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- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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- Burisch, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Disease course of inflammatory bowel disease unclassified in a European population-based inception cohort : an Epi-IBD study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0815-9319 .- 1440-1746. ; 34:6, s. 996-1003
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: A definitive diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) is not always possible and a proportion of patients will be diagnosed as inflammatory bowel disease unclassified (IBDU). The aim of the study was to investigate the prognosis of patients initially diagnosed with IBDU and the disease course during the following five years.METHODS: The Epi-IBD study is a prospective population-based cohort of 1,289 IBD patients diagnosed in centres across Europe. Clinical data were captured prospectively throughout the follow-up period.RESULTS: Overall, 476 (37%) patients were initially diagnosed with CD, 701 (54%) with UC, and 112 (9%) with IBDU. During follow-up, 28 (25%) IBDU patients were changed diagnoses to either UC (n=20, 71%) or CD (n=8, 29%) after a median of six months (IQR: 4-12), while 84 (7% of the total cohort) remained IBDU. A total of 17 (15%) IBDU patients were hospitalized for their IBD during follow-up, while 8 (7%) patients underwent surgery. Most surgeries (n=6, 75%) were performed on patients whose diagnosis was later changed to UC; three of these colectomies led to a definitive diagnosis of UC. Most patients (n=107, 96%) received 5-aminosalicylic acid, while 11 (10%) patients received biologicals, of whom five remained classified as IBDU.CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based inception cohort, 7% of IBD patients were not given a definitive diagnosis of IBD after five years of follow-up. One in four patients with IBDU eventually were classified as CD or UC. Overall, the disease course and medication burden in IBDU patients were mild.
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