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- Zamac, Jovan, et al.
(författare)
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Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector.
- 2010
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Ingår i: European Journal of Population. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0168-6577 .- 1572-9885. ; 26:2, s. 183-205
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caughtin a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would besocial interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interactionmechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-basedsimulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growthand population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policysetup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costslinked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are theninsufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarilyenables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing theadaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.
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