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- GBD 2021 Demographics Collaborators, -, et al.
(författare)
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- King, Carina, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19—a very visible pandemic
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 396:10248, s. 15-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Beard, David J., et al.
(författare)
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Considerations and methods for placebo controls in surgical trials (ASPIRE guidelines)
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 395:10226, s. 828-838
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Placebo comparisons are increasingly being considered for randomised trials assessing the efficacy of surgical interventions. The aim of this Review is to provide a summary of knowledge on placebo controls in surgical trials. A placebo control is a complex type of comparison group in the surgical setting and, although powerful, presents many challenges. This Review outlines what a placebo control entails and present understanding of this tool in the context of surgery. We consider when placebo controls in surgery are acceptable (and when they are desirable) in terms of ethical arguments and regulatory requirements, how a placebo control should be designed, how to identify and mitigate risk for participants in these trials, and how such trials should be done and interpreted. Use of placebo controls is justified in randomised controlled trials of surgical interventions provided there is a strong scientific and ethical rationale. Surgical placebos might be most appropriate when there is poor evidence for the efficacy of the procedure and a justified concern that results of a trial would be associated with high risk of bias, particularly because of the placebo effect. Feasibility work is recommended to optimise the design and implementation of randomised controlled trials. This Review forms an outline for best practice and provides guidance, in the form of the Applying Surgical Placebo in Randomised Evaluations (known as ASPIRE) checklist, for those considering the use of a placebo control in a surgical randomised controlled trial.
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| 6. |
- Dreyling, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Ibrutinib combined with immunochemotherapy with or without autologous stem-cell transplantation versus immunochemotherapy and autologous stem-cell transplantation in previously untreated patients with mantle cell lymphoma (TRIANGLE) : a three-arm, randomised, open-label, phase 3 superiority trial of the European Mantle Cell Lymphoma Network
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 403:10441, s. 2293-2306
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Adding ibrutinib to standard immunochemotherapy might improve outcomes and challenge autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) in younger (aged 65 years or younger) mantle cell lymphoma patients. This trial aimed to investigate whether the addition of ibrutinib results in a superior clinical outcome compared with the pre-trial immunochemotherapy standard with ASCT or an ibrutinib-containing treatment without ASCT. We also investigated whether standard treatment with ASCT is superior to a treatment adding ibrutinib but without ASCT. Methods: The open-label, randomised, three-arm, parallel-group, superiority TRIANGLE trial was performed in 165 secondary or tertiary clinical centres in 13 European countries and Israel. Patients with previously untreated, stage II–IV mantle cell lymphoma, aged 18–65 years and suitable for ASCT were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to control group A or experimental groups A+I or I, stratified by study group and mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index risk groups. Treatment in group A consisted of six alternating cycles of R-CHOP (intravenous rituximab 375 mg/m2 on day 0 or 1, intravenous cyclophosphamide 750 mg/m2 on day 1, intravenous doxorubicin 50 mg/m2 on day 1, intravenous vincristine 1·4 mg/m2 on day 1, and oral prednisone 100 mg on days 1–5) and R-DHAP (or R-DHAOx, intravenous rituximab 375 mg/m2 on day 0 or 1, intravenous or oral dexamethasone 40 mg on days 1–4, intravenous cytarabine 2 × 2 g/m2 for 3 h every 12 h on day 2, and intravenous cisplatin 100 mg/m2 over 24 h on day 1 or alternatively intravenous oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 on day 1) followed by ASCT. In group A+I, ibrutinib (560 mg orally each day) was added on days 1–19 of R-CHOP cycles and as fixed-duration maintenance (560 mg orally each day for 2 years) after ASCT. In group I, ibrutinib was given the same way as in group A+I, but ASCT was omitted. Three pairwise one-sided log-rank tests for the primary outcome of failure-free survival were statistically monitored. The primary analysis was done by intention-to-treat. Adverse events were evaluated by treatment period among patients who started the respective treatment. This ongoing trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02858258. Findings: Between July 29, 2016 and Dec 28, 2020, 870 patients (662 men, 208 women) were randomly assigned to group A (n=288), group A+I (n=292), and group I (n=290). After 31 months median follow-up, group A+I was superior to group A with 3-year failure-free survival of 88% (95% CI 84–92) versus 72% (67–79; hazard ratio 0·52 [one-sided 98·3% CI 0–0·86]; one-sided p=0·0008). Superiority of group A over group I was not shown with 3-year failure-free survival 72% (67–79) versus 86% (82–91; hazard ratio 1·77 [one-sided 98·3% CI 0–3·76]; one-sided p=0·9979). The comparison of group A+I versus group I is ongoing. There were no relevant differences in grade 3–5 adverse events during induction or ASCT between patients treated with R-CHOP/R-DHAP or ibrutinib combined with R-CHOP/R-DHAP. During maintenance or follow-up, substantially more grade 3–5 haematological adverse events and infections were reported after ASCT plus ibrutinib (group A+I; haematological: 114 [50%] of 231 patients; infections: 58 [25%] of 231; fatal infections: two [1%] of 231) compared with ibrutinib only (group I; haematological: 74 [28%] of 269; infections: 52 [19%] of 269; fatal infections: two [1%] of 269) or after ASCT (group A; haematological: 51 [21%] of 238; infections: 32 [13%] of 238; fatal infections: three [1%] of 238). Interpretation: Adding ibrutinib to first-line treatment resulted in superior efficacy in younger mantle cell lymphoma patients with increased toxicity when given after ASCT. Adding ibrutinib during induction and as maintenance should be part of first-line treatment of younger mantle cell lymphoma patients. Whether ASCT adds to an ibrutinib-containing regimen is not yet determined. Funding: Janssen and Leukemia & Lymphoma Society.
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| 7. |
- Edqvist, Malin, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of two midwives during the second stage of labour to reduce severe perineal trauma (Oneplus) : a multicentre, randomised controlled trial in Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 399:10331, s. 1242-1253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Severe perineal trauma (SPT) affecting the anal sphincter muscle complex is a serious complication following childbirth, associated with short-term and long-term maternal morbidity. Effective preventive strategies are still scarce. The aim of the Oneplus trial was to test the hypothesis that the presence of a second midwife during the second stage of labour, with the purpose of preventing SPT, would result in fewer injuries affecting the anal sphincter than if attended by one midwife.METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, controlled parallel group, unmasked trial done at five obstetric units in Sweden, women were randomly assigned to be assisted by either one or two midwives in late second stage. Nulliparous women and women planning the first vaginal birth after caesarean section who were age 18-47 years were randomly assigned to an intervention when reaching the second stage of labour. Further inclusion criteria were gestational week 37+0, carrying a singleton live fetus in vertex presentation, and proficiency in either Swedish, English, Arabic, or Farsi. Exclusion criteria were a multiple pregnancy, intrauterine fetal demise, a planned caesarean section, or women who were less than 37 weeks pregnant. Randomisation to the intervention group of two midwives or standard care group of one midwife (1:1) was done using a computer-based program and treatment groups were allocated by use of sealed opaque envelopes. All women and midwives were aware of the group assignment, but the statistician from Clinical Studies Forum South, who did the analyses, was masked to group assignment. Midwives were instructed to implement existing prevention models and the second midwife was to assist on instruction of the primary midwife, when asked. Midwives were also instructed to complete case report forms detailing assistance techniques and perineal trauma prevention techniques. The primary outcome was the proportion of women who had SPT, for which odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated, and logistic regression was done to adjust for study site. All analyses were done according to intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT0377096.FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2018, and March 21, 2020, 8866 women were assessed for eligibility, and 4264 met the inclusion criteria and agreed to participate. 3776 (88·5%) of 4264 women were randomly assigned to an intervention after reaching the second stage of labour. 1892 women were assigned to collegial assistance (two midwives) during the second stage of labour and 1884 women were assigned to standard care (one midwife). 13 women in each group did not meet the inclusion criteria and were excluded. After further exclusions, 1546 women spontaneously gave birth in the intervention group and 1513 in the standard care group. 1546 women in the intervention group and 1513 in the standard care group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis of the primary outcome. There was a significant reduction in SPT in the intervention group (3·9% [61 of 1546] vs 5·7% [86 of 1513]; adjusted OR 0·69 (0·49-0·97).INTERPRETATION: The presence of two midwives during the active second stage can reduce SPT in women giving birth for the first time.
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| 9. |
- Erlinge, David, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of vulnerable plaques and patients by intracoronary near-infrared spectroscopy and ultrasound (PROSPECT II) : a prospective natural history study
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 397:10278, s. 985-995
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and intravascular ultrasound are promising imaging modalities to identify non-obstructive plaques likely to cause coronary-related events. We aimed to assess whether combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound can identify high-risk plaques and patients that are at risk for future major adverse cardiac events (MACEs).Methods: PROSPECT II is an investigator-sponsored, multicentre, prospective natural history study done at 14 university hospitals and two community hospitals in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. We recruited patients of any age with recent (within past 4 weeks) myocardial infarction. After treatment of all flow-limiting coronary lesions, three-vessel imaging was done with a combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound catheter. Untreated lesions (also known as non-culprit lesions) were identified by intravascular ultrasound and their lipid content was assessed by NIRS. The primary outcome was the covariate-adjusted rate of MACEs (the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or progressive angina) arising from untreated non-culprit lesions during follow-up. The relations between plaques with high lipid content, large plaque burden, and small lumen areas and patient-level and lesion-level events were determined. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02171065.Findings: Between June 10, 2014, and Dec 20, 2017, 3629 non-culprit lesions were characterised in 898 patients (153 [17%] women, 745 [83%] men; median age 63 [IQR 55-70] years). Median follow-up was 3.7 (IQR 3.0-4.4) years. Adverse events within 4 years occurred in 112 (13.2%, 95% CI 11.0-15.6) of 898 patients, with 66 (8.0%, 95% CI 6.2-10.0) arising from 78 untreated non-culprit lesions (mean baseline angiographic diameter stenosis 46.9% [SD 15.9]). Highly lipidic lesions (851 [24%] of 3500 lesions, present in 520 [59%] of 884 patients) were an independent predictor of patient-level non-culprit lesion-related MACEs (adjusted odds ratio 2.27, 95% CI 1.25-4.13) and nonculprit lesion-specific MACEs (7.83, 4.12-14.89). Large plaque burden (787 [22%] of 3629 lesions, present in 530 [59%] of 898 patients) was also an independent predictor of non-culprit lesion-related MACEs. Lesions with both large plaque burden by intravascular ultrasound and large lipid-rich cores by NIRS had a 4-year non-culprit lesion-related MACE rate of 7.0% (95% CI 4.0-10.0). Patients in whom one or more such lesions were identified had a 4-year non-culprit lesion-related MACE rate of 13.2% (95% CI 9.4-17.6).Interpretation: Combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound detects angiographically non-obstructive lesions with a high lipid content and large plaque burden that are at increased risk for future adverse cardiac outcomes.
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| 10. |
- Figtree, Gemma A., et al.
(författare)
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Mortality in STEMI patients without standard modifiable risk factors : a sex-disaggregated analysis of SWEDEHEART registry data
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 397:10279, s. 1085-1094
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background In cardiovascular disease, prevention strategies targeting standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs; hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, and smoking) are crucial; however, myocardial infarction in the absence of SMuRFs is not infrequent. The outcomes of individuals without SMuRFs are not well known. Methods We retrospectively analysed adult patients with first-presentation ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using data from the Swedish myocardial infarction registry SWEDEHEART. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of adult patients (age >= 18 years) with and without SMuRFs were examined overall and by sex. Patients with a known history of coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days after STEMI presentation. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular mortality, heart failure, and myocardial infarction at 30 days. Endpoints were also examined up to discharge, and to the end of a 12-year follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare in-hospital mortality, and Cox-proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier analysis for long-term outcomes. Findings Between Jan 1, 2005, and May 25, 2018, 9228 (14.9%) of 62 048 patients with STEMI had no SMuRFs reaching diagnostic thresholds. Median age was similar between patients with SMuRFs and patients without SMuRFs (68 years [IQR 59-78]) vs 69 years [60-78], p<0.0001). SMuRF-less patients had a similar rate of percutaneous coronary intervention to those with at least one modifiable risk factor, but were significantly less likely to receive statins, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockade (ARB), or beta-blockers at discharge. By 30 days after presentation, all-cause mortality was significantly higher in SMuRF-less patients (hazard ratio 1.47 [95% CI 1.37-1.57], p<0.0001). SMuRF-less women had the highest 30-day mortality (381 [17.6%] of 2164), followed by women with SMuRFs (2032 [11.1%] of 18 220), SMuRF-less men (660 [9.3%] of 7064), and men with SMuRFs (2117 [6.1%] of 34 600). The increased risk of 30-day all-cause mortality in SMuRF-less patients remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, creatinine, and blood pressure, but was attenuated on inclusion of pharmacotherapy prescription (ACEI or ARB, beta-blocker, or statin) at discharge. Additionally, SMuRF-less patients had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital all-cause mortality than patients with one or more SMuRF (883 [9.6%] vs 3411 [6.5%], p<0.0001). Myocardial infarction and heart failure at 30 days were lower in SMuRF-less patients. All-cause mortality remained increased in the SMuRF-less group for more than 8 years in men and up to the 12-year endpoint in women. Interpretation Individuals who present with STEMI in the absence of SMuRFs have a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality, compared with those with at least one SMuRF, which was particularly evident in women. The increased early mortality rates are attenuated after adjustment for use of guideline-indicated treatments, highlighting the need for evidence-based pharmacotherapy during the immediate post-infarct period irrespective of perceived low risk. Copyright (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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