| 51. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 52. |
- Noutsos, A., et al.
(författare)
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Radio and γ-ray constraints on the emission geometry and birthplace of PSR j2043+2740
- 2011
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 728:2, s. 77-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the first year of Fermi γ-ray observations of pulsed high-energy emission from the old PSR J2043 + 2740. The study of the γ-ray efficiency of such old pulsars gives us an insight into the evolution of pulsars' ability to emit in γ rays as they age. The y-ray light curve of this pulsar above 0.1 GeV is clearly defined by two sharp peaks, 0.353 ± 0.035 periods apart. We have combined the γ-ray profile characteristics of PSR J2043 + 2740 with the geometrical properties of the pulsar's radio emission, derived from radio-polarization data, and constrained the pulsar-beam geometry in the framework of a two-pole caustic (TPC) and an outer gap (OG) model. The ranges of magnetic inclination and viewing angle were determined to be {α, ζ} ∼ {52°-57°, 61°-68°} for the TPC model, and {α, ζ} ∼ {62°-73°, 74°-81°} and {α, ζ,} ∼ {72°-83°, 60°-75°} for the OG model. Based on this geometry, we assess possible birth locations for this pulsar and derive a likely proper motion, sufficiently high to be measurable with VLBI. At a characteristic age of 1.2 Myr, PSR J2043 + 2740 is the third oldest of all discovered, non-recycled, γ-ray pulsars: it is twice as old as the next oldest, PSR J0357 + 32, and younger only than the recently discovered PSR J1836 + 5925 and PSR J2055 + 25, both of which are at least five and ten times less energetic, respectively.
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| 53. |
- Abdo, A. A., et al.
(författare)
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Gamma-Ray Flares from the Crab Nebula
- 2011
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 331:6018, s. 739-742
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A young and energetic pulsar powers the well-known Crab Nebula. Here, we describe two separate gamma-ray (photon energy greater than 100 mega-electron volts) flares from this source detected by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. The first flare occurred in February 2009 and lasted approximately 16 days. The second flare was detected in September 2010 and lasted approximately 4 days. During these outbursts, the gamma-ray flux from the nebula increased by factors of four and six, respectively. The brevity of the flares implies that the gamma rays were emitted via synchrotron radiation from peta-electron-volt (10(15) electron volts) electrons in a region smaller than 1.4 x 10(-2) parsecs. These are the highest-energy particles that can be associated with a discrete astronomical source, and they pose challenges to particle acceleration theory.
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| 54. |
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Modulated High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from the Microquasar Cygnus X-3
- 2009
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 326:5959, s. 1512-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microquasars are accreting black holes or neutron stars in binary systems with associated relativistic jets. Despite their frequent outburst activity, they have never been unambiguously detected emitting high-energy gamma rays. The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has detected a variable high-energy source coinciding with the position of the x-ray binary and microquasar Cygnus X-3. Its identification with Cygnus X-3 is secured by the detection of its orbital period in gamma rays, as well as the correlation of the LAT flux with radio emission from the relativistic jets of Cygnus X-3. The gamma-ray emission probably originates from within the binary system, opening new areas in which to study the formation of relativistic jets.
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| 55. |
- Abdo, A. A., et al.
(författare)
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Detection of 16 Gamma-Ray Pulsars Through Blind Frequency Searches Using the Fermi LAT
- 2009
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 325:5942, s. 840-844
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pulsars are rapidly rotating, highly magnetized neutron stars emitting radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. Although there are more than 1800 known radio pulsars, until recently only seven were observed to pulse in gamma rays, and these were all discovered at other wavelengths. The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) makes it possible to pinpoint neutron stars through their gamma-ray pulsations. We report the detection of 16 gamma-ray pulsars in blind frequency searches using the LAT. Most of these pulsars are coincident with previously unidentified gamma-ray sources, and many are associated with supernova remnants. Direct detection of gamma-ray pulsars enables studies of emission mechanisms, population statistics, and the energetics of pulsar wind nebulae and supernova remnants.
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| 56. |
- Ackermann, M., et al.
(författare)
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A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO RECOGNIZING SOURCE CLASSES FOR UNASSOCIATED SOURCES IN THE FIRST FERMI-LAT CATALOG
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 753:1, s. 83-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) First Source Catalog (1FGL) provided spatial, spectral, and temporal properties for a large number of gamma-ray sources using a uniform analysis method. After correlating with the most-complete catalogs of source types known to emit gamma rays, 630 of these sources are unassociated (i.e., have no obvious counterparts at other wavelengths). Here, we employ two statistical analyses of the primary gamma-ray characteristics for these unassociated sources in an effort to correlate their gamma-ray properties with the active galactic nucleus (AGN) and pulsar populations in 1FGL. Based on the correlation results, we classify 221 AGN-like and 134 pulsar-like sources in the 1FGL unassociated sources. The results of these source classifications appear to match the expected source distributions, especially at high Galactic latitudes. While useful for planning future multiwavelength follow-up observations, these analyses use limited inputs, and their predictions should not be considered equivalent to probable source classes for these sources. We discuss multiwavelength results and catalog cross-correlations to date, and provide new source associations for 229 Fermi-LAT sources that had no association listed in the 1FGL catalog. By validating the source classifications against these new associations, we find that the new association matches the predicted source class in similar to 80% of the sources.
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| 57. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(författare)
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Global Climate : in State of the climate in 2019
- 2020
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8, s. S17-S127
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 58. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(författare)
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GLOBAL CLIMATE
- 2020
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Ingår i: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 59. |
- Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, et al.
(författare)
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The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases
- 2007
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Ingår i: Eur J Epidemiol. - 0393-2990. ; 22:12, s. 839-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.
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| 60. |
- Feroci, M., et al.
(författare)
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The Large Observatory for X-ray Timing (LOFT)
- 2012
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Ingår i: Experimental Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0922-6435 .- 1572-9508. ; 34:2, s. 415-444
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-time-resolution X-ray observations of compact objects provide direct access to strong-field gravity, to the equation of state of ultradense matter and to black hole masses and spins. A 10 m(2)-class instrument in combination with good spectral resolution is required to exploit the relevant diagnostics and answer two of the fundamental questions of the European Space Agency (ESA) Cosmic Vision Theme "Matter under extreme conditions", namely: does matter orbiting close to the event horizon follow the predictions of general relativity? What is the equation of state of matter in neutron stars? The Large Observatory For X-ray Timing (LOFT), selected by ESA as one of the four Cosmic Vision M3 candidate missions to undergo an assessment phase, will revolutionise the study of collapsed objects in our galaxy and of the brightest supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei. Thanks to an innovative design and the development of large-area monolithic silicon drift detectors, the Large Area Detector (LAD) on board LOFT will achieve an effective area of similar to 12 m(2) (more than an order of magnitude larger than any spaceborne predecessor) in the 2-30 keV range (up to 50 keV in expanded mode), yet still fits a conventional platform and small/medium-class launcher. With this large area and a spectral resolution of < 260 eV, LOFT will yield unprecedented information on strongly curved spacetimes and matter under extreme conditions of pressure and magnetic field strength.
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