| 11. |
- Harrison, Paula A., et al.
(författare)
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Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 24:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature's contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature's contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Johnston, Jennifer J., et al.
(författare)
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Molecular Analysis Expands the Spectrum of Phenotypes Associated with GLI3 Mutations
- 2010
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Ingår i: Human Mutation. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1059-7794. ; 31:10, s. 1142-1154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A range of phenotypes including Greig cephalopolysyndactyly and Pallister-Hall syndromes (GCPS, PHS) are caused by pathogenic mutation of the GLI3 gene. To characterize the clinical variability of GLI3 mutations, we present a subset of a cohort of 174 probands referred for GLI3 analysis. Eighty-one probands with typical GCPS or PHS were previously reported, and we report the remaining 93 probands here. This includes 19 probands (12 mutations) who fulfilled clinical criteria for GCPS or PHS, 48 probands (16 mutations) with features of GCPS or PHS but who did not meet the clinical criteria (sub-GCPS and sub-PHS), 21 probands (6 mutations) with features of PHS or GCPS and oral-facial- digital syndrome, and 5 probands (1 mutation) with nonsyndromic polydactyly. These data support previously identified genotype-phenotype correlations and demonstrate a more variable degree of severity than previously recognized. The finding of GLI3 mutations in patients with features of oral-facial-digital syndrome supports the observation that GLI3 interacts with cilia. We conclude that the phenotypic spectrum of GLI3 mutations is broader than that encompassed by the clinical diagnostic criteria, but the genotype-phenotype correlation persists. Individuals with features of either GCPS or PHS should be screened for mutations in GLI3 even if they do not fulfill clinical criteria. Hum Mutat 31:1142-1154, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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| 14. |
- Kang, Bong Joo, et al.
(författare)
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Rim Sign in Breast Lesions on Diffusion-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging: Diagnostic Accuracy and Clinical Usefulness
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Magnetic Resonance Imaging. - : Wiley. - 1522-2586 .- 1053-1807. ; 41:3, s. 616-623
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeTo investigate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical usefulness of the rim sign in breast lesions observed in diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI). Materials and MethodsThe magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of 98 pathologically confirmed lesions (62 malignant and 36 benign) in 84 patients were included. Five breast radiologists were asked to independently review the breast MRI results, to grade the degree of high peripheral signal, the rim sign, in the DWI, and to confirm the mean apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC(mean)) values. We analyzed the diagnostic accuracy and compared the consensus (when 4 of 5 independent reviewers agreed) results of the rim sign with the ADC(mean) values. Additionally, we evaluated the correlation between the dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI morphologic appearance and DWI rim sign. ResultsAccording to the consensus results, the rim sign in DWI was observed on 59.7% of malignant lesions and 19.4% of benign lesions. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) value for the rim sign in DWI were 59.7%, 80.6%, and 0.701, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC value for the ADC(mean) value (criteria 1.46 x 10(-3) mm(2)/sec) were 82.3%, 63.9%, and 0.731, respectively. Based on consensus, no correlation was observed between the DCE-MRI and DWI rim signs. ConclusionIn DWI, a high-signal rim is a valuable morphological feature for improving specificity in DWI. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2015;41:616-623. (c) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 18. |
- Ohuma, Eric O., et al.
(författare)
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National, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth in 2020, with trends from 2010: a systematic analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 402, s. 1261-1271
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality and is associated with long-term physical, neurodevelopmental, and socioeconomic effects. This study updated national preterm birth rates and trends, plus novel estimates by gestational age subgroups, to inform progress towards global health goals and targets, and aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth for 2020 in addition to trends between 2010 and 2020. Methods: We systematically searched population-based, nationally representative data on preterm birth from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2020 and study data (26 March–14 April, 2021) for countries and areas with no national-level data. The analysis included 679 data points (86% nationally representative administrative data [582 of 679 data points]) from 103 countries and areas (62% of countries and areas having nationally representative administrative data [64 of 103 data points]). A Bayesian hierarchical regression was used for estimating country-level preterm rates, which incoporated country-specific intercepts, low birthweight as a covariate, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on a data quality categorisation, and other indicators such as method of gestational age estimation. Findings: An estimated 13·4 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 12·3–15·2 million) newborn babies were born preterm (<37 weeks) in 2020 (9·9% of all births [95% CrI 9·1–11·2]) compared with 13·8 million (12·7–15·5 million) in 2010 (9·8% of all births [9·0–11·0]) worldwide. The global annual rate of reduction was estimated at –0·14% from 2010 to 2020. In total, 55·6% of total livebirths are in southern Asia (26·8% [36 099 000 of 134 767 000]) and sub-Saharan Africa (28·7% [38 819 300 of 134 767 000]), yet these two regions accounted for approximately 65% (8 692 000 of 13 376 200) of all preterm births globally in 2020. Of the 33 countries and areas in the highest data quality category, none were in southern Asia or sub-Saharan Africa compared with 94% (30 of 32 countries) in high-income countries and areas. Worldwide from 2010 to 2020, approximately 15% of all preterm births occurred at less than 32 weeks of gestation, requiring more neonatal care (<28 weeks: 4·2%, 95% CI 3·1–5·0, 567 800 [410 200–663 200 newborn babies]); 28–32 weeks: 10·4% [9·5–10·6], 1 392 500 [1 274 800–1 422 600 newborn babies]). Interpretation: There has been no measurable change in preterm birth rates over the last decade at global level. Despite increasing facility birth rates and substantial focus on routine health data systems, there remain many missed opportunities to improve preterm birth data. Gaps in national routine data for preterm birth are most marked in regions of southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, which also have the highest estimated burden of preterm births. Countries need to prioritise programmatic investments to prevent preterm birth and to ensure evidence-based quality care when preterm birth occurs. Investments in improving data quality are crucial so that preterm birth data can be improved and used for action and accountability processes. Funding: The Children's Investment Fund Foundation and the UNDP, United Nations Population Fund-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.
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| 19. |
- Ohuma, Eric O., et al.
(författare)
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National, Regional, and Global Estimates of Preterm Birth in 2020, With Trends From 2010: A Systematic Analysis
- 2024
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Ingår i: OBSTETRICAL & GYNECOLOGICAL SURVEY. - 0029-7828 .- 1533-9866. ; 79:4, s. 195-197
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- (Abstracted from Lancet 2023;402:1261-1271 Birth before 37 weeks of gestation is classified as preterm birth (PTB) and represents the highest contributor to neonatal mortality, including both short- and long-term effects. Adverse effects of PTB include higher risks of poor health, poor growth, intellectual or mental disability, early onset of chronic disease, and others.
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| 20. |
- Pick, Cari M., et al.
(författare)
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Fundamental social motives measured across forty-two cultures in two waves
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Nature. - 2052-4463. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How does psychology vary across human societies? The fundamental social motives framework adopts an evolutionary approach to capture the broad range of human social goals within a taxonomy of ancestrally recurring threats and opportunities. These motives-self-protection, disease avoidance, affiliation, status, mate acquisition, mate retention, and kin care-are high in fitness relevance and everyday salience, yet understudied cross-culturally. Here, we gathered data on these motives in 42 countries (N = 15,915) in two cross-sectional waves, including 19 countries (N = 10,907) for which data were gathered in both waves. Wave 1 was collected from mid-2016 through late 2019 (32 countries, N = 8,998; 3,302 male, 5,585 female; M-age = 24.43, SD = 7.91). Wave 2 was collected from April through November 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic (29 countries, N = 6,917; 2,249 male, 4,218 female; M-age = 28.59, SD = 11.31). These data can be used to assess differences and similarities in people's fundamental social motives both across and within cultures, at different time points, and in relation to other commonly studied cultural indicators and outcomes.
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