| 1. |
- Fang, Xin, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian model averaging method for evaluating associations between air pollution and respiratory mortality : a time-series study
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - London, England : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 6:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To demonstrate an application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) and provide a novel modelling technique to assess the association between inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and respiratory mortality in time-series studies.Design: A time-series study using regional death registry between 2009 and 2010.Setting: 8 districts in a large metropolitan area in Northern China.Participants: 9559 permanent residents of the 8 districts who died of respiratory diseases between 2009 and 2010.Main outcome measures: Per cent increase in daily respiratory mortality rate (MR) per interquartile range (IQR) increase of PM10 concentration and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) in single-pollutant and multipollutant (including NOx, CO) models.Results: The Bayesian model averaged GAMM (GAMM+ BMA) and the optimal GAMM of PM10, multipollutants and principal components (PCs) of multipollutants showed comparable results for the effect of PM10 on daily respiratory MR, that is, one IQR increase in PM10 concentration corresponded to 1.38% vs 1.39%, 1.81% vs 1.83% and 0.87% vs 0.88% increase, respectively, in daily respiratory MR. However, GAMM+ BMA gave slightly but noticeable wider CIs for the single-pollutant model (-1.09 to 4.28 vs -1.08 to 3.93) and the PCs-based model (-2.23 to 4.07 vs -2.03 vs 3.88). The CIs of the multiple-pollutant model from two methods are similar, that is, -1.12 to 4.85 versus -1.11 versus 4.83.Conclusions: The BMA method may represent a useful tool for modelling uncertainty in time-series studies when evaluating the effect of air pollution on fatal health outcomes.
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| 3. |
- Mariosa, Daniela, et al.
(författare)
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Antidiabetics, Statins, and the Risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Neurology. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 1351-5101 .- 1468-1331. ; 27:6, s. 1010-1016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Medications that are used for treatment of metabolic disorders have been suggested to be associated with the development of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).METHODS: To examine the associations of antidiabetics and statins with the subsequent risk of ALS we conducted a population-based nested case-control study of 2,475 Swedish residents diagnosed with ALS during July 2006-December 2013, and 12,375 population controls (five for each ALS case). We extracted from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register information on filled prescriptions of antidiabetics and statins for both cases and controls during the years before ALS diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for the associations of these medications with ALS risk.RESULTS: ALS patients were less likely to have been prescribed with antidiabetics, compared to controls (OR=0.76, 95%CI=0.65-0.90). Conversely, statins were not associated with ALS risk overall (OR=1.08, 95%CI=0.98-1.19), although a positive association was noted among women (OR=1.28, 95%CI=1.10-1.48). The latter association was mostly explained by ALS cases being more likely to have a first prescription of statins during the year before diagnosis, compared to controls (OR=2.54, 95%CI=1.84-3.49).CONCLUSIONS: The inverse association of antidiabetics with ALS is consistent with the previously reported inverse association between type 2 diabetes and ALS risk. The increase in prescription of statins during the year before ALS diagnosis deserves attention because it might reflect an acceleration of the course of ALS due to statin use.
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| 4. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 6. |
- Kennedy, Beatrice, 1982-
(författare)
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Childhood bereavement, stress resilience, and cancer risk : an integrated register-based approach
- 2018
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Accumulating evidence suggests that psychosocial stress and susceptibility to stressful exposures – stress resilience – influence the risk of various health outcomes, but the potential link with cancer occurrence is unclear. The aims of this thesis were to test if loss of a close relative, a marker of severe psychological stress, and stress resilience measured during late adolescence are associated with cancer risk later in life, as well as to explore potential underlying mechanisms. National registers provided information on childhood bereavement, defined as death of a first-degree relative, as well as a measure of psychological functioning relevant to stress resilience that was obtained from mandatory military enlistment assessments. In a cohort comprising all individuals born in Sweden during 1961-2002, we found that bereavement during childhood (up to age 18 years) was associated with increased risks of HPVrelated malignancies and pancreatic cancer. Parental loss during early adulthood (ages 18-40 years) also entails a raised risk of pancreatic cancer as well as for gastric and lung cancer. In a cohort of men born during 1973-1983, we observed that childhood bereavement is also associated with low stress resilience during late adolescence. In our third cohort study, comprising men born during 1952-1956, we found that low stress resilience compared with high, was associated with 5-fold and 3-fold increased risks of subsequent liver and lung cancer, respectively. In contrast, low stress resilience is associated with reduced risks for prostate cancer and malignant melanoma. Finally, in a cohort of twin conscripts born during 1959-1985 who completed a survey in 2005- 2006 covering use of addictive substances, we found that low stress resilience was also associated with a raised occurrence of hazardous use of alcohol, alcohol dependence, cigarette smoking and nicotine dependence, as well as with other drug use. We conclude that the observed links with cancer risk for stressful exposures and low stress resilience, may be explained, at least in part, by disadvantageous health behavior.
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| 8. |
- Song, Huan, et al.
(författare)
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Stress related disorders and subsequent risk of life threatening infections : population based sibling controlled cohort study
- 2019
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Ingår i: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833 .- 0959-8138. ; 367
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To assess whether severe psychiatric reactions to trauma and other adversities are associated with subsequent risk of life threatening infections.DESIGN: Population and sibling matched cohort study.SETTING: Swedish population.PARTICIPANTS: 144 919 individuals with stress related disorders (post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), acute stress reaction, adjustment disorder, and other stress reactions) identified from 1987 to 2013 compared with 184 612 full siblings of individuals with a diagnosed stress related disorder and 1 449 190 matched individuals without such a diagnosis from the general population.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A first inpatient or outpatient visit with a primary diagnosis of severe infections with high mortality rates (ie, sepsis, endocarditis, and meningitis or other central nervous system infections) from the Swedish National Patient Register, and deaths from these infections or infections of any origin from the Cause of Death Register. After controlling for multiple confounders, Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios of these life threatening infections.RESULTS: The average age at diagnosis of a stress related disorder was 37 years (55 541, 38.3% men). During a mean follow-up of eight years, the incidence of life threatening infections per 1000 person years was 2.9 in individuals with a stress related disorder, 1.7 in siblings without a diagnosis, and 1.3 in matched individuals without a diagnosis. Compared with full siblings without a diagnosis of a stress related disorder, individuals with such a diagnosis were at increased risk of life threatening infections (hazard ratio for any stress related disorder was 1.47 (95% confidence intervals1.37 to 1.58) and for PTSD was 1.92 (1.46 to 2.52)). Corresponding estimates in the population based analysis were similar (1.58 (1.51 to 1.65) for any stress related disorder, P=0.09 for difference between sibling and population based comparison, and 1.95 (1.66 to 2.28) for PTSD, P=0.92 for difference). Stress related disorders were associated with all studied life threatening infections, with the highest relative risk observed for meningitis (sibling based analysis 1.63 (1.23 to 2.16)) and endocarditis (1.57 (1.08 to 2.30)). Younger age at diagnosis of a stress related disorder and the presence of psychiatric comorbidity, especially substance use disorders, were associated with higher hazard ratios, whereas use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the first year after diagnosis of a stress related disorder was associated with attenuated hazard ratios.CONCLUSION: In the Swedish population, stress related disorders were associated with a subsequent risk of life threatening infections, after controlling for familial background and physical or psychiatric comorbidities.
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| 9. |
- Sun, Jiangwei, et al.
(författare)
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Hospital-treated infections in early- and mid-life and risk of Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis : A nationwide nested case-control study in Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 19:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Experimental observations have suggested a role of infection in the etiology of neurodegenerative disease. In human studies, however, it is difficult to disentangle whether infection is a risk factor or rather a comorbidity or secondary event of neurodegenerative disease. To this end, we examined the risk of 3 most common neurodegenerative diseases in relation to previous inpatient or outpatient episodes of hospital-treated infections.Methods and findings: We performed a nested case-control study based on several national registers in Sweden. Cases were individuals newly diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) during 1970 to 2016 in Sweden, identified from the National Patient Register. For each case, 5 controls individually matched to the case on sex and year of birth were randomly selected from the general population. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment for potential confounders, including sex, year of birth, area of residence, educational attainment, family history of neurodegenerative disease, and Charlson comorbidity index. Infections experienced within 5 years before diagnosis of neurodegenerative disease were excluded to reduce the influence of surveillance bias and reverse causation. The analysis included 291,941 AD cases (median age at diagnosis: 76.2 years; male: 46.6%), 103,919 PD cases (74.3; 55.1%), and 10,161 ALS cases (69.3; 56.8%). A hospital-treated infection 5 or more years earlier was associated with an increased risk of AD (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.18, P < 0.001) and PD (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.06, P < 0.001). Similar results were observed for bacterial, viral, and other infections and among different sites of infection including gastrointestinal and genitourinary infections. Multiple infections before age 40 conveyed the greatest risk of AD (OR = 2.62, 95% CI: 2.52 to 2.72, P < 0.001) and PD (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.53, P < 0.001). The associations were primarily due to AD and PD diagnosed before 60 years (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.89 to 1.98 for AD, P < 0.001; OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.36 for PD, P < 0.001), whereas no association was found for those diagnosed at 60 years or older (OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.01 for AD, P = 0.508; OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.03 for PD, P = 0.382). No association was observed for ALS (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.03, P = 0.384), regardless of age at diagnosis. Excluding infections experienced within 10 years before diagnosis of neurodegenerative disease confirmed these findings. Study limitations include the potential misclassification of hospital-treated infections and neurodegenerative diseases due to incomplete coverage of the National Patient Register, as well as the residual confounding from unmeasured risk or protective factors for neurodegenerative diseases.Conclusions: Hospital-treated infections, especially in early- and mid-life, were associated with an increased risk of AD and PD, primarily among AD and PD cases diagnosed before 60 years. These findings suggest that infectious events may be a trigger or amplifier of a preexisting disease process, leading to clinical onset of neurodegenerative disease at a relatively early age. However, due to the observational nature of the study, these results do not formally prove a causal link.
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