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| 2. |
- Andersson, Thomas
(författare)
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Foreign direct investment in competing host countries : a study of taxation and nationalization
- 1989
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Capital-importing countries face a trade-off between the need to attract new investment and the desire to extract gains from investment already obtained. This dissertation analyses the developing countries’ taxation and nationalization of direct investment from the late 1960s and onwards. In contrast to previous work, it is considered that the developing countries compete with each other in their interaction with multinational enterprises. Using sequential bargaining games, two theoretical chapters determine the distribution of gains from direct investment through taxation and nationalization. One chapter adds external effects on the environment, casting light on when and why host countries may accept pollution as a price for obtaining direct investment. Finally, model based tests explain which countries nationalized in the 1970s, and why the nationalization policy was largely discounted in the late 1970s. The study suggests that host country policies which manipulate the behavour of multinational enterprises do not normally prevent direct investment from being undertaken, or distort the pattern of investment. Policies which interfere with ownership, on the other hand, may prevent and distort direct investment. Two states may be distinguished. The first, in which many countries nationalize, applies to the early 1970s. The second, in which few countries nationalize, has prevailed from the late 1970s. The findings of the study yield certain policy implications. The risk of a wide spread return to nationalization subsequent to an investment revival may not be curbed by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), established as a member of the World Bank Group in 1988. A solution is likely to require measures that alleviate the developing countries’ acute scarcity of foreign exchange.
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| 3. |
- Andréasson, Ing-Marie
(författare)
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Costs of controls on farmers' use of nitrogen : a study applied to Gotland
- 1988
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The purpose of this thesis is to compare policy instruments with respect to cost efficiency, income distribution effects, technological change and violation incentives. The policy instruments under study are quota, charge and permit market system. The analysis is applied to Gotland, an island in the Baltic where the content of nitrate in drinking water is high. As in many other agricultural districts, the source of pollution is farmers’ use of nitrogen. According to the results, a permit market performs best with respect to cost efficiency and income distribution effects. The empirical calculations show that a permit market system may amount to half the cost of the most expensive alternative. All three policy instruments are found to encourage technological change, although to different degrees. In most instances the incentives for technological adjustments are highest for the charge and permit market systems. The incentives to violate regulations may be the smallest under a permit market system. But they can also be higher and of the same magnitude as under a charge system. The main reason for this variation is that the occurrence of illegal use of nitrogen affects the marketclearing price of permits. This, in turn, may reduce the economic incentives to violate regulations of a permit market system.
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| 4. |
- Bergström, Clas
(författare)
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Supply disruptions and the allocation of emergency reserves
- 1985
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This dissertation considers a country that faces uncertain and intermittent disruptions of a single import. It focuses on the possibility of stockpiling the good to hedge against the adverse effects of interrupted supplies. The following normative questions are addressed: How much of the good should be stockpiled in the light of the perceived threat of supply disruptions? How should inventories be used (priced) during a supply disruption? How much worse off is the country when it is subject to interrupted supplies? The optimal allocation of emergency reserves is contrasted with the market allocation. Certain specific conditions have to be specified if the market economy is to be able to replicate the optimal stockpiling and stock withdrawal policies. We investigate the bias that arises in an actual market economy lacking a complete set of risk and future markets. Obviously, an omniscient plannr can do better than an actual market economy. But what about the "real world" planner? To make a fair test of the welfare properties of private stockpiling we restrict the planner to operate only on the markets that do exist. That is, we place the planner and the market in a symmetric position with respect to the transaction technology. When we discuss practical planning problems an alternative restriction is imposed on the planner. In dealing with the problem of allocating a government controlled strategic reserve we consider the limitations on the information available to the planner about the demand conditions for the good.
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| 5. |
- Björklund, Anders
(författare)
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Studies in the dynamics of unemployment
- 1981
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- From chapter 1: The point of departure for the collection of studies presented in the following is the message delivered by American economists during the beginning of the 70’s that a proper understanding of the unemployment problem requires a dynamic view of the labor market in general and unemployment in particular. The "dynamic view" should emphasize the flows into and out of unemployment. By analyzing these flows a better understanding should be obtained of (i) the causes of unemployment and (ii) the welfare consequences of unemployment. The first study, presented in Chapter 2, aims at giving an empirical picture of "the dynamics of unemployment" in Sweden. Several decompositions of unemployment, which highlight the causes and welfare implications of unemployment, are made. In Chapter 3 one possible explanation to the longer unemployment spells during the seventies is examined, namely the unemployment benefits which were extended in different ways for different groups both in 1968 and in 1974. The analytical approach in the chapter is to analyze the "surviving rates" of the unemployed, i.e. the probability of remaining unemployed from one period (quarter) to the next. In Chapter 4 the same analytical approach is applied to the analysis of the cyclical fluctuations of unemployment spells. The search theoretic literature has suggested two different explanations of these cyclical fluctuations; one has emphasized the importance of inflationary surprises and the other the quantity-rationing constraints facing the unemployed. The empirical importance of these comparative explanations are analyzed using Swedish and U.S. data. A model of the "transition rate" for the unemployed, which captures both mechanisms, is specified. The study in Chapter 5 aims at giving an improved empirical picture of unemployment as a welfare and distributional problem. The first issue analyzed is whether unemployment has deleterious effects on individuals’ subsequent labor market prospects, in particular the subsequent wage level. The second issue analyzed is whether unemployment tends to hit the relatively low-paid in the labor force. The issue whether unemployment duration rather than the stock of unemployed should be the guideline for labor market policy is also discussed in the chapter. In Chapter 6, finally, some important topics for future research in this field are dicussed.
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| 8. |
- Claesson, Kerstin
(författare)
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Effektiviteten på Stockholms fondbörs
- 1987
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Ordet effektivitet används i en speciell betydelse inom kapitalmarknadsforskningen. På en effektiv kapitalmarknad avspeglas all information omedelbart i priserna. Effektiva kapitalmarknader är en förutsättning för att nytt kapital ska fördelas på ett samhällsekonomiskt riktigt sätt. På en effektiv marknad kan en placerare inte få högre avkastning än normalt genom att söka efter ny information. Avhandlingen innehåller sex undersökningar av effektiviteten på Stockholms Fondbörs. Tre av dem försöker besvara frågan om historiska aktiekurser kan användas för att förutsäga kommande kursrörelser. Först beräknas några statistiska mått på beroendet mellan historiska och framtida kurser. Därefter undersöks en teknisk analysmetod, filterregeln. Dess köp- och säljsignaler genereras av den tidigare kursutvecklingen. På en effektiv aktiemarknad ska inte denna typ av teknisk analys löna sig. Under 1980-talet har ett antal anomalier i aktieprisbildningen upptäckts på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden. Anomalierna innebär att aktieavkastningen skiljer sig från det normala under vissa, lätt identifierbara, tidsperioder. Detta är den första undersökningen av anomalier på den svenska aktiemarknaden. De anomalier som studeras är veckodagseffekten, årsskifteseffekten och ex-dagseffekten. (Ex-dagen är den dag en aktie på börsen noteras exklusive t ex utdelning eller delrätt.)
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| 9. |
- Edlund, Per-Olov
(författare)
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On identification of transfer function models by biased regression methods
- 1989
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Ingår i: Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. - : Taylor & Francis: STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles. - 1563-5163 .- 0094-9655. ; 31:3, s. 131-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates a biased regression approach to the preliminary estimation of the Box-Jenkins transfer function weights. Using statistical simulation to generate time series, 14 estimators (various OLS, ridge and principal components estimators) are compared in terms of MSE and standard error of the weight estimators. The estimators are investigated for different levels of multicollinearity, signal-to-noise ratio, number of independent variables, length of time series and number of lags included in the estimation. The results show that the ridge estimators nearly always give lower MSE than the OLSestimator, and in the computationally difficult cases give much lower MSE than the OLS estimator. The principal components estimators can give lower MSE than the OLS, but also higher values. All biased estimators nearly always give much lower estimated standard error than OLS when estimating the weights.
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| 10. |
- Edlund, Per-Olov
(författare)
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Preliminary estimation of transfer function weights : a two-step regression approach
- 1989
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In economic time series modelling, dynamic relationships frequently have to be modelled where the explanatory variables influence the dependent variable over more than one period. Such dynamic relationships are found in business cycle forecasting with leading indicators, in marketing models describing the relationship between advertising and sales, and in many traditional econometric models. In this dissertation the transfer function model proposed by Box and Jenkins is used to describe the dynamic structure. There are several approaches that could be used to specify the model. A two-step regression approach is proposed by the author and tested by three simulation studies. Finally, the regression approach and two other approaches are used to identify transfer function models for the Swedish Index of Industrial Production using financial variables as leading indicators.
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