| 11. |
- Gasparrini, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
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| 12. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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| 13. |
- Henschel, Susann, et al.
(författare)
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Air pollution interventions and their impact on public health
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - Basel : Birkhäuser Verlag. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 57:5, s. 757-768
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: Numerous epidemiological studies have found a link between air pollution and health. We are reviewing a collection of published intervention studies with particular focus on studies assessing both improvements in air quality and associated health effects. METHODS: Interventions, defined as events aimed at reducing air pollution or where reductions occurred as a side effect, e.g. strikes, German reunification, from the 1960s onwards were considered for inclusion. This review is not a complete record of all existing air pollution interventions. In total, 28 studies published in English were selected based on a systematic search of internet databases. RESULTS: Overall air pollution interventions have succeeded at improving air quality. Consistently published evidence suggests that most of these interventions have been associated with health benefits, mainly by the way of reduced cardiovascular and/or respiratory mortality and/or morbidity. The decrease in mortality from the majority of the reviewed interventions has been estimated to exceed the expected predicted figures based on the estimates from time-series studies. CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence that decreased air pollution levels following an intervention resulted in health benefits for the assessed population.
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| 14. |
- Huyghe, Jeroen R, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic architectures of proximal and distal colorectal cancer are partly distinct
- 2021
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 70:7, s. 1325-1334
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical for improving precision prevention, including individualized screening recommendations and the discovery of novel drug targets and repurposable drug candidates for chemoprevention. Known differences in molecular characteristics and environmental risk factors among tumors arising in different locations of the colorectum suggest partly distinct mechanisms of carcinogenesis. The extent to which the contribution of inherited genetic risk factors for CRC differs by anatomical subsite of the primary tumor has not been examined.Design: To identify new anatomical subsite-specific risk loci, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses including data of 48 214 CRC cases and 64 159 controls of European ancestry. We characterised effect heterogeneity at CRC risk loci using multinomial modelling.Results: We identified 13 loci that reached genome-wide significance (p<5×10-8) and that were not reported by previous GWASs for overall CRC risk. Multiple lines of evidence support candidate genes at several of these loci. We detected substantial heterogeneity between anatomical subsites. Just over half (61) of 109 known and new risk variants showed no evidence for heterogeneity. In contrast, 22 variants showed association with distal CRC (including rectal cancer), but no evidence for association or an attenuated association with proximal CRC. For two loci, there was strong evidence for effects confined to proximal colon cancer.Conclusion: Genetic architectures of proximal and distal CRC are partly distinct. Studies of risk factors and mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and precision prevention strategies should take into consideration the anatomical subsite of the tumour.
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| 15. |
- Lapostolle, Frédéric, et al.
(författare)
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Morphine and Ticagrelor Interaction in Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction : ATLANTIC-Morphine
- 2019
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Ingår i: American Journal of Cardiovascular Drugs. - Auckland, New Zealand : Adis International Ltd.. - 1175-3277 .- 1179-187X. ; 19, s. 173-183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Morphine adversely impacts the action of oral adenosine diphosphate (ADP)-receptor blockers in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients, and is possibly associated with differing patient characteristics. This retrospective analysis investigated whether interaction between morphine use and pre-percutaneous coronary intervention (pre-PCI) ST-segment elevation resolution in STEMI patients in the ATLANTIC study was associated with differences in patient characteristics and management.METHODS: ATLANTIC was an international, multicenter, randomized study of treatment in the acute ambulance/hospital setting where STEMI patients received ticagrelor 180 mg ± morphine. Patient characteristics, cardiovascular history, risk factors, management, and outcomes were recorded.RESULTS: Opioids (97.6% morphine) were used in 921 out of 1862 patients (49.5%). There were no significant differences in age, sex or cardiovascular history, but more morphine-treated patients had anterior myocardial infarction and left-main disease. Time from chest pain to electrocardiogram and ticagrelor loading was shorter with morphine (both p = 0.01) but not total ischemic time. Morphine-treated patients more frequently received glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (p = 0.002), thromboaspiration and stent implantation (both p < 0.001). No significant difference between the two groups was found regarding pre-PCI ≥ 70% ST-segment elevation resolution, death, myocardial infarction, stroke, urgent revascularization and definitive acute stent thrombosis. More morphine-treated patients had an absence of pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) 3 flow (85.8% vs. 79.7%; p = 0.001) and more had TIMI major bleeding (1.1% vs. 0.1%; p = 0.02).CONCLUSIONS: Morphine-treatment was associated with increased GP IIb/IIIa inhibitor use, less pre-PCI TIMI 3 flow, and more bleeding. Judicious morphine use is advised with non-opioid analgesics preferred for non-severe acute pain.TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01347580.
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| 16. |
- Lee, Jae Young, et al.
(författare)
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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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| 17. |
- McNabb, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Meta-analysis of 16 studies of the association of alcohol with colorectal cancer
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 146:3, s. 861-873
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, while studies have consistently reported elevated risk of CRC among heavy drinkers, associations at moderate levels of alcohol consumption are less clear. We conducted a combined analysis of 16 studies of CRC to examine the shape of the alcohol-CRC association, investigate potential effect modifiers of the association, and examine differential effects of alcohol consumption by cancer anatomic site and stage. We collected information on alcohol consumption for 14,276 CRC cases and 15,802 controls from 5 case-control and 11 nested case-control studies of CRC. We compared adjusted logistic regression models with linear and restricted cubic splines to select a model that best fit the association between alcohol consumption and CRC. Study-specific results were pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Compared to non-/occasional drinking (<= 1 g/day), light/moderate drinking (up to 2 drinks/day) was associated with a decreased risk of CRC (odds ratio [OR]: 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.98, p = 0.005), heavy drinking (2-3 drinks/day) was not significantly associated with CRC risk (OR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.99-1.24, p = 0.08) and very heavy drinking (more than 3 drinks/day) was associated with a significant increased risk (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.11-1.40, p < 0.001). We observed no evidence of interactions with lifestyle risk factors or of differences by cancer site or stage. These results provide further evidence that there is a J-shaped association between alcohol consumption and CRC risk. This overall pattern was not significantly modified by other CRC risk factors and there was no effect heterogeneity by tumor site or stage.
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| 18. |
- Michelozzi, Paola, et al.
(författare)
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High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.
- 2009
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Ingår i: American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine. - 1535-4970. ; 179:5, s. 383-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- RATIONALE: Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS: For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.
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| 19. |
- Montalescot, Gilles, et al.
(författare)
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Prehospital Ticagrelor in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction
- 2014
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 371:11, s. 1016-1027
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND The direct-acting platelet P2Y(12) receptor antagonist ticagrelor can reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events when administered at hospital admission to patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Whether prehospital administration of ticagrelor can improve coronary reperfusion and the clinical outcome is unknown. METHODS We conducted an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind study involving 1862 patients with ongoing STEMI of less than 6 hours duration, comparing prehospital (in the ambulance) versus in-hospital (in the catheterization laboratory) treatment with ticagrelor. The coprimary end points were the proportion of patients who did not have a 70% or greater resolution of ST-segment elevation before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and the proportion of patients who did not have Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow grade 3 in the infarct-related artery at initial angiography. Secondary end points included the rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and definite stent thrombosis at 30 days. RESULTS The median time from randomization to angiography was 48 minutes, and the median time difference between the two treatment strategies was 31 minutes. The two coprimary end points did not differ significantly between the prehospital and in-hospital groups. The absence of ST-segment elevation resolution of 70% or greater after PCI (a secondary end point) was reported for 42.5% and 47.5% of the patients, respectively. The rates of major adverse cardiovascular events did not differ significantly between the two study groups. The rates of definite stent thrombosis were lower in the prehospital group than in the in-hospital group (0% vs. 0.8% in the first 24 hours; 0.2% vs. 1.2% at 30 days). Rates of major bleeding events were low and virtually identical in the two groups, regardless of the bleeding definition used. CONCLUSIONS Prehospital administration of ticagrelor in patients with acute STEMI appeared to be safe but did not improve pre-PCI coronary reperfusion.
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| 20. |
- Tavenier, Anne H., et al.
(författare)
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Efficacy and Safety of Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa Inhibitors on Top of Ticagrelor in STEMI: A Subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial
- 2020
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Ingår i: Thrombosis and Haemostasis. - : GEORG THIEME VERLAG KG. - 0340-6245 .- 2567-689X. ; 120:1, s. 65-74
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (GPIs) in combination with clopidogrel improve clinical outcome in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI); however, finding a balance that minimizes both thrombotic and bleeding risk remains fundamental. The efficacy and safety of GPI in addition to ticagrelor, a more potent P2Y12-inhibitor, have not been fully investigated. Methods 1,630 STEMI patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were analyzed in this subanalysis of the ATLANTIC trial. Patients were divided in three groups: no GPI, GPI administration routinely before primary PCI, and GPI administration in bailout situations. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of death, myocardial infarction, urgent target revascularization, and definite stent thrombosis at 30 days. The safety outcome was non-coronary artery bypass graft (CABG)-related PLATO major bleeding at 30 days. Results Compared with no GPI ( n = 930), routine GPI ( n = 525) or bailout GPI ( n = 175) was not associated with an improved primary efficacy outcome (4.2% no GPI vs. 4.0% routine GPI vs. 6.9% bailout GPI; p = 0.58). After multivariate analysis, the use of GPI in bailout situations was associated with a higher incidence of non-CABG-related bleeding compared with no GPI (odds ratio [OR] 2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-6.64; p = 0.03). However, routine GPI use compared with no GPI was not associated with a significant increase in bleeding (OR 1.78, 95% CI 0.88-3.61; p = 0.92). Conclusion Use of GPIs in addition to ticagrelor in STEMI patients was not associated with an improvement in 30-day ischemic outcome. A significant increase in 30-day non-CABG-related PLATO major bleeding was seen in patients who received GPIs in a bailout situation.
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