| 1. |
- Andersson, Lotta, et al.
(författare)
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Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climate and Development. - : Taylor and Francis: STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles. - 1756-5529 .- 1756-5537. ; 5:3, s. 217-228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents the design and testing of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local adaptation plan to climate change. The pilot study focused on small-scale and commercial agriculture, water supply, housing, wildlife, livestock and biodiversity in the Thukela River basin, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The methodology was based on stakeholders identifying and ranking the severity of climate-related challenges, and downscaled stakeholder-identified information provided by modellers, with the aim of addressing possible changes of exposure in the future. The methodology enables the integration of model-based information with experience and visions based on local realities. It includes stakeholders own assessments of their vulnerability to prevailing climate variability and the severity, if specified, of climate-related problems that may occur more often in the future. The methodology made it possible to identify the main issues to focus on in the adaptation plan, including barriers to adaptation. We make recommendations for how to design a model-assisted participatory process, emphasizing the need for transparency, to recognize the interests of the stakeholders, good advance planning, local relevance, involvement of local champions, and adaptation of Information material to each groups previous experience and understanding.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Från global klimatforskning till lokal riskanalys och klimatanpassning : Exempel på hur man kan arbeta med lokalt deltagande, kombinerat med modeller i formulering av lokal sårbarhets och anpassningsplaner vid förändrat klimat
- 2010
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Ingår i: Klimatets krav på samhället. - Linköping : Linköping University Electronic Press. - 9789173935647 ; , s. 47-64
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Sverige hör troligen inte till de regioner i världen som är mest sårbara för klimatvariabilitet och förändringar. Effekter från ett förändrat klimat kommer dock med stor sannolikhet att vara märkbara även lokalt i Sverige, vilket diskuteras mer ingående i Sten Bergströms artikel. Denna artikel syftar till att bidra med erfarenheter runt hur man kan arbeta med att ta fram lokalt förankrade anpassningsstrategier. Med tanke på osäkerheter om detaljer i det framtida klimatet, kan det ibland ifrågasättas om det är rimligt att göra stora investeringar på så osäkra grunder. I detta sammanhang är det viktigt att tänka på att anpassningsstrategier för att möta framtida förändringar även gör oss bättre rustade att möta den klimatvariabilitet som vi redan lever med. Att välja rätt strategier för framtiden bör därför baseras på identifikation och fokus på de klimatrelaterade problem som vi har redan idag, med fokus på de problem som ger allvarligast effekter för olika sektorer i samhället, samt, baserad på regionalt nedskalade modellberäkningar, identifikation av sannolikheten för att dessa problem kommer att öka i framtiden. I denna artikel ges ett exempel på hur man genom aktörsamverkan kan ta fram lokala och regionala åtgärdsplaner. Samverkan har assisterats av klimat och vattenmodellerare, som i dialog med lokala aktörer tagit fram det material som behövts för att föra diskussionerna vidare. Exempel ges från ett pågående projekt i Sydafrika, men metoderna är lika relevanta i Sverige. Liknande metoder har, t.ex. använts för att ta fram en lokalt föreslagen åtgärdsplan mot övergödning i Kaggebofjärden, med medverkan från bl.a. lantbrukare, sommarstugeägare och kommuner (rapport kan beställas från lotta.andersson@smhi.se) . Dessutom beskrivs kortfattat ett nystartat INTERREG-projekt, ”Baltic Climate” som bl.a. syftar till att ge kommuner och lokala aktörer runt Östersjön möjlighet att möta klimatförändringarna på ett hållbart sätt..
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Lotta, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 331:1-2, s. 43-57
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper lays the foundation for the use of scenario modelling as a tool for integrated water resource management in the Okavango River basin. The Pitman hydrological model is used to assess the impact of various development and climate change scenarios on downstream river flow. The simulated impact on modelled river discharge of increased water use for domestic use, livestock, and informal irrigation (proportional to expected population increase) is very limited. Implementation of all likely potential formal irrigation schemes mentioned in available reports is expected to decrease the annual flow by 2% and the minimum monthly flow by 5%. The maximum possible impact of irrigation on annual average flow is estimated as 8%, with a reduction of minimum monthly flow by 17%. Deforestation of all areas within a 1 km buffer around the rivers is estimated to increase the flow by 6%. However, construction of all potential hydropower reservoirs in the basin may change the monthly mean flow distribution dramatically, although under the assumed operational rules, the impact of the dams is only substantial during wet years. The simulated impacts of climate change are considerable larger that those of the development scenarios (with exception of the high development scenario of hydropower schemes) although the results are sensitive to the choice of GCM and the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The annual mean water flow predictions for the period 2020-2050 averaged over scenarios from all the four GCMs used in this study are close to the present situation for both the A2 and B2 GHG scenarios. For the 2050-2080 and 2070-2099 periods the all-GCM mean shows a flow decrease of 20% (14%) and 26% (17%), respectively, for the A2 (B2) GHG scenarios. However, the uncertainty in the magnitude of simulated future changes remains high. The simulated effect of climate change on minimum monthly flow is proportionally higher than the impact on the annual mean flow. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa : Recommendations for Adaptation
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council). The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) during a series of workshops held in 2007-2009. Between the workshops, the researcher’s compiled locally relevant climate change related information, based on requests from the workshop participants, as a basis for this adaptation plan. The aim is to provide a local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation strategies. The assessment identifies existing climate-water related problems, current adaptation strategies and recommendations for future action based on likelihoods for change and the severity if such changes will occur.
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| 5. |
- Andersson, Lotta, et al.
(författare)
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Local early warning systems for drought - Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?
- 2020
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Ingår i: Weather and Climate Extremes. - : ELSEVIER. - 2212-0947. ; 28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak. A local early warning system (EWS) was developed that incorporated hydrological modelled information based on national SCF, locally monitored rainfall and soil moisture by a wireless sensor network, and signs from indigenous climate indicators. We assessed to what degree this local EWS could improve interpretation of SCF and increase understanding and uptake by farmers. Local extension staff and champion farmers were found to play important knowledge brokering roles that could be strengthened to increase trust of SCF. The local EWS provided added value to national SCF by involving community members in local monitoring, enacting knowledge interplay with indigenous knowledge and simplifying and tailoring SCF and hydrological information to the local context. It also helped farmers mentally prepare for upcoming conditions even if many do not currently have the adaptive mindsets, economic resources or pre-conditions to positively respond to SCF information.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Participatory modelling for locally proposed climate change adaptation related to water and agriculture in South Africa
- 2010
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Ingår i: <em><em>Global change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources</em></em>. - : International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). - 9781907161131 ; , s. 214-220
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The participatory modelling project (PAMO) carried out in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa assessed vulnerability to climate variability and change on water resources through direct involvement of affected groups. The aim was to increase stakeholder confidence and ownership, and create a local adaptation plan. Meetings were held with three stakeholder groups: (a) government authorities, research nstitutes, NGOs, (b) commercial farmers, and (c) small-scale farmers, and complemented with interviews. Based on participants’requests, modellers compiled regionally dynamically downscaled climate change projections, as well as their hydrological consequences. The project focused on agriculture, water resources/infrastructure and biodiversity. Though many future problems were shared, their pre-conditions for dealing with these were vastly different. Knowledge transfer within and across the farming communities and with government agencies on climate change, adaptation measures, and means to procure financing and permits for measures will aid local initiatives to prepare for climate variability and change.
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| 8. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Use of participatory scenario modeling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrocomplexity : New Tools for Solving Wicked Water Problems - New Tools for Solving Wicked Water Problems. - 0144-7815. - 9781907161117
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Water related problems are characterized by complexities, uncertainties, and conflicting interests and there is no single “optimal” way to approach these “wicked” problems. Model-assisted participatory processes have been suggested as one way to meet these challenges. However, the use of models as ascenario tools for local planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing environmental challenges is more often an exception than a common practice. In order to assess future possibilities for successful useof participatory scenario modelling, experiences from two model-facilitated projects are presented and discussed. The participatory scenario modelling described in this paper, implies modelling with people, as opposed to agent based modelling which is based on modelling of people’s behaviour and its consequences. In the first project, a participatory model-assisted process was conducted to formulate a locally proposed remedy plan to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus loads in local lakes and the coastal zone. In the second project, a similar process was used to formulate local adaptation strategies to climate change impacts on water allocation, farming and the environment. Based on the experiences of these projects; recommendations are made to how model-assisted participatory processes can best be organised and conducted. A key message is that modellers need to rethink their role as “solution providers” to become “process facilitators”.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Bastviken, David, et al.
(författare)
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Critical method needs in measuring greenhouse gas fluxes
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 1748-9326. ; 17:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reaching climate goals depends on appropriate and accurate methods to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and to verify that efforts to mitigate GHG emissions are effective. We here highlight critical advantages, limitations, and needs regarding GHG flux measurement methods, identified from an analysis of >13 500 scientific publications regarding three long-lived GHGs, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). While existing methods are well-suited for assessing atmospheric changes and local fluxes, they are expensive and have limited accessibility. Further, we are typically forced to choose between methods for very local GHG sources and sinks and their regulation (m(2)-scaled measurements), or methods for aggregated net fluxes at >ha or km(2) scales measurements. The results highlight the key need of accessible and affordable GHG flux measurement methods for the many flux types not quantifiable from fossil fuel use, to better verify inventories and mitigation efforts for transparency and accountability under the Paris agreement. The situation also calls for novel methods, capable of quantifying large scale GHG flux patterns while simultaneously distinguishing local source and sink dynamics and reveal flux regulation, representing key knowledge for quantitative GHG flux modeling. Possible strategies to address the identified GHG flux measurement method needs are discussed. The analysis also generated indications of how GHG flux measurements have been distributed geographically and across flux types, which are reported.
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