| 1. |
- Khalil, Ibrahim, et al.
(författare)
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Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2016
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Ingår i: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - : American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - 1476-1645 .- 0002-9637. ; 95:6, s. 1319-1329
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat, et al.
(författare)
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A novel interaction between the FLJ33534 locus and smoking in obesity: a genome-wide study of 14 131 Pakistani adults.
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Obesity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5497 .- 0307-0565. ; 40:1, s. 186-190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundObesity is a complex disease caused by the interplay of genetic and lifestyle factors, but identification of gene-lifestyle interactions in obesity has remained challenging. Few large-scale studies have reported use of genome-wide approaches to investigate gene-lifestyle interactions in obesity.MethodsIn the PROMIS study, a cross-sectional study based in Pakistan, we calculated BMI variance estimates (square of the residual of inverse-normal transformed BMI z-score) in 14 131 participants and conducted genome-wide heterogeneity of variance analyses (GWHVA) for this outcome. All analyses were adjusted for age, age(2), sex and genetic ancestry.ResultsThe GWHVA analyses yielded a genome-wide significance (P-value=3.1 × 10(-8)) association of the rs140133294 variant at FLJ33534 with BMI variance. In explicit tests of gene × lifestyle interaction, smoking was found to significantly modify the effect of rs140133294 on BMI (Pinteraction=0.0005), whereby the minor allele (T) was associated with lower BMI in current smokers, while positively associated with BMI in never-smokers. No interactions with physical activity were observed. Analyses of ENCODE data at the FLJ33534 locus revealed features indicative of open chromatin and high confidence DNA-binding motifs for several transcription factors, providing suggestive biological support for a mechanism of interaction.ConclusionIn summary, we have identified a novel interaction between smoking and variation at the FLJ33534 locus in relation to BMI in people from Pakistan.International Journal of Obesity accepted article preview online, 17 August 2015. doi:10.1038/ijo.2015.152.
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| 4. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat, et al.
(författare)
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Adiposity and Genetic Factors in Relation to Triglycerides and Triglyceride-Rich Lipoproteins in the Women's Genome Health Study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Clinical Chemistry. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0009-9147 .- 1530-8561. ; 64:1, s. 231-241
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Previous results from Scandinavian cohorts have shown that obesity accentuates the effects of common genetic susceptibility variants on increased triglycerides (TG). Whether such interactions are present in the US population and further selective for particular TG-rich lipoprotein subfractions is unknown.METHODS: We examined these questions using body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) among women of European ancestry from the Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS) (n = 21840 for BMI; n = 19313 for WC). A weighted genetic risk score (TG-wGRS) based on 40 published TG-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms was calculated using published effect estimates.RESULTS: Comparing overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) and normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2) WGHS women, each unit increase of TG-wGRS was associated with TG increases of 1.013% and 1.011%, respectively, and this differential association was significant (Pinteraction = 0.014). Metaanalyses combining results for WGHS BMI with the 4 Scandinavian cohorts (INTER99, HEALTH2006, GLACIER, MDC) (total n = 40026) yielded a more significant interaction (Pinteraction = 0.001). Similarly, we observed differential association of the TG-wGRS with TG (Pinteraction = 0.006) in strata of WC (<80 cm vs ≥80 cm). Metaanalysis with 2 additional cohorts reporting WC (INTER99 and HEALTH2006) (total n = 27834) was significant with consistent effects (Pinteraction = 0.006). We also observed highly significant interactions of the TG-wGRS across the strata of BMI with very large, medium, and small TG-rich lipoprotein subfractions measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (all Pinteractions < 0.0001). The differential effects were strongest for very large TG-rich lipoprotein.CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the original findings and suggest that obese individuals may be more susceptible to aggregated genetic risk associated with common TG-raising alleles, with effects accentuated in the large TG-rich lipoprotein subfraction.
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| 5. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Risk Factors and Biomarkers Associated With Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Women Consuming a Mediterranean Diet
- 2018
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Ingår i: JAMA Network Open. - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 2574-3805. ; 1:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE Higher Mediterranean diet (MED) intake has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but limited data are available about the underlying molecular mechanisms of this inverse disease association in human populations.OBJECTIVE To better characterize the relative contribution of traditional and novel factors to the MED-related risk reduction in CVD events in a US population.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a prospective cohort design, baseline MED intake was assessed in 25 994 initially healthy US women in theWomen's Health Study who were followed up to 12 years. Potential mediating effects of a panel of 40 biomarkers were evaluated, including lipids, lipoproteins, apolipoproteins, inflammation, glucose metabolism and insulin resistance, branched-chain amino acids, small-molecule metabolites, and clinical factors. Baseline study information and samples were collected between April 30, 1993, and January 24, 1996. Analyses were conducted between August 1, 2017, and October 30, 2018.EXPOSURES Intake of MED is a 9-category measure of adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern. Participants were categorized into 3 levels based on their adherence to the MED.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident CVD confirmed through medical records and the proportion of CVD risk reduction explained by mediators.RESULTS Among 25 994women (mean [SD] age, 54.7 [7.1] years), those with low, middle, and upper MED intakes composed 39.0%, 36.2%, and 24.8% of the study population and experienced 428 (4.2%), 356 (3.8%), and 246 (3.8%) incident CVD events, respectively. Compared with the reference group who had low MED intake, CVD risk reductions were observed for the middle and upper groups, with respective HRs of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.61-0.86) (P for trend < .001). The largest mediators of the CVD risk reduction of MED intake were biomarkers of inflammation (accounting for 29.2% of the MED-CVD association), glucose metabolism and insulin resistance (27.9%), and body mass index (27.3%), followed by blood pressure (26.6%), traditional lipids (26.0%), high-density lipoprotein measures (24.0%) or very low-density lipoprotein measures (20.8%), with lesser contributions from low-density lipoproteins (13.0%), branched-chain amino acids (13.6%), apolipoproteins (6.5%), or other small-molecule metabolites (5.8%).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, higher MED intake was associated with approximately one-fourth relative risk reduction in CVD events, which could be explained in part by known risk factors, both traditional and novel.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat, et al.
(författare)
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Gene-Based Elevated Triglycerides and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Risk in the Women's Genome Health Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis and Vascular Biology. - 1079-5642 .- 1524-4636. ; 39:1, s. 97-106
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective- Higher triglyceride (TG) is a risk factor for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but paradoxically, genetic susceptibility for higher TG has been associated with lower T2DM risk. There is also evidence that the genetic association may be modified by baseline TG. Whether such associations can be replicated and the interaction is selective for certain TG-rich lipoprotein particles remains to be explored.Approach and Results-Cox regression involving TG, TG-rich lipoprotein particles, and genetic determinants of TG was performed among 15 813 participants with baseline fasting status in the WGHS (Women's Genome Health Study), including 1453 T2DM incident cases during a mean 18.6 (SD= 5.3) years of follow-up. A weighted, 40-single-nucleotide polymorphism TG genetic risk score was inversely associated with incident T2DM (hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.66 [0.580.75]/ 10-TG risk alleles; P< 0.0001) with adjustment for baseline body mass index, HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol, and TG. TG-associated risk was higher among individuals in the low compared with the high 40-singlenucleotide polymorphism TG genetic risk score tertile (hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.98 [1.83-2.14] versus 1.68 [1.58-1.80] per mmol/L; P-interaction = 0.0007). In TG-adjusted analysis, large and medium but not small TG-rich lipoprotein particles were associated with higher T2DM incidence for successively lower 40-single-nucleotide polymorphism TG genetic risk score tertiles, P-interaction = 0.013, 0.012, and 0.620 across tertiles, respectively.Conclusions-Our results confirm the previous observations of the paradoxical associations of TG with T2DM while focusing attention on the larger TG-rich lipoprotein particle subfractions, suggesting their importance in clinical profiling of T2DM risk.
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| 8. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat, et al.
(författare)
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Gene Lifestyle Interactions With Relation to Obesity, Cardiometabolic, and Cardiovascular Traits Among South Asians
- 2019
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Endocrinology. - : FRONTIERS MEDIA SA. - 1664-2392. ; 10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rapid rise of obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) during the last few decades among South Asians has been largely attributed to a major shift in lifestyles including physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary patterns, and an overall pattern of sedentary lifestyle. Genetic predisposition to these cardiometabolic risk factors may have interacted with these obesogenic environments in determining the higher cardiometabolic disease prevalence. Based on the premise that gene-environment interactions cause obesity and cardiometabolic diseases, we systematically searched the literature and considered the knowledge gaps that future studies might ful fill. We identified only seven published studies that focused specifically on gene-environment interactions for cardiometabolic traits in South Asians, most of which were limited by relatively small sample and lack of replication. Some studies reported that the differences in metabolic response to higher physical activity and low caloric diet might be modified by genetic risk related to these cardiometabolic traits. Although studies on gene lifestyle interactions in cardiometabolic traits report significant interactions, future studies must focus on more precise assessment of lifestyle factors, investigation of a larger set of genetic variants and the application of powerful statistical methods to facilitate translatable approaches. Future studies should also be integrated with findings both using mechanistic studies through laboratory settings and randomized clinical trials for clinical outcomes.
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| 9. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat
(författare)
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Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors in the Development of Obesity
- 2015
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Lifestyle behaviors and genetic variation have clear and distinguishable effects on obesity risk; however, the pattern of disease occurrence within and between populations that differ in their genetic and environmental underpinnings suggests obesity is caused in part by the interaction between adverse lifestyle behaviors and the genetic risk profile of an individual. This thesis aims to investigate the joint effects of genetic and environmental (specifically lifestyle) risk factors for obesity and its comorbidities using cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials. Characterizing interactions may help optimize prevention and treatment strategies by identifying risk groups of people for targeted interventions. The work in this thesis was conducted in the cross-sectional European ancestry sample of 111,421 individuals from the GLACIER, MDC, INTER99, HEALTH2006, HPFS, NHS, WGHS, InterAct, MESTSIM, TwinGene cohorts (paper I), 14,131 Pakistani adults from the PROMIS cohort (paper II), 3,541 adult from the prospective GLACIER Study (paper III) and in 5,730 participants of the DPP and Look AHEAD clinical trial (paper IV). In paper I, we reported that physical activity, assessed by the Cambridge physical activity index, diminishes the genetic risk of obesity predisposed by 12 BMIassociated genetic variants (Pinteraction=0.015). In sensitivity analyses, the interaction was only evident in the Northern American (N= 39,810) but not the European (N= 71,611) cohorts. In paper II, by employing genomewide heterogeneity of variance approach in GWAS data in PROMIS study, we identified one locus, FLJ33534 rs140133294 that associated with variance of BMI (P-value of 3.1 x 10-8). In subsequent analysis the association of this locus on BMI was found to be significant modified by smoking (Pinteraction= 0.0005). In paper III, we a genetic risk score based upon 97 BMI-associated genetic variants was significantly associated with change in BMI (β=0.014 kg/m2 per allele per 10-year follow-up, SE= 0.006, P=0.015). Three of the BMI- loci (PARK2 rs13191362, C6orf106 rs205262, C9orf93 rs4740619) were individually significantly associated with 10 year change in BMI. In paper IV, we observed that lifestyle interventions modified the response of MTIF3 rs1885988 genetic variant to weight loss. In the meta-analyzed sample of DPP and Look AHEAD, each copy of the minor Gallele at MTIF3 rs1885988 was associated with weight loss across all four years of the lifestyle interventions (P= 2.4×10-3), while no association with weight loss was observed in the control arm (P= 0.11). In conclusion, this thesis work shows that gene-lifestyle interactions influence human weight maintenance on several levels, although the clinical relevance remains to be determined.
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| 10. |
- Ahmad, Shafqat, et al.
(författare)
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Physical activity, smoking, and genetic predisposition to obesity in people from Pakistan : the PROMIS study
- 2015
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Ingår i: BMC Medical Genetics. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2350. ; 16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Multiple genetic variants have been reliably associated with obesity-related traits in Europeans, but little is known about their associations and interactions with lifestyle factors in South Asians.Methods: In 16,157 Pakistani adults (8232 controls; 7925 diagnosed with myocardial infarction [MI]) enrolled in the PROMIS Study, we tested whether: a) BMI-associated loci, individually or in aggregate (as a genetic risk score - GRS), are associated with BMI; b) physical activity and smoking modify the association of these loci with BMI. Analyses were adjusted for age, age(2), sex, MI (yes/no), and population substructure.Results: Of 95 SNPs studied here, 73 showed directionally consistent effects on BMI as reported in Europeans. Each additional BMI-raising allele of the GRS was associated with 0.04 (SE = 0.01) kg/m(2) higher BMI (P = 4.5 x 10(-14)). We observed nominal evidence of interactions of CLIP1 rs11583200 (P-interaction = 0.014), CADM2 rs13078960 (P-interaction = 0.037) and GALNT10 rs7715256 (P-interaction = 0.048) with physical activity, and PTBP2 rs11165643 (P-interaction = 0.045), HIP1 rs1167827 (P-interaction = 0.015), C6orf106 rs205262 (P-interaction = 0.032) and GRID1 rs7899106 (P-interaction = 0.043) with smoking on BMI.Conclusions: Most BMI-associated loci have directionally consistent effects on BMI in Pakistanis and Europeans. There were suggestive interactions of established BMI-related SNPs with smoking or physical activity.
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