| 31. |
- Jonson, J. E., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of excess NOx emissions from diesel cars on air quality, public health and eutrophication in Europe
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 12:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diesel cars have been emitting four to seven times more NOx in on-road driving than in type approval tests. These 'excess emissions' are a consequence of deliberate design of the vehicle's after-treatment system, as investigations during the 'Dieselgate' scandal have revealed. Here we calculate health and environmental impacts of these excess NOx emissions in all European countries for the year 2013. We use national emissions reported officially under the UNECE Convention for Long-range Transport of Atmospheric Pollutants and employ the EMEP MSC-W Chemistry Transport Model and the GAINS Integrated AssessmentModel to determine atmospheric concentrations and resulting impacts. We compare with impacts from hypothetical emissions where light duty diesel vehicles are assumed to emit only as much as their respective type approval limit value or as little as petrol cars of the same age. Excess NO2 concentrations can also have direct health impacts, but these overlap with the impacts from particulate matter ( PM) and are not included here. We estimate that almost 10 000 premature deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in the adult population (age>30 years) can be attributed to the NOx emissions from diesel cars and light commercial vehicles in EU28 plus Norway and Switzerland in 2013. About 50% of these could have been avoided if diesel limits had been achieved also in on-road driving; and had diesel cars emitted as little NOx as petrol cars, 80% of these premature deaths could have been avoided. Ecosystem eutrophication impacts (critical load exceedances) from the same diesel vehicles would also have been reduced at similar rates as for the health effects.
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| 32. |
- Ottelin, Juudit, et al.
(författare)
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Household carbon footprint patterns by the degree of urbanisation in Europe
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 14:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urbanisation increases household carbon footprints in developing economies. However, the results from developed countries have varied, particularly in Europe. This study provides a coherent comparison of the impact of the degree of urbanisation on income, expenditure and carbon footprints in Europe. On average, carbon footprints are 7% lower in cities than in rural areas when income and household characteristics are controlled. However, this is compensated by the 6% higher average income in cities. The patterns are not uniform in all countries. In Eastern Europe, the pattern is similar to other developing regions. In some Western European countries, both the income level and the carbon footprints are lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In the rest of Europe, the differences in income level between rural and urban areas are small, but they still largely compensate for the efficiency benefits of urban areas. We call for more systemic emissions accounting and climate strategies.
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| 33. |
- Pai, Sandeep, et al.
(författare)
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Solar has greater techno-economic resource suitability than wind for replacing coal mining jobs
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coal mining directly employs over 7 million workers and benefits millions more through indirect jobs. However, to meet the 1.5 degrees C global climate target, coal's share in global energy supply should decline between 73% and 97% by 2050. But what will happen to coal miners as coal jobs disappear ?Answering this question is necessary to ensure a just transition and to ensure that politically powerful coal mining interests do not impede energy transitions. Some suggest that coal miners can transition to renewable jobs. However, prior research has not investigated the potential for renewable jobs to replace 'local' coal mining jobs. Historic analyses of coal industry declines show that coal miners do not migrate when they lose their jobs. By focusing on China, India, the US, and Australia, which represent 70% of global coal production, we investigate: (1) the local solar and wind capacity required in each coal mining area to enable all coal miners to transition to solar/wind jobs; (2) whether there are suitable solar and wind power resources in coal mining areas in order to install solar/wind plants and create those jobs; and (3) the scale of renewables deployment required to transition coal miners in areas suitable for solar/wind power. We find that with the exception of the US, several GWs of solar or wind capacity would be required in each coal mining area to transition all coal miners to solar/wind jobs. Moreover, while solar has more resource suitability than wind in coal mining areas, these resources are not available everywhere. In China, the country with the largest coal mining workforce, only 29% of coal mining areas are suitable for solar power. In all four countries, less than 7% of coal mining areas have suitable wind resources. Further, countries would have to scale-up their current solar capacity significantly to transition coal miners who work in areas suitable for solar development.
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| 34. |
- Pei, Lin, et al.
(författare)
-
Climate variability or anthropogenic emissions: which caused Beijing Haze?
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Beijing Haze has been phenomenal, especially for winter, and widely considered a result of the increasing anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the region. Since 2013, the pollutant emissions have been reduced with the help of a series of emission-control actions. However, severe haze events still occurred frequently in Beijing in recent winters, e.g., those of 2015 and 2016, implying that other factors such as meteorological conditions and interannual climate variability have also played an important role in forming the haze. Based on homogenized station observations, atmospheric circulation reanalysis and anthropogenic emissions data for the period 1980-2017, this paper attempts to quantify the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions and climatic conditions to the frequency and intensity of Beijing Haze in winter. It is found that the frequency (number) of hazy days exhibits large interannual variability and little trend, and its variations were mainly controlled by climate variability, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77. On the other hand, the intensity of haze displays strong interannual variability and a significant increasing trend during 1980-2012 and a notable decreasing trend during 2012-2017. The multiple linear regression model suggests that about half of the total variance of the haze intensity is explained by climate variability (mainly for interannual variations), and another half by the changing emissions (mainly for the trends).
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| 35. |
- Pendrill, Florence, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 14:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of-and possible connections between-forest loss and gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that countries that have undergone a forest transition (and are now increasing their forest cover) tend to displace land use outside their borders. However, lack of comprehensive data on deforestation drivers imply that it has not been possible to ascertain whether this has accelerated forest loss in sourcing countries. To remedy this, we present a land-balance model that quantifies deforestation embodied in production of agricultural and forestry commodities at country level across the tropics and subtropics, subsequently tracing embodied deforestation to countries of apparent consumption using a physical, country-to-country trade model. We find that in the period 2005-2013,62% (5.5 Mha yr(-1)) of forest loss could be attributed to expanding commercial cropland, pastures and tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with deforestation were cattle meat, forestry products, oil palm, cereals and soybeans, though variation between countries and regions was large. Alarge (26%) and slightly increasing share of deforestation was attributed to international demand, the bulk of which (87%) was exported to countries that either exhibit decreasing deforestation rates or increasing forest cover (late-or post-forest transition countries), particularly in Europe and Asia (China, India, and Russia). About a third of the net forest gains in post-forest transition countries was in this way offset by imports of commodities causing deforestation elsewhere, suggesting that achieving a global forest transition will be substantially more challenging than achieving national or regional ones.
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| 36. |
- Qi, W., et al.
(författare)
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Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Flooding in the Yangtze River Basin could severely damage socio-economic development, river ecosystems, food security, hydropower production and transportation in China. The Yangtze River Basin accounts for approximately 30% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and is an engine for the country's rapid economic growth. One commonly held belief is that climate change has intensified extreme flood events, leading to increasing economic damage in the Yangtze River. Here, we quantitatively attributed economic exposure to climate change (i.e. climate-induced changes in weather-related events) and GDP growth, and assessed benefits, i.e. the reduction in economic exposure, from flood defence dikes of varying heights. To do this, we developed a framework by combing a large scale hydrological model, a hydraulic model, and long-term GDP data. We find that climate-induced changes in flood inundation area and resulted economic exposure were decreasing overall, whereas GDP growth drove the increases of potential economic exposure to floods. We also reveal that the basin average flood defence dikes should be at least approximately 3.5 m high to achieve an about ten-year average flood occurrence. Our results have significant policy and socioeconomic development implications. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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| 37. |
- Smith, A., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for the effectiveness of nature-based solutions to water issues in Africa
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is increasing global interest in employing nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and wetland restoration, to help reduce water risks to economies and society, including water pollution, floods, droughts and water scarcity, that are likely to become worse under future climates. Africa is exposed to many such water risks. Nature-based solutions for adaptation should be designed to benefit biodiversity and can also provide multiple co-benefits, such as carbon sequestration. A systematic review of over 10 000 publications revealed 150 containing 492 quantitative case studies related to the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for downstream water quantity and water quality (including sediment load) in Africa. The solutions assessed included landscape-scale interventions and patterns (forests and natural wetlands) and site-specific interventions (constructed wetlands and urban interventions e.g. soakaways). Consistent evidence was found that nature-based solutions can improve water quality. In contrast, evidence of their effectiveness for improving downstream water resource quantity was inconsistent, with most case studies showing a decline in water yield where forests (particularly plantations of non-native species) and wetlands are present. The evidence further suggests that restoration of forests and floodplain wetlands can reduce flood risk, and their conservation can prevent future increases in risk; in contrast, this is not the case for headwater wetlands. Potential trade-offs identified include nature-based solutions reducing flood risk and pollution, whilst decreasing downstream water resource quantity. The evidence provides a scientific underpinning for policy and planning for nature-based solutions to water-related risks in Africa, though implementation will require local knowledge. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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| 38. |
- Sterner, Erik, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on emission metrics
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 12:3, s. 034019-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Climate-Carbon cycle Feedback (CCF) affects emission metric values. In the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change metric values for Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature Potentials (GTP) are reported both with and without CCF for non-CO2 climate forcers, while CCF is always included for CO2. The estimation of CCF for non-CO2 climate forcers in AR5 is based on a linear feedback analysis. This study compares that approach with an explicit approach that uses a temperature dependent carbon cycle model. The key difference in the CCF results for non-CO2 climate forcers is that, with the approach used in AR5, a fraction of the CO2 signal induced by non-CO2 forcers will persist in the atmosphere basically forever, while, with the approach based on an explicit carbon cycle model, the atmospheric CO2 signal induced by non-CO2 forcers eventually vanishes. The differences in metric values between the two model approaches are within +/- 10% for all well-mixed greenhouse gases when the time horizon is limited to 100 yr or less, for both GWP and GTP. However, for long time horizons, such as 500 yr, metric values are substantially lower with the explicit CCF model than with the linear feedback approach, up to 30% lower for GWP and up to 90% lower for GTP.
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| 39. |
- Taljegård, Maria, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of electric vehicles on the cost-competitiveness of generation and storage technologies in the electricity system
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 14:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increasing levels of variable renewable electricity (VRE) generation-such as wind and solar power-will create important opportunities for the charging of electric vehicle (EV) batteries during low-cost hours with a lot of VRE generation and for the discharge of EV batteries back to the grid (i.e. vehicle-to-grid; V2G) during high-cost hours. This study investigates how different EV charging strategies influence the cost-competitiveness of generation and storage technologies other than EV batteries in the electricity system, using a regional electricity system investment and dispatch model. The charging requirements of the EVs, which are used as an input to the optimisation model, are derived from the yearly driving patterns of 426 vehicles measured with global positioning system. The study is carried out for four regions in Europe with different conditions for wind, solar and hydro power generation. The results show that optimised EV charging with V2G can: (i) reduce investments in peak power capacity in all the regions investigated; (ii) reduce the need for short-term and long-term storage technologies other than EV batteries (i.e. stationary batteries and hydrogen storage); and (iii) stimulate increased shares of solar and wind power generation, as compared to direct charging in some regions (mainly Hungary). This study also shows that EV battery capacities as low as 30 kWh, which are connected to the grid only at their home location, can to a large extent contribute with flexibility to the electricity system in the way mentioned. The present study also investigates the influences of different shares of the fleet participating in V2G, and shows that the additional benefits for the electricity system level off when approximately 24% of the vehicle fleet participates in V2G.
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| 40. |
- Vuorinen, Katariina E.M., et al.
(författare)
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Growth rings show limited evidence for ungulates' potential to suppress shrubs across the Arctic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming has pronounced effects on tundra vegetation, and rising mean temperatures increase plant growth potential across the Arctic biome. Herbivores may counteract the warming impacts by reducing plant growth, but the strength of this effect may depend on prevailing regional climatic conditions. To study how ungulates interact with temperature to influence growth of tundra shrubs across the Arctic tundra biome, we assembled dendroecological data from 20 sites, comprising 1153 individual shrubs and 223 63 annual growth rings. Evidence for ungulates suppressing shrub radial growth was only observed at intermediate summer temperatures (6.5 °C-9 °C), and even at these temperatures the effect was not strong. Multiple factors, including forage preferences and landscape use by the ungulates, and favourable climatic conditions enabling effective compensatory growth of shrubs, may weaken the effects of ungulates on shrubs, possibly explaining the weakness of observed ungulate effects. Earlier local studies have shown that ungulates may counteract the impacts of warming on tundra shrub growth, but we demonstrate that ungulates' potential to suppress shrub radial growth is not always evident, and may be limited to certain climatic conditions.
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