| 1. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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An integrative research framework to unravel the interplay of natural hazards and vulnerabilities
- 2018
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2328-4277. ; 6:3, s. 305-310
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectednessbetween physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction(DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of theworld, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue thatthese dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integratethe two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and thevulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework thatspecifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss theessential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action.
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| 2. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Adaptive governance in the developing world : disaster risk reduction in the State of Odisha, India
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate and Development. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1756-5529 .- 1756-5537. ; 11:3, s. 238-252
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Under what conditions do governments turn to adaptive governance systems? This paper explores a success case of adaptive governance in a non-western country and tries to understand what factors lead to the adoption of this type of governance. Adaptive governance is considered most efficient to address the many challenges of climate change and natural disasters because it embraces uncertainty by focusing on collaboration, flexibility and learning. Yet, the concept remains underdeveloped and the conditions under which governments decide to embrace adaptive governance are not clear. The paper argues that two main factors are crucial for governments to turn to adaptive governance. First, a traumatic shock is likely to stimulate a reconsideration of the manner in which governance is thought and applied. The shock by involving considerable economic and human cost creates a momentum for governance rethinking. Second, a committed political leadership is essential to make use of that momentum to reform previous governance practices to create a more resilient system. These arguments are explored in the case of Odisha, an Indian state that was able to adopt adaptive governance and that became a successful example of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.
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| 3. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Conflict in the Eye of the Storm : Micro-dynamics of Natural Disasters, Cooperation and Armed Conflict
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Many of the most destructive natural disasters have taken place in situations characterized by armed conflict and insecurity: the Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka and Indonesia in 2004, the floods in Pakistan in 2011, the drought in Somalia in 2011 and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013. Surprisingly little research has systematically explored how armed conflict affects natural disaster management, and how shocks from natural disaster influence conflict dynamics. This dissertation addresses these gaps by providing a qualitative and disaggregated analysis of the micro-dynamics underpinning the relationship between armed conflict, natural disasters and cooperation. It asks: what is the relationship between natural disasters and processes of conflict and cooperation in countries affected by civil conflict? To explore this question, the dissertation offers four essays that explore different facets of this relationship, focusing on the rebel group. Examining collaboration between rebel group and humanitarian actors during disaster relief efforts in the Philippines, essay I finds that rebel group behavior after a natural disaster is shaped by the level of hostility between combatant parties and the nature of the ties with the local population. Exploring the effect of natural disasters on conflict dynamics in the case of the Philippines, essay II suggests that natural disasters hinder rebel group recruitment tactics, by increasing hardship for rebel combatants and supporters, by weakening the rebel group’s organizational structure and supply lines, and by leading to a loss of territorial control. Based on a comparative case study between Colombia and the Philippines, essay III revisits ripeness theory and argues that the level of rebel group cohesion will help to predict whether or not rebel groups stay at the negotiation table until an agreement is reached. While a typhoon affected the Philippines during the negotiations, it did not “ripen” the peace talks. Finally, article IV explores pre-disaster evacuation across conflict-affected regions in the Philippines and India, and argues that both experience of previous disaster and the level of trust in government officials influence the likelihood of people evacuating. The dissertation has important implications for both disaster management and conflict resolution, and it calls for more dialogue between both disciplines.
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| 4. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Disaster risk reduction amidst armed conflict : informal institutions, rebel groups, and wartime political orders
- 2018
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Ingår i: Disasters. The Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management. - : WILEY. - 0361-3666 .- 1467-7717. ; 42:S2, s. S239-S264
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extant research has explored the effect of natural hazards on the risk of armed conflict, but very few studies have examined how conflict dynamics affect disaster risk reduction (DRR), including climate change adaptation. This is surprising given the empirical evidence that indicates how often disasters and armed conflicts collide. To understand better the impact of armed conflict on DRR, this paper develops a conceptual typology that is based on rebel groups' territorial control and on the strength of informal institutions. It documents three main political orders amid conflict: rebel stability; informal stability; and fragmented landscape. These wartime political orders will have different effects on DRR and other development programmes, revealing the importance of desegregating armed conflict to facilitate tailor-made and more efficient interventions. The paper provides empirical evidence from Mali and the Philippines that illustrates the influence of these wartime political orders on DRR programmes.
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| 5. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Evacuation ahead of natural disasters : Evidence from cyclone Phailin in India and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines
- 2018
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Ingår i: GEO-GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENT. - : WILEY. - 2054-4049. ; 5:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Why do some people evacuate ahead of natural disasters while others do not? This paper explores the conditions under which people are likely to evacuate. It does so by contrasting a success case of evacuation before cyclone Phailin in Orissa (India), with a failed case in Tacloban, before typhoon Haiyan (the Philippines). This paper examines this striking variation by examining the importance of two main factors suggested by previous research: experience and trust. The paper argues that prior experience of natural disaster increases individual perception of risk and may lead to institutional learning, but only where the experienced disaster was traumatic. Trust between citizens and public officials is held to further increase the likelihood people will evacuate in advance of natural disasters. Evidence of these causal mechanisms is found in the empirical analysis, which is based on 41 interviews and six focused group discussions in India and the Philippines between August and November 2014.
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| 6. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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From curse to blessing–how natural resources affect peace and conflict in the Philippines
- 2018
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Ingår i: Routledge Handbook of Environmental Conflict and Peacebuilding. - Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2018. : Routledge. - 9781138202528 - 9781315473772
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Under what conditions do natural resources become opportunities for peace in countries affected by civil wars? While natural resources could generate important economic development for the country and build peace, they can also fuel violence if not properly managed. This variation is found in the case of the Philippines where natural resources management has been a source of conflict and peace.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Rethinking Ripeness Theory : Explaining Progress and Failure in Civil War Negotiations in the Philippines and Colombia
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Negotiation. - : Brill. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 21:1, s. 75-103
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How can ripeness theory be extended to explain when and why parties remain at the negotiating table until an agreement is reached? Existing ripeness theory is crucial in understanding when conflicting parties consider negotiation as preferable to continued fighting. However, factors which may explain why parties stay at the negotiation table after the start of the negotiation process - that is, how the ripe moment is sustained until an agreement has been reached - are not well elaborated. This study seeks to extend ripeness theory and argues that organizationally fragmented rebel groups are less flexible to make concessions and unlikely to stay at the negotiation table until an agreement is reached, especially when there is a lack of cohesion between the military and political branches. This argument is explored through a structured focused comparison of the peace negotiations in Colombia and in the Philippines with communist rebel groups.
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| 9. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Should I Stay or Should I Go? How People Respond to Evacuation Orders ahead of Natural Disasters in the Philippines and India
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Why do some people evacuate ahead of natural disasters while others do not? The question is crucial for effective natural disaster response and crisis management. The timely response to early warning alerts before Cyclone Phailin in India led to a minimal death toll despite being affected by a powerful cyclone that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and affected the livelihoods of 13 million people in October 2013. A month later, Typhoon Haiyan devastated the regions of Samar, Leyte and Panay in the Philippines, causing up to 8,000 fatalities. Only a minority of the population followed the warnings and evacuation orders. This paper explores the striking variation of responses between India and the Philippines by examining the importance of two main factors suggested by previous research: experience and trust. Prior experience of natural disaster increases individual perception of risk and may lead to institutional learning, but only where the experienced disaster was traumatic. Trust between citizens and public officials is held to further increase the likelihood people will evacuate in advance of natural disasters. These two interrelated factors are explored through a structured, focused comparison between the responses to Cyclone Phailin in India (Orissa) and to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines (Leyte) in 2013. The data, drawn from extensive field research in India and the Philippines, combines a household survey together with 30 semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions.
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| 10. |
- Walch, Colin, 1985-
(författare)
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Too partial to work? : Informal institutions in the midst of climate change and armed conflict in central Mali
- 2021
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Ingår i: African Journal on Conflict Resolution. - : African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes. - 1562-6997 .- 2309-737X. ; 21:2, s. 101-126
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In situations characterised by armed conflict and climate change, can informal institutions resolve conflict around shrinking resources? It is widely acknowledged that low state capacity increases the likelihood of violence in the context of climate change. In such context, informal institutions should play a crucial role in preventing and mitigating violence in the absence of formal institutions. However, little is known of the characteristics of these informal institutions and existing literature on climate change and conflict has examined them in isolation from national contexts and actors. This paper seeks to address this gap and argues that impartiality is essential for the ability of informal institutions to resolve resource-based conflict, a by-product of climate change, and prevent violence escalation. However, when institutions are partial, because of co-option by the state or other external actors, their decisions may further increase communal violence and prolong civil conflict. Partial institutions can encourage people to take justice into their own hands, and push individuals to join rebel groups offering more favourable options in redressing grievances. This theoretical argument is explored through a case study on central Mali, where partial informal institutions, in conjunction with other factors, have led to increased violence in the region.
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