| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Gerlee, Philip, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Scientific Models : Red Atoms, White Lies and Black Boxes in a Yellow Book
- 2016
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A zebrafish, the hull of a miniature ship, a mathematical equation and a food chain - what do these things have in common? They are examples of models used by scientists to isolate and study particular aspects of the world around us. This book begins by introducing the concept of a scientific model from an intuitive perspective, drawing parallels to mental models and artistic representations. It then recounts the history of modelling from the 16th century up until the present day. The iterative process of model building is described and discussed in the context of complex models with high predictive accuracy versus simpler models that provide more of a conceptual understanding. To illustrate the diversity of opinions within the scientific community, we also present the results of an interview study, in which ten scientists from different disciplines describe their views on modelling and how models feature in their work. Lastly, it includes a number of worked examples that span different modelling approaches and techniques. It provides a comprehensive introduction to scientific models and shows how models are constructed and used in modern science. It also addresses the approach to, and the culture surrounding modelling in different scientific disciplines. It serves as an inspiration for model building and also facilitates interdisciplinary collaborations by showing how models are used in different scientific fields. The book is aimed primarily at students in the sciences and engineering, as well as students at teacher training colleges but will also appeal to interested readers wanting to get an overview of scientific modelling in general and different modelling approaches in particular.
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| 13. |
- Gerlee, Philip, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Scientific Models
- 2016
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A zebrafish, the hull of a miniature ship, a mathematical equation and a food chain - what do these things have in common? They are examples of models used by scientists to isolate and study particular aspects of the world around us. This book begins by introducing the concept of a scientific model from an intuitive perspective, drawing parallels to mental models and artistic representations. It then recounts the history of modelling from the 16th century up until the present day. The iterative process of model building is described and discussed in the context of complex models with high predictive accuracy versus simpler models that provide more of a conceptual understanding. To illustrate the diversity of opinions within the scientific community, we also present the results of an interview study, in which ten scientists from different disciplines describe their views on modelling and how models feature in their work. Lastly, it includes a number of worked examples that span different modelling approaches and techniques. It provides a comprehensive introduction to scientific models and shows how models are constructed and used in modern science. It also addresses the approach to, and the culture surrounding modelling in different scientific disciplines. It serves as an inspiration for model building and also facilitates interdisciplinary collaborations by showing how models are used in different scientific fields. The book is aimed primarily at students in the sciences and engineering, as well as students at teacher training colleges but will also appeal to interested readers wanting to get an overview of scientific modelling in general and different modelling approaches in particular.
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| 14. |
- Vestin, Patrik, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of stump harvesting on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide fluxes
- 2022
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Ingår i: Iforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry. - : Italian Society of Sivilculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF). - 1971-7458. ; 15, s. 148-162
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During 2010-2013, we investigated the effects of stump harvesting on greenide (N2O) with the flux-gradient technique at four experimental plots in a hemiboreal forest in Sweden. All plots were clear-cut and soil scarified and two of the plots were additionally stump harvested. The two clear-cut plots served as control plots. Due to differences in topography, we had one wetter and one drier plot of each treatment. All plots exhibited substantial emissions of GHGs and we noted significant effects of wetness on CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes within treatments and significant effects of stump harvesting on CO2 and N2O fluxes at the dry plots. The CO2 emissions were lower at the dry stump harvested plot than at the dry control, but when estimated emissions from the removed stumps were added, total CO2 emissions were higher at the stump harvested plot, indicating a small enhancement of soil respiration. In addition, we noted significant emissions of N2O at this plot. At the wet plots, CO2 emissions were higher at the stump harvested plot, also suggesting a treatment effect but differences in wetness and vegetation cover at these plots make this effect more uncertain. At the wet plots, we noted sustained periods (weeks to months) of net N2O uptake. During the year with simultaneous measurements of the abovementioned GHGs, GHG budgets were 1.224??103 and 1.442??103 gm-2 of CO2-equivalents at the wet and dry stump harvested plots, respectively, and 1.070??103 and 1.696??103 gm-2 of CO2-equivalents at the wet and dry control plots, respectively. CO2 fluxes dominated GHG budgets at all plots but N2O contributed with 17% at the dry stump harvested plot. For the full period 2010-2013, total carbon (CO2+CH4) budgets were 4.301??103 and 4.114??103 g m-2 of CO2-eqvivalents at the wet and dry stump harvest plots, respectively and 4.107??103 and 5.274??103 gm-2 of CO2-equivalents at the wet and dry control plots, respectively. Our results support recent studies suggesting that stump harvesting does not result in substantial increase in CO2 emissions but uncertainties regarding GHG fluxes (especially N2O) remain and more long-term measurements are needed before robust conclusions can be drawn.
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| 15. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: Tree-level heterogeneity matters
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling and Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 51, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind is the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe's forest ecosystems. In recent years, disturbance frequency and severity have been increasing at continental scale, a trend that is expected to continue under future anthropogenic climate change. Disturbance management is thus increasingly important for sustainable stewardship of forests, and requires tools to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and climatic changes on disturbance risk and ecosystem services. We here present a process-based model of wind disturbance impacts on forest ecosystems, integrated into the dynamic landscape simulation model iLand. The model operates at the level of individual trees and simulates wind disturbance events iteratively, i.e., dynamically accounting for changes in forest structure and newly created edges during the course of a storm. Both upwind gap size and local shelter from neighboring trees are considered in this regard, and critical wind speeds for uprooting and stem breakage are distinguished. The simulated disturbance size, pattern, and severity are thus emergent properties of the model. We evaluated the new simulation tool against satellite-derived data on the impact of the storm Gudrun (January 2005) on a 1391 ha forest landscape in south central Sweden. Both the overall damage percentage (observation: 21.7%, simulation: 21.4%) as well as the comparison of spatial damage patterns showed good correspondence between observations and predictions (prediction accuracy: 60.4%) if the full satellite-derived structural and spatial heterogeneity of the landscape was taken into account. Neglecting within-stand heterogeneity in forest conditions, i.e., the state-of-the-art in many stand-level risk models, resulted in a considerable underestimation of simulated damage, supporting the notion that tree-level complexity matters for assessing and modeling large-scale disturbances. A sensitivity analysis further showed that changes in wind speed and soil freezing could have potentially large impacts on disturbed area and patch size. The model presented here is available as open source. It can be used to study the effects of different silvicultural systems and future climates on wind risk, as well as to quantify the impacts of wind disturbance on ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. It thus contributes to improving our capacity to address changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Ran, Ylva, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of public policy interventions for environmentally sustainable food consumption: a systematic map of available evidence
- 2024
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Ingår i: Environmental Evidence. - 2047-2382. ; 13
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The global food system is inflicting substantial environmental harm, necessitating a shift towards more environmentally sustainable food consumption practices. Policy interventions, for example, information campaigns, taxes and subsidies and changes in the choice context are essential to stimulate sustainable change, but their effectiveness in achieving environmental goals remains inadequately understood. Existing literature lacks a comprehensive synthesis of evidence on the role of public policies in promoting sustainable food consumption. Our systematic map addressed this gap by collecting and categorising research evidence on public policy interventions aimed at establishing environmentally sustainable food consumption patterns, in order to answer the primary research question: What evidence exists on the effects of public policy interventions for achieving environmentally sustainable food consumption?Methods Searches for relevant records (in English) were performed in WoS, Scopus, ASSIA, ProQuest Dissertation and Theses, EconLit, Google Scholar and in bibliographies of relevant reviews. A grey literature search was also performed on 28 specialist websites (searches were made in the original language of the webpages and publications in English, Swedish, Danish and Norwegian were eligible) and Google Scholar (search in English). Screening was performed at title/abstract and full-text levels, with machine learning-aided priority screening at title/abstract level. Eligibility criteria encompassed settings, interventions (public policies on sustainable food consumption), target groups and outcomes. No critical appraisal of study validity was conducted. Data coding covered bibliographic details, study characteristics, intervention types and outcomes. Evidence was categorised into intervention types and subcategories. Visual representation utilised bar plots, diagrams, heatmaps and an evidence atlas. This produced a comprehensive overview of effects of public policy interventions on sustainable food consumption patterns.Review findings The evidence base included 227 articles (267 interventions), with 92% of studies in high-income countries and only 4% in low-income countries. Quantitative studies dominated (83%), followed by mixed methods (16%) and qualitative studies (1%). Most interventions were information-based and 50% of reviewed studies looked at labels. Information campaigns/education interventions constituted 10% of the sample, and menu design changes and restriction/editing of choice context 8% each. Market-based interventions represented 13% of total interventions, of which two-thirds were taxes. Administrative interventions were rare (< 1%). Proxies for environmental impact (85%) were more frequent outcome measures than direct impacts (15%). Animal-source food consumption was commonly used (19%) for effects of interventions on, for example, greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies used stated preferences (61%) to evaluate interventions.Conclusions The literature assessing policies for sustainable food consumption is dominated by studies on non-intrusive policy instruments; labels, information campaigns, menu design changes and editing choice contexts. There is a strong need for research on sustainable food policies to leave the lab and enter the real world, which will require support and cooperation of public and private sector stakeholders. Impact evaluations of large-scale interventions require scaling-up of available research funding and stronger multidisciplinary research, including collaborations with industry and other societal actors. Future research in this field should also go beyond the European and North American context, to obtain evidence on how to counteract increasing environmental pressures from food consumption worldwide.
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| 18. |
- Omstedt, Anders, 1949
(författare)
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The Development of Climate Science of the Baltic Sea Region
- 2017
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Ingår i: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. - : Oxford University Press.
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Dramatic climate changes have occurred in the Baltic Sea region caused by changes in orbital movement in the earth–sun system and the melting of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. Added to these longer-term changes, changes have occurred at all timescales, caused mainly by variations in large-scale atmospheric pressure systems due to competition between the meandering midlatitude low-pressure systems and highpressure systems. Here we follow the development of climate science of the Baltic Sea from when observations began in the 18th century to the early 21st century. The question of why the water level is sinking around the Baltic Sea coasts could not be answered until the ideas of postglacial uplift and the thermal history of the earth were better understood in the 19th century and periodic behavior in climate related time series attracted scientific interest. Herring and sardine fishing successes and failures have led to investigations of fishery and climate change and to the realization that fisheries themselves have strongly negative effects on the marine environment, calling for international assessment efforts. Scientists later introduced the concept of regime shifts when interpreting their data, attributing these to various causes. The increasing amount of anoxic deep water in the Baltic Sea and eutrophication have prompted debate about what is natural and what is anthropogenic, and the scientific outcome of these debates now forms the basis of international management efforts to reduce nutrient leakage from land. The observed increase in atmospheric CO and its effects on global warming have focused the climate debate on trends and generated a series of international and regional assessments and research programs that have greatly improved our understanding of climate and environmental changes, bolstering the efforts of earth system science, in which both climate and environmental factors are analyzed together.
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| 19. |
- Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne, et al.
(författare)
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An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas
- 2015
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Ingår i: Climate Risk Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-0963. ; 7, s. 31-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2015 The Authors. The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend) against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG), soil and water, and people's perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from -3 to 3) in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid-rise, light coloured building design with large parks/green areas and trees near buildings.
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| 20. |
- Guo, Y. D., et al.
(författare)
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Identification of highly oxygenated organic molecules and their role in aerosol formation in the reaction of limonene with nitrate radical
- 2022
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 22:17, s. 11323-11346
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nighttime NO3-initiated oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) such as monoterpenes is important for the atmospheric formation and growth of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which has significant impact on climate, air quality, and human health. In such SOA formation and growth, highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOM) may be crucial, but their formation pathways and role in aerosol formation have yet to be clarified. Among monoterpenes, limonene is of particular interest for its high emission globally and high SOA yield. In this work, HOM formation in the reaction of limonene with nitrate radical (NO3) was investigated in the SAPHIR chamber (Simulation of Atmospheric PHotochemistry In a large Reaction chamber). About 280 HOM products were identified, grouped into 19 monomer families, 11 dimer families, and 3 trimer families. Both closed-shell products and open-shell peroxy radicals (RO2 center dot) 2 were observed, and many of them have not been reported previously. Monomers and dimers accounted for 47% and 47% of HOM concentrations, respectively, with trimers making up the remaining 6 %. In the most abundant monomer families, C10H15-17NO6-14, carbonyl products outnumbered hydroxyl products, indicating the importance of RO2 center dot termination by unimolecular dissociation. Both RO2 center dot autoxidation and alkoxy-peroxy pathways were found to be important processes leading to HOM. Time-dependent concentration profiles of monomer products containing nitrogen showed mainly second-generation formation patterns. Dimers were likely formed via the accretion reaction of two monomer RO2 center dot , and HOM-trimers via the accretion reaction between monomer RO2 center dot and dimer RO2 center dot. Trimers are suggested to play an important role in new particle formation (NPF) observed in our experiment. A HOM yield of 1.5%(+1.7%)(-0.7%) was estimated considering only first-generation products. SOA mass growth could be reasonably explained by HOM condensation on particles assuming irreversible uptake of ultra-low volatility organic compounds (ULVOCs), extremely low volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs), and low volatility organic compounds (LVOCs). This work provides evidence for the important role of HOM formed via the limonene +NO3 reaction in NPF and growth of SOA particles.
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