| 16111. |
- Maican, Florin G., 1975
(författare)
-
Two Essays in Empirical Finance: Unit-Root Testing in the Presence of Structural Breaks
- 2008
-
Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Essay 1: Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in European Transition Countries Essay 1 presents unit-root test results for real exchange rates in ten Central and Eastern European transition countries relative to the Euro during 1993:01-2005:12. Because of the shift from controlled to market economies and the accompanying crises, failed policy regimes and changes in exchange rate regimes, appropriate tests in transition countries require allowing for both structural changes and outliers. Single-equation tests reject the unit-root null for nine of ten countries. Accounting for structural breaks (and in some cases, outliers) gives much faster mean-reversion speeds than otherwise. Essay 2: Size and Power in a Battery of Unit-Root Tests Essay 2 studies the overall size of a battery of unit-root tests containing multiple alternative hypotheses and also studies the power of the tests in the battery. Under the unit-root null, the probability of no rejections in a battery of five tests, where the size of each is 5%, the size of the battery of tests is approximately 17%. Simulations for power show that generally a particular model is much more likely to reject if that model corresponds to the underlying DGP than otherwise. The paper guides the researcher in using a battery of tests. If the researcher tests the unit-root null against only a single alternative, but misspecifies the alternative, the probability of a Type II error is substantial. Use of multiple series mitigates the effect on size of using a battery of tests.
|
|
| 16112. |
|
|
| 16113. |
- Maio, Paulo, et al.
(författare)
-
On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?
- 2023
-
Ingår i: JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE. - 0927-5398 .- 1879-1727. ; 74
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We estimate variance decompositions of the real exchange rate (q) for 19 currencies based on a present-value relation. At very short horizons, the driving force of q is predictability of the future exchange rate. At long horizons, return predictability drives most variation in q, with predictability of interest differentials playing a secondary role. This pattern is especially strong for the Non-G10 currencies. However, the long-run predictability mix associated with the Japanese Yen clearly deviates from the other currencies and is unstable over time. The quantitative simulation of a liquidity-based exchange rate model largely replicates our main empirical findings.
|
|
| 16114. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
-
Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
- 2020
-
Ingår i: American Economic Review. - : American Economic Association. - 0002-8282.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of U.S. politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 U.S. presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains—meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views—and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the FOX News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority white population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population become more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted towards the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.
|
|
| 16115. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
-
International Import Competition and the Decision to Migrate: Evidence from Mexico
- 2015
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We analyze the effects of the increase in China’s import competition on Mexican domestic and international migration. We exploit the variation in exposure to competition from China, following its accession to the WTO in 2001, across Mexican municipalities and estimate the effect of international competition on the individual decision to migrate. Controlling for individual and municipality features, we find that individuals living in municipalities more exposed to Chinese import competition are more likely to migrate to other municipalities within Mexico, while a negative effect is found on the decision to migrate to the US. In particular, we find that Chinese import competition reduces migrants’ negative self-selection: the rising international competition lowers the likelihood of low-educated, low-income people to migrate to the US, by making them more financially constrained.
|
|
| 16116. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
-
International Import Competition and the Decision to Migrate : Evidence from Mexico
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Journal of Development Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3878. ; 132, s. 75-87
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyze the effects of the increase in China’s import competition on Mexican domestic and international migration. We exploit the variation in exposure to competition from China, following its accession to the WTO in 2001, across Mexican municipalities and estimate the effect of international competition on the individual decision to migrate. Controlling for individual and municipality features, we find that individuals living in municipalities more exposed to Chinese import competition are more likely to migrate to other municipalities within Mexico, while a negative effect is found on the decision to migrate to the US. In particular, we find that Chinese import competition reduces migrants’ negative self-selection: the rising international competition lowers the likelihood of low-educated, low-income people to migrate to the US, by making them more financially constrained. We do not find any evidence that changes in demand for Mexican workers in the US drive our results.
|
|
| 16117. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh
(författare)
-
Labor Market Opportunities and Women’s Decision Making Power within Households
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Journal of Development Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3878. ; 119, s. 34-47
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the perceived importance of labor market opportunities in shaping married women’s outside option, and their bargaining power within households as a result, this link has received very little empirical attention. Using longitudinal data on who makes the decision on a wide range of issues within Mexican households and data from the administrative records of the Mexican Social Security Institute, this paper identifies the effects of relative changes in labor market opportunities for men and women on both working and non-working women’s decision making power. I find that increases in labor market opportunities improve women’s decision-making power as well as children’s health. Using differential labor demand shocks across Mexican industries caused by China’s admission to the WTO gives similar results.
|
|
| 16118. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
-
Poor Little Rich Kids? The Role of Nature versus Nurture in Wealth and Other Economic Outcomes and Behaviors
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Review of Economic Studies. - 0034-6527.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wealth is highly correlated between parents and their children; however, little is known about the extent to which these relationships are genetic or determined by environmental factors. We use administrative data on the net wealth of a large sample of Swedish adoptees merged with similar information for their biological and adoptive parents. Comparing the relationship between the wealth of adopted and biological parents and that of the adopted child, we find that, even prior to any inheritance, there is a substantial role for environment and a much smaller role for pre-birth factors and we find little evidence that nature/nurture interactions are important. When bequests are taken into account, the role of adoptive parental wealth becomes much stronger. Our findings suggest that wealth transmission is not primarily because children from wealthier families are inherently more talented or more able but that, even in relatively egalitarian Sweden, wealth begets wealth. We further build on the existing literature by providing a more comprehensive view of the role of nature and nurture on intergenerational mobility, looking at a wide range of different outcomes using a common sample and method. We find that environmental influences are relatively more important for wealth-related variables such as savings and investment decisions than for human capital. We conclude by studying consumption as an overall measure of welfare and find that, like wealth, it is more determined by environment than by biology.
|
|
| 16119. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
-
Public opinion, racial bias and labour market outcomes in the USA
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - 2397-3374. ; 8:8, s. 1493-1505
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here we study the role of negative shifts in public opinion in the economic lives of under-represented racial groups by investigating sudden changes in views towards Asian people following the anti-Chinese rhetoric that emerged with the COVID-19 pandemic, and associated changes in employment status and earnings in the US labour market. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we find that, unlike other under-represented groups, Asian workers in occupations or industries with a higher likelihood of face-to-face interactions before the pandemic were more likely to become unemployed afterwards. While widespread along the political spectrum, negative shifts in the perceived favourability of Asian people, and not of other under-represented groups, were much stronger among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and could have been more influenced by the anti-Asian rhetoric.
|
|
| 16120. |
- Majlesi, Kaveh, et al.
(författare)
-
Stock Market Returns and Consumption
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Finance. - : Wiley. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper employs Swedish data on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We instrument the actual capital gains and dividend payments with past portfolio weights. Unrealized capital gains lead to a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 23 percent for the bottom 50% of the wealth distribution and about 3 percent for the top 30% of the wealth distribution. Households’ consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts across all parts of the wealth distribution. Our findings are consistent with households treating capital gains and dividends as separate sources of income.
|
|
