sites in central Africa at places such as Kisangani, Kinshasa and Bunia (Democratic Republic of Congo), Dundo and Lubango (Angola), Zoétélé (Cameroon), Am Timan (Chad), and En Nahud (Sudan). Many of these sites appeared in the CH4 solutions, but with a few sites in southern Africa as well, such as Amersfoort (South Africa). The multi-species optimal network design solutions tended to have sites more evenly spread-out, but concentrated the placement of new tall-tower stations in Africa between 10ºN and 25ºS. The uncertainty reduction achieved by the multi-species network of twelve stations reached 47.8% for CO2, 34.3% for CH4, and 32.5% for N2O. The gains in uncertainty reduction diminished as stations were added to the solution, with an expected maximum of less than 60%. A reduction in the absolute uncertainty in African GHG emissions requires these additional measurement stations, as well as additional constraint from an integrated GHG observatory and a reduction in uncertainty in the prior biogenic fluxes in tropical Africa.
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