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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Dehghan, Abbas, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Heart Disease in Prospective Cohort Studies : The CHARGE Consortium
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Data are limited on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Moreover, it is not known whether genetic variants identified to date also associate with risk of CHD in a prospective setting. Methods We performed a two-stage GWAS analysis of incident myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD in a total of 64,297 individuals (including 3898 MI cases, 5465 CHD cases). SNPs that passed an arbitrary threshold of 5x10(-6) in Stage I were taken to Stage II for further discovery. Furthermore, in an analysis of prognosis, we studied whether known SNPs from former GWAS were associated with total mortality in individuals who experienced MI during follow-up. Results In Stage I 15 loci passed the threshold of 5x10(-6); 8 loci for MI and 8 loci for CHD, for which one locus overlapped and none were reported in previous GWAS meta-analyses. We took 60 SNPs representing these 15 loci to Stage II of discovery. Four SNPs near QKI showed nominally significant association with MI (p-value<8.8x10(-3)) and three exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold when Stage I and Stage II results were combined (top SNP rs6941513: p = 6.2x10(-9)). Despite excellent power, the 9p21 locus SNP (rs1333049) was only modestly associated with MI (HR = 1.09, p-value = 0.02) and marginally with CHD (HR = 1.06, p-value = 0.08). Among an inception cohort of those who experienced MI during follow-up, the risk allele of rs1333049 was associated with a decreased risk of subsequent mortality (HR = 0.90, p-value = 3.2x10(-3)). Conclusions QKI represents a novel locus that may serve as a predictor of incident CHD in prospective studies. The association of the 9p21 locus both with increased risk of first myocardial infarction and longer survival after MI highlights the importance of study design in investigating genetic determinants of complex disorders.
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| 3. |
- Sennblad, Bengt, et al.
(författare)
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Genome- wide association study with additional genetic and post-transcriptional analyses reveals novel regulators of plasma factor XI levels
- 2017
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Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 26:3, s. 637-649
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coagulation factor XI (FXI) has become increasingly interesting for its role in pathogenesis of thrombosis. While elevated plasma levels of FXI have been associated with venous thromboembolism and ischemic stroke, its deficiency is associated with mild bleeding. We aimed to determine novel genetic and post-transcriptional plasma FXI regulators. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for plasma FXI levels, using novel data imputed to the 1000 Genomes reference panel. Individual GWAS analyses, including a total of 16,169 European individuals from the ARIC, GHS, MARTHA and PROCARDIS studies, were meta-analysed and further replicated in 2,045 individuals from the F5L family, GAIT2 and MEGA studies. Additional association with activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) was tested for the top SNPs. In addition, a study on the effect of miRNA on FXI regulation was performed using in silico prediction tools and in vitro luciferase assays. Three loci showed robust, replicating association with circulating FXI levels: KNG1 (rs710446, P-value = 2.07 x 10(-302)), F11 (rs4253417, P-value = 2.86 x 10(-193)), and a novel association in GCKR (rs780094, P-value = 3.56 x 10(-09)), here for the first time implicated in FXI regulation. The two first SNPs (rs710446 and rs4253417) also associated with aPTT. Conditional and haplotype analyses demonstrated a complex association signal, with additional novel SNPs modulating plasma FXI levels in both the F11 and KNG1 loci. Finally, eight miRNAs were predicted to bind F11 mRNA. Over-expression of either miR-145 or miR-181 significantly reduced the luciferase activity in cells transfected with a plasmid containing FXI-3'UTR. These results should open the door to new therapeutic targets for thrombosis prevention.
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