| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Kelemu, Tsehayneh, et al.
(författare)
-
Association of Maternal Regulatory Single Nucleotide Polymorphic CD99 Genotype with Preeclampsia in Pregnancies Carrying Male Fetuses in Ethiopian Women
- 2020
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Molecular Sciences. - : MDPI AG. - 1422-0067. ; 21:16
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Preeclampsia (PE) is a human specific syndrome with unknown etiology causing maternal and fetal morbidities and mortalities. In PE, maternal inflammatory responses are more exaggerated if the fetus is male than female. Other pregnancy complications such as spontaneous abortions are also more common if the fetus is male. Recent transcriptome findings showed an increased expression of CD99 in erythroid cells from male cord blood in PE. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs311103, located in a GATA-binding site in a regulatory region on the X/Y chromosomes, governs a coordinated expression of the Xg blood group members CD99 and Xga in hematopoietic cells in a sex-dependent fashion. The rs311103C disrupts the GATA-binding site, resulting in decreased CD99 expression. We aimed to investigate the association between PE and the allele frequency of rs311103 in pregnancies in a fetal sex-dependent fashion. In a case-controlled study, we included 241 pregnant women, i.e., 105 PE cases and 136 normotensive controls. A SNP allelic discrimination analysis was performed on DNA from maternal venous blood and fetal cord blood by qPCR. A statistically significant association was observed between rs311103 allele frequency and PE in mothers carrying male fetuses. Therefore, the rs311103 genotype may play a role in the pathogenesis of PE in a fetal sex-specific manner.
|
|
| 3. |
- Kelemu, Tsehayneh, et al.
(författare)
-
Polymorphism in killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors and human leukocyte antigen-c and predisposition to preeclampsia in Ethiopian pregnant women population
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Reproductive Immunology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0165-0378. ; 141
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Preeclampsia (PE) is a human specific pregnancy-related syndrome of unknown etiology that affects 2–8 % of pregnancies. Polymorphism in maternal Killer Cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptors (KIRs) and the ligand fetal Human Leukocyte Antigen-C (HLA-C) may predispose pregnant mothers for PE due to defective trophoblast invasion into the maternal decidua. Our study aimed to investigate the association between maternal KIR and fetal HLA-C polymorphism and PE in Ethiopian pregnant women. Methods: We included a total of 288 (157 controls and 131 PE cases) in a case-controls study at Adama Regional Referral Hospital, Ethiopia. The KIR and HLA-C genotyping was done using traditional polymerase chain reaction on genomic DNA extracted form maternal venous and cord blood followed by 2% agarose gel electrophoresis. Results: The statistical associations between variables were evaluated using Pearson's Chi-square test. P < 0.05, with 95 % confidence interval was considered statistically significant. A significant association was observed between the KIR2DS1 and PE, with a higher frequency (60.5 %) of the gene in the control group. Similarly, a significant association was observed between KIR AA genotype and PE, with a higher frequency (38.2 %) of this genotype in the PE group. Ethiopians share the same risk genotype for PE as seen in previous African and European studies, namely homozygosity of a maternal KIR AA genotype. However, Ethiopians differ from other East African populations by sharing the same protective KIR2DS1 gene as Europeans.
|
|
| 4. |
- Khalil, Eltahir A G, et al.
(författare)
-
Safety and efficacy of single dose versus multiple doses of AmBisome for treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in eastern Africa : a randomised trial.
- 2014
-
Ingår i: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 8:1, s. e2613-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Anti-leishmanial drug regimens that include a single dose AmBisome could be suitable for eastern African patients with symptomatic visceral leishmaniasis (VL) but the appropriate single dose is unknown.METHODOLOGY: A multi-centre, open-label, non-inferiority, randomized controlled trial with an adaptive design, was conducted to compare the efficacy and safety of a single dose and multiple doses of AmBisome for the treatment of VL in eastern Africa. The primary efficacy endpoint was definitive cure (DC) at 6 months. Symptomatic patients with parasitologically-confirmed, non-severe VL, received a single dose of AmBisome 7.5 mg/kg body weight or multiple doses, 7 times 3 mg/kg on days 1-5, 14, and 21. If interim analyses, evaluated 30 days after the start of treatment following 40 or 80 patients, showed the single dose gave significantly poorer parasite clearance than multiple doses at the 5% significance level, the single dose was increased by 2·5 mg/kg. In a sub-set of patients, parasite clearance was measured by quantitative reverse transcriptase (qRT) PCR.PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The trial was terminated after the third interim analysis because of low efficacy of both regimens. Based on the intention-to-treat population, DC was 85% (95%CI 73-93%), 40% (95%CI 19-64%), and 58% (95%CI 41-73%) in patients treated with multiple doses (n = 63), and single doses of 7·5 (n = 21) or 10 mg/kg (n = 40), respectively. qRT-PCR suggested superior parasite clearance with multiple doses as early as day 3. Safety data accorded with the drug label.CONCLUSIONS: The tested AmBisome regimens would not be suitable for VL treatment across eastern Africa. An optimal single dose regimen was not identified.TRIALS REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.govNCT00832208.
|
|
| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
