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Sökning: FÖRF:(Anders Lundström) > Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet

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1.
  • Petersson, Hans, et al. (författare)
  • On the role of forests and the forest sector for climate change mitigation in Sweden
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: GCB Bioenergy. - : Wiley. - 1757-1707 .- 1757-1693. ; 14:7, s. 793-813
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We analyse the short- and long-term consequences for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations of forest management strategies and forest product uses in Sweden by comparing the modelled consequences of forest resource use vs. increased conservation at different levels of GHG savings from carbon sequestration and product substitution with bioenergy and other forest products. Increased forest set-asides for conservation resulted in larger GHG reductions only in the short term and only when substitution effects were low. In all other cases, forest use was more beneficial. In all scenarios, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration rates declined in conservation forests as they mature, eventually approaching a steady state. Forest set-asides are thus associated with increasing opportunity costs corresponding to foregone wood production and associated mitigation losses. Substitution and sequestration rates under all other forest management strategies rise, providing support for sustained harvest and cumulative mitigation gains. The impact of increased fertilization was everywhere beneficial to the climate and surpassed the mitigation potential of the other scenarios. Climate change can have large—positive or negative—influence on outcomes. Despite uncertainties, the results indicate potentially large benefits from forest use for wood production. These benefits, however, are not clearly linked with forestry in UNFCCC reporting, and the European Union's Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry carbon accounting, framework may even prevent their full realization. These reporting and accounting frameworks may further have the consequence of encouraging land set-asides and reduced forest use at the expense of future biomass production. Further, carbon leakage and resulting biodiversity impacts due to increased use of more GHG-intensive products, including imported products associated with deforestation and land degradation, are inadequately assessed. Considerable opportunity to better mobilize the climate change mitigation potential of Swedish forests therefore remains.
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2.
  • Norden, Jenni, et al. (författare)
  • Occupancy versus colonization-extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : WILEY. - 2045-7758. ; 10:6, s. 3079-3089
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood-dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large-scale occupancies of species with differing landscape-scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization-extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine- or coarse-resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization-extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization-extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization-extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource-unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity.
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3.
  • Gustavsson, Leif, 1954-, et al. (författare)
  • Climate change effects of forestry and substitution of carbon-intensive materials and fossil fuels
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. - : Elsevier. - 1364-0321 .- 1879-0690. ; 67:January, s. 612-624
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We estimate the climate effects of directing forest management in Sweden towards increased carbon storage in forests with more land set-aside for protection, or towards increased forest production for the substitution of carbon-intensive materials and fossil fuels, relative to a reference case of current forest management. We develop various scenarios of forest management and biomass use to estimate the carbon balances of the forest systems, including ecological and technological components, and their impacts on the climate in terms of radiative forcing. The scenario with increased set-aside area and the current level of forest residue harvest resulted in lower cumulative carbon emissions compared to the reference case for the first 90 years, but then showed higher emissions as reduced forest harvest led to higher carbon emissions from energy and material systems. For the reference case of current forest management, increased harvest of forest residues gave increased climate benefits. The most climatically beneficial alternative, expressed as reduced cumulative radiative forcing, in both the short and long terms is a strategy aimed at high forest production, high residue recovery rate, and high efficiency utilization of harvested biomass. Active forest management with high harvest levels and efficient forest product utilization will provide more climate benefit, compared to reducing harvest and storing more carbon in the forest.
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4.
  • Lundström, Anders, et al. (författare)
  • Sweden
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Forest inventory-based projection systems for wood and biomass availability. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 9783319561998 ; :29, s. 289-301
  • Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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5.
  • Mair, Louise, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluating citizen science data for forecasting species responses to national forest management
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 7, s. 368-378
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of many citizen science datasets (CSD) makes them appealing for use in species distribution modeling and forecasting. However, a frequent limitation is the inability to validate results. Here, we aim to assess the reliability of CSD for forecasting species occurrence in response to national forest management projections (representing 160,366km2) by comparison against forecasts from a model based on systematically collected colonization-extinction data. We fitted species distribution models using citizen science observations of an old-forest indicator fungus Phellinus ferrugineofuscus. We applied five modeling approaches (generalized linear model, Poisson process model, Bayesian occupancy model, and two MaxEnt models). Models were used to forecast changes in occurrence in response to national forest management for 2020-2110. Forecasts of species occurrence from models based on CSD were congruent with forecasts made using the colonization-extinction model based on systematically collected data, although different modeling methods indicated different levels of change. All models projected increased occurrence in set-aside forest from 2020 to 2110: the projected increase varied between 125% and 195% among models based on CSD, in comparison with an increase of 129% according to the colonization-extinction model. All but one model based on CSD projected a decline in production forest, which varied between 11% and 49%, compared to a decline of 41% using the colonization-extinction model. All models thus highlighted the importance of protected old forest for P.ferrugineofuscus persistence. We conclude that models based on CSD can reproduce forecasts from models based on systematically collected colonization-extinction data and so lead to the same forest management conclusions. Our results show that the use of a suite of models allows CSD to be reliably applied to land management and conservation decision making, demonstrating that widely available CSD can be a valuable forecasting resource.
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6.
  • Lundström, Anders, et al. (författare)
  • Overview of methods and tools for evaluating future woody biomass availability in European countries
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Annals of Forest Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1286-4560 .- 1297-966X. ; 73, s. 823-837
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This analysis of the tools and methods currently in use for reporting woody biomass availability in 21 European countries has shown that most countries use, or are developing, National Forest Inventory-oriented models whereas the others use standwise forest inventory--oriented methods.Knowledge of realistic and sustainable wood availability in Europe is highly relevant to define climate change mitigation strategies at national and European level, to support the development of realistic targets for increased use of renewable energy sources and of industry wood. Future scenarios at European level highlight a deficit of domestic wood supply compared to wood consumption, and some European countries state they are harvesting above the increment.Several country-level studies on wood availability have been performed for international reporting. However, it remains essential to improve the knowledge on the projection methods used across Europe to better evaluate forecasts.Analysis was based on descriptions supplied by the national correspondentsinvolved in USEWOOD COST Action (FP1001), and further enriched with additionaldata from international reports that allowedcharacterisation of the forests in these countries for the same base year.Methods currently used for projecting wood availability were described for 21 European countries. Projection systems based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) data prevail over methods based on forest management plans. Only a few countries lack nationwide projection tools, still using tools developed for specific areas.A wide range of NFI-based systems for projecting wood availability exists, being under permanent improvement. The validation of projection forecasts and the inclusion of climate sensitive growth models into these tools are common aims for most countries. Cooperation among countries would result in higher efficiency when developing and improving projection tools and better comparability among them.
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7.
  • Nordström, Eva-Maria, et al. (författare)
  • Impacts of global climate change mitigation scenarios on forests and harvesting in Sweden
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Canadian Journal of Forest Research. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 0045-5067 .- 1208-6037. ; 46:12, s. 1427-1438
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Under climate change, the importance of biomass resources is likely to increase and new approaches are needed to analyze future material and energy use of biomass globally and locally. Using Sweden as an example, we present an approach that combines global and national land-use and forest models to analyze impacts of climate change mitigation ambitions on forest management and harvesting in a specific country. National forest impact analyses in Sweden have traditionally focused on supply potential with little reference to international market developments. In this study, we use the global greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change to estimate global biomass demand and assess potential implications on harvesting and biodiversity in Sweden. The results show that the short-term demand for wood is close to the full harvesting potential in Sweden in all scenarios. Under high bioenergy demand, harvest levels are projected to stay high over a longer time and particularly impact the harvest levels of pulpwood. The area of old forest in the managed landscape may decrease. This study highlights the importance of global scenarios when discussing national-level analysis and pinpoints trade-offs that policy making in Sweden may need to tackle in the near future.
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10.
  • Lundmark, Tomas, et al. (författare)
  • Potential Roles of Swedish Forestry in the Context of Climate Change Mitigation
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Forests. - Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907 .- 1999-4907. ; 5:4, s. 557-578
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In Sweden, where forests cover more than 60% of the land area, silviculture and the use of forest products by industry and society play crucial roles in the national carbon balance. A scientific challenge is to understand how different forest management and wood use strategies can best contribute to climate change mitigation benefits. This study uses a set of models to analyze the effects of different forest management and wood use strategies in Sweden on carbon dioxide emissions and removals through 2105. If the present Swedish forest use strategy is continued, the long-term climate change mitigation benefit will correspond to more than 60 million tons of avoided or reduced emissions of carbon dioxide annually, compared to a scenario with similar consumption patterns in society but where non-renewable products are used instead of forest-based products. On average about 470 kg of carbon dioxide emissions are avoided for each cubic meter of biomass harvested, after accounting for carbon stock changes, substitution effects and all emissions related to forest management and industrial processes. Due to Sweden’s large export share of forest-based products, the climate change mitigation effect of Swedish forestry is larger abroad than within the country. The study also shows that silvicultural methods to increase forest biomass production can further reduce net carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 40 million tons of per year. Forestry’s contribution to climate change mitigation could be significantly increased if management of the boreal forest were oriented towards increased biomass production and if more wood were used to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials.
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