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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Kato, Norihiro, et al.
(författare)
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Trans-ancestry genome-wide association study identifies 12 genetic loci influencing blood pressure and implicates a role for DNA methylation
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 47:11, s. 1282-1293
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 × 10−11 to 5.0 × 10−21). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 × 10−6). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation.
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- Papavero, Luca, et al.
(författare)
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Degenerative Cervical Myelopathy : A 7-Letter Coding System That Supports Decision-Making for the Surgical Approach
- 2020
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Ingår i: Neurospine. - : The Korean Spinal Neurosurgery Society. - 2586-6583 .- 2586-6591. ; 17:1, s. 164-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To validate with a prospective study a decision-supporting coding system for the surgical approach for multilevel degenerative cervical myelopathy.METHODS: Ten cases were presented on an internet platform, including clinical and imaging data. A single-approach (G1), a choice between 2 (G2), or 3 approaches (G3) were options. Senior and junior spine surgeons analyzed 7 parameters: location and extension of the compression of the spinal cord, C-spine alignment and instability, general morbidity and bone diseases, and K-line and multilevel corpectomy. For each parameter, an anterior, posterior, or combined approach was suggested. The most frequent letter or the last letter (if C) of the resulting 7-letter code (7LC) suggested the surgical approach. Each surgeon performed 2 reads per case within 8 weeks.RESULTS: G1: Interrater reliability between junior surgeons improved from the first read (κ = 0.40) to the second (κ = 0.76, p < 0.001) but did not change between senior surgeons (κ = 0.85). The intrarater reliability was similar for junior (κ = 0.78) and senior (κ = 0.71) surgeons. G2: Junior/senior surgeons agreed completely (58%/62%), partially (24%/23%), or did not agree (18%/15%) with the 7LC choice. G3: junior/senior surgeons agreed completely (50%/50%) or partially (50%/50%) with the 7LC choice.CONCLUSION: The 7LC showed good overall reliability. Junior surgeons went through a learning curve and converged to senior surgeons in the second read. The 7LC helps less experienced surgeons to analyze, in a structured manner, the relevant clinical and imaging parameters influencing the choice of the surgical approach, rather than simply pointing out the only correct one.
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