| 31. |
- Johansson, Magnus, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the range of perspectives on lessons-learning from the 2005 storm in Sweden
- 2009
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lessons learning from systematic analyses of past natural disasters is of great importance for future risk reduction and vulnerability management. It is one crucial piece of a puzzle towards disaster resilient societies, together with e.g. models of future emerging climate-related risks, globalization or demographic changes. Systematic analyses of impact and management of past events have commonly been produced in many sectors, but the knowledge is seldom shared outside the own organization or produced for other actors. LPHC (low probability high consequences) disasters usually comprise most analytical activities, since they often are met with surprise and highlight the failure to integrate resilience into normal societal planning. During the last 50 years, several LPHC events in Sweden have functioned as alarm clocks and entailed major changes and improvements in government policies or legislations, safety management systems, risk assessments, response training, stakeholder communication, etc. Such an event occurred in January 2005 when Northern Europe was confronted with one of the most severe storms in modern history. Accidents that caused 24 fatalities occurred (17 in Sweden), several regions in UK and Germany were flooded and extensive areas of storm-felled forests left nearly one million households in Scandinavia without electricity. In Sweden the quantity of storm-felled trees was equivalent to the combined volume felled by other storms during the whole of the 20th century, which caused exceptional damage to forests, roads, railways and electricity and telecommunications networks, including cell-phones. Follow-ups and evaluations at local level, as regulated by law, together with government commissions to central authorities and interest from research communities, have resulted in an extensive production of documented lessons learning. The production of in total 24 reports, 7 scientific articles and 2 economic reports from business associations divides thematically quite equally within coping capacity and exposed and susceptible elements. Most attention allots crisis management and response issues (45 %). Only one attempt is made to present a holistic view of the event and it is not a law bounded initiative. Evaluations from other recent events, e.g. the flood 2000 in Arvika and the landslide at Munkedal 2006, show the same clear focus on crisis management and less or none consideration taken to environmental, social or socioeconomic consequences. It reflects the traditional political financial will to invest in a high level on response capacity on expense of preventive work
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| 32. |
- Johansson, Magnus, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
-
How to measure efficiency in risk prevention?
- 2012
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk assessment methods form corner stones in the striving to reduce risks and threats to human life and society. Proposed actions can be physical or non-physical and adopted or declined after political evaluation, with consideration taken to available resources and estimated effect on risk. To optimize and avoid regrettable actions, decision-makers are in need of well-founded analyses of how efficient different options might be. Analytically, there are several possible steps that can contribute.Firstly, the correlation between a measure and its effect should be based on causality, which often is difficult to establish quantitatively. High frequent accidents (e.g. traffic) can normally be treated statistically , while low frequent accidents with severe consequences (e.g. natural hazards) are more restricted to qualitative descriptions of correlation. Systematic monitoring of injury and damage data and gathering into databases, are a crucial activity for causality valuation. Secondly, economic valuation of effect is an important contribution in a cost-benefit perspective. Thirdly, a measure often brings several different effects and some may fall outside the actual purpose. An additional problem is how to handle effects that exert varied influence on different stakeholders or social groups in society. Fourthly, certain criteria are required for final prioritization. For instance, in analysis of goal fulfillment, effects are compared with politically decided quantified goals.In cases where basic data from steps 1-3 are incomplete, alternative criteria like “acceptable risk” might be necessary to agree about politically. To use similar approaches on how to describe and quantify effect correlations, promote gathered efforts at local level where risk reducing measures are decided upon by different actors and with regard to diverse local conditions. Tests of suitable methods and approaches to measure efficiency of planned or accomplished actions in gain for risk prevention, are described and discussed.
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| 33. |
- Johansson, Magnus, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
-
Learning lessons from natural disasters - sectorial or holistic perspectives?
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Geophysical research abstracts, Vol 11. Extended abstracts.
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lessons learning from systematic analyses of past natural disasters is of great importance for future risk reduction and vulnerability management. It is one crucial piece of a puzzle towards disaster resilient societies, together with e.g. models of future emerging climate-related risks, globalization or demographic changes. Systematic analyses of impact and management of past events have commonly been produced in many sectors, but the knowledge is seldom shared outside the own organization or produced for other actors. To increase the availability of reports and documents, the Swedish Rescue Services Agency has created the Swedish Natural Hazards Information System, in accordance with a government commission from 2005. The system gathers accident reports, investigations and in-depth analyses, together with societal additional costs and mappings of consequences from central and local governments, NGOs and private actors. Evaluation of the collection reveals large differences in quality, systematic approach, depth and extent, clearly consistent with the lack of coherent harmonization of investigation and reporting approaches. Type of hazard, degree of impact and time elapsed since present are decisive for the collectedvolume. LPHC (low probability high consequences) disasters usually comprise most data and analytical activities, since they often are met with surprise and highlight the failure to integrate resilience into normal societal planning. During the last 50 years, several LPHC events in Sweden have functioned as alarm clocks and entailed major changes and improvements in government policies or legislations, safety management systems, risk assessments,response training, stakeholder communication, etc. Such an event occurred in January 2005 when Northern Europe was confronted with one of the most severe storms in modern history. Accidents that caused 24 fatalities occurred (17 in Sweden), several regions in UK and Germany were flooded and extensive areas of storm-felled forests left nearly one million households in Scandinavia without electricity. In Sweden the quantity of storm-felled trees was equivalent to the combined volume felled by other storms during the whole of the 20th century, which caused exceptional damage to forests, roads, railways and electricity and telecommunications networks, including cellphones. Follow-ups and evaluations at local level, as regulated by law, together with government commissions to central authorities and interest from research communities, have resulted in an extensive production of documented lessons learning. Our case study describes their thematic extent, identifies different perspectives in relation to their basis for analyses, emphasizes the complementary need of a holistic perspective and puts the Swedish systematic procedure into an international comparison
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| 34. |
- Johansson, Magnus, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
-
Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change
- 2012
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The potential of linking the preventive phase of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) with the adaptation in human society to forecasted consequences from climate change, has received growing acceptance internationally, but the integration of both fields is still at an embryonic stage. Integration in this case implies transdisciplinary approaches in complex fields where liabilities and stakeholders normally are found in different sectors and levels in society. For integration to be successful, a first step is to create platforms and contexts where participants may generate raised awareness about each other’s roles and evolve a shared problem identification. Social learning is a concept that has been used in many different contexts where uncertainty and change are crucial and challenging. It has earlier been linked as a suitable approach to issues such as public participation, governance or natural resource management. Here it is used in education, gathering among others stakeholders working within the fields of Flood Risk Management, DRR and Climate Change Adaptation at local or regional level around the two Swedish lakes Vänern and Mälaren. Teaching arrangements and didactic elements are described for the two pilot-courses that were held 2009-2010. The academic institutional arrangements favoured an open exchange and knowledge building, with local examples of management and strategies repeatedly in focus during several study visits in different cities along the shoreline. The elements of social learning facilitated the build-up of shared holistic perspectives, identified areas in need of development or research efforts and contributed to informal as well as formal relationships among participants.
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| 35. |
- Johansson, Magnus, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
-
Using education and social learning in capacity building- the IntECR concept
- 2013
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Ingår i: Disaster Prevention and Management. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 0965-3562 .- 1758-6100. ; 22:1, s. 17-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – The aim of this paper is to present a concept where social learning is used in education. Thematically, the concept is suitable for complex, interdisciplinary, societal challenges with a high degree of uncertainty regarding future changes. It is exemplified here by the need to link disaster risk reduction (DRR) with climate change adaptation (CCA) and flood risk management (FRM). The concept answers to the variety of adopted solutions and build-up of knowledge that exist, as a consequence of far-reaching local liabilities and initiatives. The concept advocates building of platforms and procedures where managers, stakeholders, researchers, policy makers, and regular students can meet, interact and learn from local examples.Design/methodology/approach – The concept IntECR (integrated education, research and collaboration) has been tested in two courses during 2009 and 2010 around the Swedish lakes Vanern and Malaren. Seminars and field visits were arranged in ten different cities. Participants replied anonymously to a course evaluation and were questioned in groups about their perceived benefit from the concept.Findings – Informal networking, holistic perspective, shared problem identification and the positive possibility to study several examples of local management in arrangements with high degree of structural openness, were mentioned by the participants as positive outcome of the concept.Originality/value – The use of this educational concept aims to increase the adaptive capacity of societal entities through raised capacity of their individual members. The applied example is timely, relevant and a contribution to DRR and CCA
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| 36. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
-
Cloudburst catastrophe modelling : Case study – Jönköping municipality, Sweden
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In Europe, flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards, causing serious risk to life and destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The intense rain causing those floods has a few different names, however, with very similar meaning. The term chosen in this study, ‘cloudburst’, was introduced by Woolley (1946) as “…a torrential downpour of rain which by its spottiness and relatively high intensity suggests the bursting and discharge of the whole cloud at once”. While these events play an important role in the ongoing flood risk management discussion, they are under-represented among flood models.The main aim of this study is to demonstrate an approach by showing how methods and techniques can be integrated together to construct a catastrophe model for flash flooding of Jönköping municipality in Sweden. The model is developed in the framework of the ‘Oasis Loss Modelling Framework’ platform, jointly with end-users from the public sector and the insurance industry. Calibration and validation of the model were conducted by comparisons against three historical cloudburst events and corresponding insurance-claim data.The analysis has shown that it is possible to get acceptable results from a cloudburst catastrophe model using only rainfall data, and not surface-water level as driving variable. The approach presented opens up for such loss modelling in places where complex hydraulic modelling cannot be done because of lacking data or skill of responsible staff. The Swedish case study indicates that the framework presented can be considered as an important decision making tool, by establishing an area for collaboration between academia; insurance businesses; and local authorities, to reduce long-term disaster risk in Sweden.
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| 37. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
-
Index över social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade risker i Sverige
- 2021
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Studien har tagit fram ett sårbarhetsindex på kommunal nivå i Sverige, baserat på 37 socio-ekonomiska variabler. Metoden som utvecklats i USA bygger på statistisk analys (PCA) och visualisering i ett GIS. Resultaten visar på tydliga regionala skillnader för social sårbarhet. Metoden behöver fortsatt utveckling, med studier för att öka förståelsen för vad som skapar sårbarhet i en svensk kontext.
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| 38. |
- Knös, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
-
Cloudburst-disaster modelling : A new open-source catastrophe model
- 2022
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier. - 2212-4209. ; 67
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cloudburst flash floods cause big casualties and economic losses. This study primarily investigated if a cloudburst catastrophe (cat) model could be constructed to meaningfully assess such a hazard, exposure and vulnerability in Swedish urban context. Rainfall intensity was used directly as hazard measure, bypassing hydraulic water-level modelling, to predict vulnerability. The Splash (Swedish pluvial modelling analysis and safety handling) cloudburst-disaster model was constructed using the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, and was based on individual property values and building locations, property-level insurance-loss data, high-resolution geographical data, and rainfall data from a dense municipal gauge network in the city of Jönköping. One major cloudburst event was used to derive a vulnerability curve. The following two events were used for validation and supported the hypothesis that the vulnerability curve changed with time because of municipal flood-risk-reduction measures after the first event. A faulty rain gauge during the first event, replaced by a trustworthy private gauge, clarified the very high sensitivity to cloudburst input. Given the limited amount of loss data, our results were uncertain but they pointed towards possible ways to further this study with other loss data at other locations, possibly using more easily available aggregated loss data. We concluded that a cat model based only on rainfall intensity provided acceptable results, thus providing an opening for future, simplified cloudburst cat models applicable in most geographical contexts where reliable cloudburst data are available, especially in cities with limited topographic data and hydraulic-modelling capacity.
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| 39. |
- Magnusson, Monika, 1965-, et al.
(författare)
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Information Systems for Disaster Management Training : Investigating User Needs with a Design Science Research Approach
- 2018
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management ISCRAM2018. - : ISCRAM. - 9780692127605 ; , s. 841-850
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Societal threats such as global warming and terror attacks make crisis preparedness and crisis training a major priority in governments worldwide. Unfortunately, training is limited, partly due to complex and resource-demanding planning of traditional exercises. Several crisis training software have been developed as a complement. However, reports in research on their usage are rare, which indicates that the diffusion is limited. A potential explanation is that the systems fail to meet important needs in the organizations and/or sound information systems (IS) design principles. This paper describes the first phase of a design science research (DSR) project aiming at developing information systems for disaster management (ISDM) training, and accompanying training methods in local and regional governments. The purpose of this paper is to investigate perceived problems in current crisis training and identify opportunities for ISDM training in the application domain. Another purpose is to outline expected artifacts in the project.
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| 40. |
- Nielsen, Lars, 1955-, et al.
(författare)
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Issues in Diagnosis, Supervision, and Safety
- 1996
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Issues concerning diagnosis, supervision and saftey are found in many technologically advanced products. There is now a trend to extend the functionality of diagnosis and supervision systems to handle more advanced situations. This report collects some of the initiatives taking place in research and some of the developments taking place in the industry.
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